JF: The "highlight" of the US stock market is no longer, and the future market may continue to decline.
Christopher Wood, Global Head of Equities Strategy at Jefferies, stated that the golden age of the US stock market has already passed, and investors should prepare for further declines in US stocks, bonds, and the US dollar.
Christopher Wood, global equity strategist at Jefferies, said that the golden era of the US stock market is over and investors should be prepared for further declines in US stocks, US bonds, and the US dollar.
Wood pointed out that the market capitalization of US stocks in the MSCI All Country World Index reached a historically high level at the end of December last year. He believes that "US stocks have peaked" and compared it to the Japanese stock market in 1989, stating, "The US dollar has begun a long-term depreciation trend, which will reduce the percentage of US stock market capitalization in the global stock market."
Wood advised investors to consider increasing their exposure to Chinese, Indian, and European assets when rebalancing their portfolios.
His pessimistic outlook on the US market aligns with the prevailing pessimism worldwide. With President Donald Trump's chaotic implementation of tariff policies, there is growing belief that "American exceptionalism" is fading.
Wood mentioned that the market capitalization of US stocks accounts for about 60% - 70% of the total global stock market capitalization, but its share of the global economy is not as high. He said, "Compared to other markets, US stock valuations are at extreme levels. The same was true for the Japanese stock market at the end of 1989."
US stocks narrowly avoided a bear market, which is a stark contrast to the continuous rise earlier this year. The S&P 500 Index has rebounded from this month's low point, but is still down 8.6% year-to-date, underperforming major stock indices in Europe and China.
Wood stated, "The issue is not just US stocks falling, but also the rise of European, Chinese, and Indian stock markets."
Wood also mentioned that most global investors have not entered the Indian market. "I think they should. Any global emerging market investor tends to hold Indian-related assets, and I believe global funds should also allocate to Indian assets."
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