U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, and Bitcoin rebound strongly, but skeptics closely watch for "signs of U.S. economic collapse".

When the US stock market rebounded significantly, corporate borrowing costs fell, and the US bond market stabilized, a group of Wall Street senior investors skilled in data analysis chose to stand on the sidelines. For example, Michael Mullaney, research director at Boston Partners, with assets of $110 billion, did not join the trend of rebounding risky assets. Instead, he is repeatedly reviewing various economic data, concerned that these data have already shown early signs of damage caused by Trump's trade war. Although the S&P 500 index was down less than 3% before Trump's tariff policy announcement, Bitcoin broke through $95,000, leading the way in risky assets. These analysts are focusing on less attention-grabbing but potentially indicative high-frequency indicators of long-term economic pain: shrinking shipping volume in Los Angeles, reduced travel-related travel, and declining credit card revenues in key consumption areas. "This impact will not disappear in 90 days," Mullaney calmly analyzed, "regardless of the final level of tariffs, it will have a significant impact on economic activities." He chose to hold cash, even though the cost of missing out on this rebound may be high, but he is concerned that the impact of trade hostility may have already deeply penetrated and may be difficult to avoid. Risk assets are on the rise, and market optimism returns In recent weeks, the overall sentiment in the US financial markets seems to have warmed up. The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond fell by more than 20 basis points in the past two weeks, alleviating concerns about massive foreign capital outflows, while the US dollar exchange rate stabilized. High-yield bond risk premiums recorded the largest narrowing since 2023, and credit volatility indicators significantly fell. Leveraged ETFs with a bullish bias attracted around $7 billion in funds over the past month, and the US dollar, US stocks, and US bonds all rose, marking the best coordinated trend so far this year, showing that most investors are embracing risky assets again. High-frequency data flashes a red light, economic activity significantly slows down However, Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, warned in a report that the number of container ships sailing from China to the US is "collapsing," predicting that consumers will face higher inflation, and truck transportation, logistics, and retail industries will see mass layoffs. Michael Feroli, chief US economist at JPMorgan, noted that high-frequency data has already shown a decline in international visitors, which will drag down economic growth. Jake Schurmeier, portfolio manager at Harbor Capital Advisors, said: "The economy before March hardly showed the substance impact of tariffs, but in April and May, we should begin to see the actual impact of tariffs on prices and quantities." Risk of recession rises, financial pressures on households intensify A Bloomberg economist survey shows that the median probability of the US economy falling into recession in the next 12 months has risen from 30% in March to 45%. Data released on Friday shows that US consumer confidence has dropped to near-term lows, and long-term inflation expectations have again jumped to levels not seen in decades. Corporate earnings reports are mixed, and the uncertainty about the impact of tariffs on companies remains uncertain. An index tracked by QI Research chief strategist Danielle DiMartino Booth shows that the number of households consulting bankruptcy lawyers has reached its highest level since the pandemic. "Loan standards are tightening, mortgage applications are being rejected, refinancing applications are being rejected, and there are no fiscal stimulus measures," she explained. Trump's policy swings exacerbate market uncertainty, investors lean towards defensive configurations, waiting for signals of economic landing Signals from Trump and Treasury Secretary Benson in recent weeks suggest that the White House may soften its tough stance on major economic partners, becoming a key factor driving market rebound. Trump said on Tuesday that he has no intention of firing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and is willing to "significantly" reduce the 145% tariffs on China. However, the optimism was quickly partially diminished - Trump then sent mixed signals about the negotiating status, while Benson clarified that the US was not seeking to unilaterally reduce tariffs on China, exacerbating market volatility caused by policy swings. Faced with an increasingly divided market outlook, investors are adjusting their strategies. Cliff Hodge of Huntersville, North Carolina, is using the rebound to reduce stock risk exposure while maintaining a defensive posture in fixed income. The Chief Investment Officer of Cornerstone Wealth stated: "Our high-frequency data points to an economic slowdown, but it is still too early to assert a full-scale recession." This article is selected from "Wall Street News", written by Gao Zhimou; edited by GMTEight: Ho Yu Cheng.