New Stock Outlook | Noble Confronts Table Again: Can the Imagination Space of "AI+" Save the Performance of "Paper Wealth"?

The global AI start-up market from 2023 to 2025 presents an unprecedented situation of both ice and fire. According to incomplete statistics, in 2024, the number of new registered AI companies in China exceeded 237,000, but the number of closed companies reached 80,000, with an industry elimination rate of as high as 33.8%. Behind this intense volatility is the fierce collision between capital frenzy and the technological application gap. The "hot wind" of artificial intelligence continues to surge in the secondary market. According to the Hong Kong stock exchange's disclosure on May 14th, Nobikan Artificial Intelligence Technology (Chengdu) Co., Ltd. (referred to as Nobikan) submitted an application for listing on the main board of the Hong Kong stock exchange, with CICC as the exclusive sponsor. The company previously submitted an application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on November 12, 2024. Performance remains "rich on paper" The prospectus shows that Nobikan was established in 2015, focusing mainly on advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence and digital twins, and industrial applications in AI + transportation, AI + energy, and AI + urban governance. It provides integrated solutions based on AI industry models to achieve intelligent monitoring, detection, and operation empowerment for customers in the transportation, energy, and city management fields. According to Zhoshi Consulting, in terms of revenue for 2023, the company is the seventh largest provider of AI + detection monitoring solutions in the Chinese rail transport industry. Nobikan's three-tier business model includes "NBK-INTARI Artificial Intelligence Platform - AI Industry Model - AI + Solution." The NBK-INTARI Artificial Intelligence platform is the backbone of its business model, with underlying general technology for generating different AI industry models. The generalization of technological capabilities has brought significant performance growth to Nobikan. From 2022 to 2024 (referred to as the reporting period below), Nobikan's operating income was 253 million yuan, 364 million yuan, and 403 million yuan respectively; and with the reuse of underlying technology, the overall gross profit margin showed an upward trend, increasing from 55.6% in 2022 to 58.9% in 2024. Close to 60% of the overall gross profit margin is still only the performance of Nobikan under the "burden" of new business; the core and earliest involvement of the company's business has a gross profit margin comparable to Maotai, with the gross profit margin of "AI+ transportation" maintained at around 90% from 2022 to 2023. It is noteworthy that in 2024, the gross profit margin of AI+ transportation decreased by 21.6 percentage points year-on-year. Unfortunately, Nobikan's high gross profit margin has not been able to be "realized" in a timely manner, instead becoming a burden on business expansion. The prospectus shows that from 2022 to 2024, Nobikan's accounts receivable were 176 million yuan, 303 million yuan, and 474 million yuan respectively, accounting for 69.56%, 83.24%, and 118% of the revenue for each year. In short, during the period, the company was unable to collect seven to eight percent of its income, and in 2024, the accounts receivable even exceeded the revenue. Furthermore, the average turnover days of the company's trade receivables significantly increased, from 192 days in 2022 to 241 days in 2023, and further increased to 352 days in 2024. This has led to Nobikan's profits being temporarily only "on paper." During the reporting period, the company's net profit was 63 million yuan, 89 million yuan, and 126 million yuan, but the operating net cash flow for the same period was -81 million yuan, -100 million yuan, and 42 million yuan; this "cash-strapped business" model has made the company's funds extremely tight. One of the main reasons for the inability to "see money" is Nobikan's high dependence on customers, most of whom are government and enterprise units. From 2022 to 2024, revenue from the top five customers accounted for 61.1%, 85.9%, and 66.6% of total revenue, respectively. In the past few years, sales to the first largest customer were 70 million, 111 million, and 113 million yuan respectively, accounting for 27.8%, 30.5%, and 28.2% of total revenue. This weakness is due to the large number of participants in the same type of business and the extremely dispersed industry: for example, in the field of "AI + power system detection and monitoring solutions," Nobikan ranks second in the industry with a market share of 6.9%, but the top performer only has 11%, and the top five participants in the industry account for approximately 22%; and in the "AI + rail transportation" sector, the company ranks seventh in the industry with a market share of only 1.3%, with the top ten participants in the industry accounting for only about 20%. AI+ development space is considerable Competition pressure cannot be underestimated In the past few decades, artificial intelligence has evolved from a simple theoretical concept to practical applications in real life, playing an increasingly important role in multiple industries. The concept of "AI+" as an extension of professional applications of artificial intelligence in different industries has become a catalyst for new technologies, new models, and new ecosystems, as well as a key factor driving innovation for economical growth, bringing broader market opportunities to the industry. Taking the three major sub-markets of AI + transportation, Chinese AI + energy, and AI + urban city governance where Nobikan is located as examples, these industries all have considerable development space. According to Zhoshi Consulting, the market size of the Chinese AI + transportation solutions industry reached 238.4 billion yuan in 2023 and is expected to grow to 518.2 billion yuan by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 16.8%; the market size of the Chinese AI + energy solutions industry was 500 billion yuan in 2023, and is expected to grow to 1.1 trillion yuan by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 18.6%; and the market size of the Chinese AI + urban city governance solutions industry reached 600 billion yuan in 2023, and is expected to grow to 1.2 trillion yuan by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 14.0%. With huge imagination space, Nobikan naturally has reaped many dividends. Nobikan's business structure mainly consists of NBK-INTARI platform, AI industry models, and AI solutions, with the NBK-INTARI platform being the bottom-level technical platform for Nobikan, from which various AI industry models are generated; AI Industrial models are tailored to differThe algorithm model constructed for business scenarios undergoes continuous training with business scenario data and industry knowledge to address business problems in a single dimension or scenario. Different AI industry models are combined and interconnected to form an integrated AI solution for solving more comprehensive and complex business problems.However, upon further examination, Nobicon also faces significant development risks in the competitive landscape it operates in. Nobicon stated in its prospectus that the company needs to invest heavily in research and development (including financial resources) to lead technological advancements, in order to maintain market innovation and competitiveness of its products and services. As a result, the company expects its research and development expenses to continue increasing (in absolute terms). Due to the inherent uncertainty of research and development activities, there may be practical difficulties in commercializing the research and development outcomes, and the significant expenses incurred in research and development may not necessarily yield corresponding benefits. Furthermore, Nobicon also faces pressure for technological innovation. With the rapid growth of the artificial intelligence industry, customers have increasingly higher demands for AI solutions. Meanwhile, the artificial intelligence industry is highly competitive and fragmented, with more and more companies entering the field to compete for market share. This means that Nobicon needs to continuously enhance its technological innovation capabilities and market responsiveness to maintain its competitive advantage.