Confidence returns as the impact of tariffs eases, the global IPO market heats up again.

As the stock market rebounds from the disruption caused by US President Trump's excessive imposition of tariffs, the global IPO market is heating up again, with many companies seeking to complete deals before the summer and political tensions escalate with GEO Group Inc. After years of low IPO activity, bankers and investors were originally hopeful for 2025, but were also concerned about then-elected President Trump's tough stance on trade. Trump's announcement of tariffs on April 2 validated their concerns. Following his announcement, a series of suspended IPO projects led to the lowest level of IPO funding in April since the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020. Now, as tensions ease, IPOs in 2025 have raised $43.6 billion in funds so far, slightly below the same period last year, and frozen listing projects have finally resumed. This includes EToro Group (ETOR.US), an Israeli trading and investment platform that was one of the first companies to postpone its listing plans. A few days after the temporary agreement between China and the US, EToro's IPO in the US was priced above the guiding range, and its stock price soared 29% on the first day of trading. Also in the US market, the banking start-up Chime Financial is poised to complete the largest IPO in the US market this year before the summer lull. The company, valued at $25 billion in 2021, submitted its listing application this Tuesday and could potentially price the IPO as early as June. Online TV advertising platform MNTN and digital physical therapy company Hinge Health also launched their IPO projects in the US this week, pitching to investors. Keith Canton, head of US stock capital markets at J.P. Morgan, said, "Recent news has brought more market certainty. The worst tariff fears may not come to pass." Easing trade tensions boost IPO market recovery Concerns about the market's strong reaction to Trump's so-called "Liberation Day" raised worries that the IPO window could be closed for several months. Most companies planning to go public in the spring put their plans on hold. Reports stated that US ticketing platform StubHub Holdings and medical supplies company Medline Industries both paused their IPO. In Europe, investment company Greenbridge SA postponed its Stockholm listing. In Asia, there were reports that LG Electronics' Indian subsidiary, which had planned to raise $1.7 billion, paused its listing plan. A few weeks later, South Korean machine tool manufacturer DN Solutions Co. also halted its domestic issuance project, which aimed to raise $1.1 billion. As the first week of May approached, the chill in the US IPO market began to fade. As the stock market began to sporadically rebound, two insurance companies Aspen Insurance Holdings (AHL.US) and American Integrity Insurance Group (AII.US) moved forward with medium-sized IPOs, and both companies' stocks have risen since listing on May 8. Steven Halperin, co-head of capital markets at Moelis & Co., said, "Investors are willing to participate in IPOs as long as the theme is right." He added, "If you plan to IPO, you must prove to some extent that you are not affected by tariffs or economic downturns. The question is just how much of a discount is needed." The VIX fear index soared to above 60 the week before "Liberation Day," but then steadily declined, contributing to the IPO recovery. After the US and China announced a temporary 90-day suspension of mutual tariffs, the index fell below 20, a level that is usually seen as the threshold for investment banks to decide whether to proceed with an IPO. Now, as the market stabilizes further, IPOs are returning to their earlier pace, with projects like EToro restarting and MNTN and Hinge Health's listings potentially completing this month. Additionally, the rise in the price of Bitcoin may attract stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Group and cryptocurrency exchange Gemini to push their listing plans. However, for companies looking to go public in the US before the summer holidays, time is running out. The holidays in late May, June, and early July will compress the operating window, and as the 90-day tariff suspension period nears its end, companies preparing for listing will need to closely monitor negotiations. The urgent schedule may force some companies to choose to go public in the last few months of this year. Jimmy Williams, head of technology, media, and telecommunications equity capital markets at Jefferies Financial Group's West Coast, said, "Autumn will be an active period for tech company IPOs. The boards we're involved with are now looking more positively at IPO opportunities, especially in the short term." He currently expects the US to complete about 10 tech company IPOs this year, down from an initial forecast of 15 to 20. But he still believes this year will be better than 2024, saying, "The buyer risk appetite we're currently seeing is the strongest since 2021," and IPO fundraising that year set historical records. Although some companies have re-entered the IPO queue, investment banks warn that many companies significantly affected by supply chain bottlenecks or inflation threats caused by tariffs will remain on hold. According to sources, ticketing platform StubHub and payment giant Klarna Group, as well as medical supplies company Medline, seeking a valuation of up to $50 billion in their IPO, have not publicly announced that they have restarted their listing plans. Keith Canton said, "We will temporarily hold a wait-and-see attitude towards companies affected by tariffs, as their management teams still need to figure out how their cost structures are being affected, and buyers need to reflect this new information in valuations." Matt Fry, co-chair of the capital markets at Haynes Boone law firm, added:The general expectation we hear is that next year will be better than this year. But as the market improves and the economy may avoid a recession, we see that the IPO market is partially thawing.How are the performances of other IPO markets? Of course, some Chinese companies have successfully gone public without fear of tariffs impact from the beginning. In April, the second largest IPO on the US exchanges was Chinese tea chain brand Baronia Cha (CHA.US), raising $473 million. Chinese battery manufacturer Contemporary Amperex Technology is also preparing for listing in Hong Kong, which is expected to increase its global listing total by over $4 billion. Among the companies about to be listed in Hong Kong, a considerable number are from companies that have already listed in mainland China for a "secondary listing." According to analysts at CITIC SEC, since the fourth quarter of last year, 25 A-share companies have prepared to list in Hong Kong, and are expected to emerge in the second half of the year. Some Chinese companies planning to go public are able to deal with uncertainties around tariffs as they do not rely on exports to the US. Richard Wang, head of the Chinese equity market at law firm Freshfields, says these companies are mostly consumer enterprises benefiting from China's expanding domestic demand. Dan Ouyang, capital markets partner at Baker McKenzie, says, "Especially Chinese mainland technology and new economy companies are being attracted by recent successful technology IPOs and favorable policies of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange towards these companies." He added that the China Securities Regulatory Commission recently announced its support for local companies listing in Hong Kong, which will further drive this trend. Richard Wang says he is cautiously optimistic about the prospect of Chinese IPOs for the remainder of the year. He said, "The reason for caution is the volatility in the US market. We're talking about tariffs now, but no one knows what the next issue will be." The IPO enthusiasm in the Middle East remains high. The $1.1 billion IPO of Saudi low-cost airline Flynas received full subscription within a few minutes of its launch. Investment banks in the region say that the US tariffs have not had a significant impact on their trading projects. Compared to the US, the European IPO market has been relatively lackluster in recent years, but has shown a slight recovery after the pause on tariffs. Portuguese bank Novo Banco SA plans to go public in June, with a potential valuation of up to 7 billion. In London, Cobalt Holdings has applied for a $230 million IPO, which could be the largest since 2023. German company Autodoc SE and Swedish gaming developer Hacksaw also plan to go public in the coming months. India could be another bright spot market. Signs of a recovery in trading activity have begun to show, although fundraising levels have not yet reached last year's record. Data shows that Indian companies have raised a total of $8.5 billion through IPOs and follow-on issues this year, lower than the $19.4 billion raised in the same period last year. Pratik Loonker, head of equity markets at Axis Capital and co-head of the financial investor group, said that India may see major stock issuances in the second half of the year, even though tensions between India and Pakistan do not seem to affect the market. He said, "I don't think the market needs to worry about this issue for now. It's just a temporary fluctuation, and eventually fear will subside and greed will return."