Which e-commerce stocks have the potential to outperform the market under the "tariff storm"? Key words revealed in the lengthy Goldman Sachs report: service consumption and leading e-commerce companies.

The financial giant Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. systematically analyzed the multi-dimensional impact of global tariff policy upgrades on the US e-commerce industry in a recent research report, focusing on changes in end-demand and the cost transmission mechanism of e-commerce under US tariff policies. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. research team, based on macroeconomic models, historical comparisons (referencing the 2007-2009 financial crisis), and high-frequency data tracking, predicted that the e-commerce sector in 2025 Q1 and Q2 would face downward profit expectations due to tariff costs, but structural investment opportunities exist in the future as consumers increasingly shift towards service-oriented consumption and e-commerce leaders demonstrate strong performance resilience. These flexible e-commerce stocks are expected to significantly outperform the US stock market - the S&P 500 index. In the US stock market, most e-commerce and retail stocks have been facing continued selling pressure since April, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 index. American Financial Group, Inc. has experienced a historically rare "triple kill" in the market, mainly due to global confidence in US dollar assets being undermined by the macroeconomic uncertainty caused by Trump's tariff policies, as well as Trump administration threats to greatly reduce the independence of the Federal Reserve by wanting to dismiss Powell, along with many investors betting on Trump's aggressive import tariff policies leading to a resurgence of inflation. This could potentially lead to US consumers, who have been struggling with high inflation in recent years, further cutting back on spending. Michigan University consumer survey data shows that consumer confidence index hit its lowest level since June 2022, with consumers' inflation expectations for the next year reaching the highest level since 1981. The New York Fed's March consumer expectations survey showed that consumers' confidence in their future financial situation deteriorated further, with the proportion of respondents expecting their family's financial situation to worsen in a year rising to 30.0%, the highest level since October 2023. Respondents believe that the probability of being unemployed in the next 12 months has risen by 1.6 percentage points to 15.7%, hitting a new high since March 2024. Overall, the extensive research report released by Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. shows that e-commerce stocks are facing greater downward valuation risks due to potential higher inflation pressures caused by consumer goods tariff policies than other internet technology companies. However, from a positive perspective, although tariff policies have exerted some pressure on the performance expectations and valuation of e-commerce and retail stocks, some fundamentally robust e-commerce platforms and platforms with high exposure to service consumption still have value in "buying on the dip." In the tariff storm, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. releases a full picture of the rating and outlook of core e-commerce platforms Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. emphasizes that Trump administration tariff policies may accelerate consumer shifts towards the service sector, benefiting experience consumption, travel, and transportation sectors, while leading platforms rely on strong cash flow and extensive business exposure to possess the "excess alpha" to outperform the market. Therefore, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. maintains a "buy" rating for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US), Shopify (SHOP.US), and Chewy (CHWY.US) for their performance and growth resilience, a "neutral" rating for Wayfair (W.US) reflecting the sensitivity and demand elasticity of the furniture category to tariffs, and a "sell" rating for eBay (EBAY.US) and Etsy (ETSY.US) due to their narrow business lines and higher tariff exposure. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s report updates the US e-commerce model through exclusive industry management data, channel surveys, historical comparisons (such as during the 2007-2009 financial crisis), among other analyses, and has lowered its growth forecast for the US e-commerce market size in 2025 to +6% year-on-year (previously +7.5%), reflecting the macro research team's revised GDP growth rate. The report provides a detailed analysis of various e-commerce platforms that hold significant market share in the US consumer market, outlining potential risks and opportunities in terms of tariff impacts, demand changes, and operational leverage, to provide investors with comprehensive and in-depth investment references in the e-commerce industry. Based on industry research, the Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. research team believes that digital consumers show resilience in Q1 operating trends but with a slowing growth rate, which is expected to be reflected in the upcoming earnings season (retrospective performance). Secondly, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. believes that increasing global tariffs pose a downward risk to Q2 (and subsequent quarters) operating profit forecasts, with the logic behind potentially lowering consumer confidence and increasing costs affecting consumer demand, as well as putting pressure on platform gross margins exposed to wholesale inventory price fluctuations. E-commerce leaders and platforms with high service exposure are expected to achieve above-average performance growth and stock investment returns beyond the S&P 500 index due to their "lesser impact on business exposure from tariff policies." Specifically, on important e-commerce-related individual stock levels, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s core viewpoints in the lengthy research report include: 1) The cost inflation triggered by Trump administration's fluctuating tariff policies will accelerate the shift in consumer structure to the service sector (tourism/experience economy), with physical e-commerce facing both demand slowdown and margin pressures. 2) Global e-commerce giants...The e-commerce platform Amazon.com, Inc. is expected to hedge against the risk of China/US tariff policies, thanks to its diverse supply chain capabilities and the largest global multi-system product supply network. Its e-commerce business, which benefits from the growing nature of service-oriented businesses, is expected to see an increasing exposure every year. Additionally, Amazon.com, Inc.'s cloud platform AWS is poised to continue achieving strong growth in operating profits in the midst of the global AI trend, thanks to its comprehensive AI development ecosystem. The company's stock has been maintained as a "buy" rating, with a target price lowered to $220, and it remains on Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s "preferred stock list." As of the close of trading on Tuesday, Amazon.com, Inc.'s stock price was $173.18.3) The leading e-commerce platform Shopify, on the other hand, benefits from the development of a merchant service ecosystem, with expectations to maintain growth rates three times higher than the industry average. However, revenue forecasts have been lowered to a 20% growth pace. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. has rated Shopify as a "buy", but has reduced the target stock price from $150 to $130. As of the closing of the US stock market on Tuesday, Shopify's stock price closed at $85.71. 4) Vertical platforms show significant differentiation: Chewy is expected to benefit in the long term from the increasing penetration of pet medical and insurance services, with remote veterinary services, insurance, and offline clinics being a comprehensive extension of its "pet lifecycle" strategy. The proportion of revenue from service-based nature is expected to increase significantly. Etsy/eBay, on the other hand, have been given a "sell" rating by Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. due to the negative impact of high tariff exposure driving "cross-border trade significant profit impact" and weakening optional consumption. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. has given Chewy a "buy" rating, with a target stock price of $45 unchanged, while Etsy and eBay have been given "sell" ratings with target prices of $35 and $53 respectively. 5) Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s "neutral" rating on Wayfair reflects the continued balancing act between furniture category tariff sensitivity and demand elasticity. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. expects higher tariffs to ultimately result in significant wholesale product cost increases for Wayfair, with the e-commerce company likely to pass on most of these cost increases to consumers, which may lead to a greater than expected decline in demand. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. has significantly lowered Wayfair's target stock price from $50 to $31, with a "neutral" rating.