Revealing ten indicators, can the rebound of the US stock market continue?

Just three weeks ago, the benchmark index of the US stock market - the S&P 500 index - even hit a historical high. However, individual and institutional investors in the current US stock market are once again examining their investment portfolios and finding a different scene. This Tuesday, the S&P 500 index officially entered the so-called "correction" zone - with a cumulative drop of up to 10% from the high point in less than a month. Although the index rebounded at the close yesterday, temporarily moving out of the correction zone, the entire US stock market is still shrouded in dark clouds, with a lot of suspense about future trends. The accurate forecasting list of the "ten indicators," which has always been precise, may help investors assess future market trends. Trump, who returned to the US presidency for his second term, recently issued a series of tariff policies that eroded the confidence of US businesses and consumers, and made global institutions and individual investors more cautious about investing in the US market. Since February, when the new Trump-led US government focused on imposing tariffs, more and more large-scale global funds have been fleeing the US stock market. The market had eagerly awaited the so-called "Trump put options," which were expected to significantly boost the weak performance of the US stock market this year. However, both Trump and US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin have not revealed any support or conciliatory stance towards the US stock market recently. Instead, they emphasized that as the US economy moves away from reliance on government spending, the US economy may inevitably go through a "detox" period. Trump himself did not directly deny the possibility of the US falling into an economic recession and stated that the US economy will have a "transition period." He emphasized that tariffs will inevitably bring "disruptions," and reiterated that tariffs are meant to make America great again. On Tuesday, Trump once again played down concerns about a US economic decline and predicted that the US would not fall into a recession. He stated at the White House, "I don't see a recession at all. I think the country is going to be stronger than ever before." Trump also added, "You can't always be focused on the stock market. The stock market goes up and down. But you know, we have to rebuild our country." Market Outlook Analysis: The accurate forecasting list of the "ten indicators" guides the future trend of the S&P 500 index How to predict the future trend of the US stock market and implement the strategy of "buy on dips" accurately? Below is a "ten-point checklist" compiled by investment institutions based on Wall Street analyst reports, which investors can use to track future market trends. If more "" (negative factors) or "" (uncertain factors) turn into "" (positive factors), the market will quickly start a "big rebound wave." Historical data shows that the "comprehensive guidance" provided by these indicators is very accurate in predicting the bull/bear trends in the future market. Economic growth and recession risks (negative) Unpredictable trade policies (negative) Government spending cuts (negative) Expectations of rate cuts (uncertain) Falling inflation (uncertain) Loose regulatory environment (uncertain) Tax reduction measures (uncertain) Corporate profits and investments (positive) Steady consumer spending (positive) Low unemployment rate (positive) On the contrary, if uncertain factors continue to dominate the market, the overall volatility of the US stock market, and even global stock markets, may worsen. If more negative factors persist, the market may face even greater pain, i.e., if more "" appears on this forecasting checklist, it may bring additional market selling pain. Investors should pay close attention to the latest market news and economic data, such as the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data report released at 8:30 am Eastern Time on Wednesday. In addition, investors should also note that this "ten-point checklist" itself contains some seemingly contradictory "paradoxical factors," such as government spending issues. In the short term, increasing government spending is positive for business and GDP growth; but in the long term, this may exacerbate the unsustainable debt burden of the US government and lead to a "sovereign debt default" - although the latter is difficult to measure in the short term, it may still be equally important. It must be acknowledged that the impact of Trump's tariff policy on short-term sentiment is very negative. The Trump administration is trying to implement long-term structural changes in the US economy, with the core of the transformation being the imposition of tariffs to promote the reshoring of manufacturing to the US. While the achievement of the Trump administration's transformation goals is still controversial, it has undoubtedly had a severe negative impact on the "animal spirits" that have supported the market since November last year, leading to capital fleeing from US stocks and flowing to the Chinese and European stock markets with valuation and fundamental advantages. President Trump said to the media before a business roundtable meeting on Tuesday, "Markets go up and down, but you know what? We have to rebuild our country." In addition, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt added at a press conference, "Whether it's today, yesterday, or tomorrow, the stock market numbers we see are just snapshots of specific moments in time. We are in a crucial stage of economic transformation, moving towards a golden age of American manufacturing under the policy of 'reshoring American manufacturing'." In-depth analysis: What does the "ten-point checklist" mean? The so-called "ten-point checklist" compiled by institutions based on Wall Street analyst reports is essentially an analytical tool to help investors objectively assess the current market environment and trend changes. The indicators in the checklist encompass macroeconomic fundamentals (such as economic growth, unemployment rate), policy environment (trade policy, government spending, tax and regulatory policies), monetary policy (interest rates, inflation), and corporate operating conditions (profitability, investment, and consumer spending). Through this checklist, investors can clearly judge the weight of the positive and negative factors that the market is facing, so as to more accurately grasp market trends and make appropriate investment decisions. At the same time, this checklist also reminds investors to closely monitor market trends and economic data, adjust their investment strategies in a timely manner, and respond to potential market volatility and risks.Accurately predicting possible trends in the future market. Some of these factors may have a significant short-term performance, while others have more long-term significance. Investors need to balance the relationship between short-term volatility and long-term structural changes in order to formulate more effective investment strategies.In summary, this forecast checklist containing "ten indicators" is like a "barometer" predicting whether the overall market is leaning towards a bullish or bearish trend, helping investors clarify whether the market is likely to continue to trend downwards or quickly recover its upward momentum. On March 11, analysts David J. Kostin and Ben Snider from Wall Street's Goldman Sachs released their latest research report, lowering the year-end target for the S&P 500 index from 6500 points to 6200 points. However, the Goldman Sachs analysis team stated that if the U.S. economy and earnings continue to grow, historical data shows that pullbacks in the S&P 500 index are usually good buying opportunities. Although the target has been adjusted downward, the Goldman Sachs analysis team expects the S&P 500 index to have over 10% upward potential for the remainder of the year. In the past three weeks, the S&P 500 index has fallen over 10% from its historical high, with over half of the decline coming from a 15% drop in stocks such as NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Tesla, known as the "big seven" in the U.S. stock market. Last year, the "big seven" contributed up to 25% of the total return of the S&P 500 index. Goldman Sachs believes that in order for the market to recover, at least one of the following three conditions must be met in order for a sustained rebound to occur, which aligns with the implied "scenario to be met" from the so-called "ten indicators" checklist: Firstly, the outlook for U.S. economic activity needs to significantly improve, which may stem from better economic growth data or a fundamental shift in tariff policies; Secondly, the pricing between stock valuations or cyclicals Vs. defensives has already fallen significantly below Goldman Sachs' base forecast; Thirdly, investor positions are already at low levels.