The 27% surge in the stock price of DOBOT (02432) driven by the "most human-like" Siasun Robot & Automation reveals what?

The humanoid robot Siasun Robot&Automation is undoubtedly the hottest trend at present, and DOBOT (02432) has attracted numerous attention in the Hong Kong stock market with a product that is "most like a human Siasun Robot&Automation". On March 12, DOBOT experienced a significant surge in trading as its stock price soared by 41.06% to 57.2 Hong Kong dollars, reaching a historical high. Although the price increase narrowed slightly afterwards, it still remained high, with the closing price rising by 27.50% to 51.7 Hong Kong dollars on that day. The trading volume reached 1.514 billion Hong Kong dollars, with a total market value of 20.897 billion Hong Kong dollars. According to the latest trading positions, as of the closing on March 12, the largest buyer of DOBOT was Chinese investment (Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect), with a net purchase of 744,200 shares. The other major net buyers were China Chuangying (Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect), Interactive Brokers, and Futu, with net purchases of 647,000 shares, 168,400 shares, and 93,400 shares respectively. Looking at the flow of funds from the south (Chinese investment, China Chuangying) and the concentration of retail investors (Futu), it is evident that the funds are currently showing strong interest in DOBOT. From a fundamental point of view, DOBOT's sharp increase in stock price today is mainly attributed to the company's release of the world's first "agile operation + direct knee walking" humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation. The Siasun Robot&Automation named Dobot Atom is designed for industrial-level fine operation of a full-size humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation, equipped with a self-developed neural-driven agile operating system NDS and humanoid walking system AWS, capable of completing complex industrial-level fine operation tasks such as car assembly, coffee making, drug sorting, and more. As one of the few companies in the world with the ability to independently develop the full technology chain, DOBOT has used self-developed industrial-grade solutions for the core components and software and hardware systems of this humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation. It is mainly targeted at scenarios such as assembly lines in car factories with thousands of workers, process operations for multiple equipment in coffee shops, and overnight drug retrieval in chain pharmacies, where the equipment locations are not fixed, the products have various specifications, the operations are similar, and there is a need for industrial and commercial continuous repetitive work in short-range narrow spaces and flexible turning operations. Currently, DOBOT has started cooperation with front-line car factories, electronic manufacturing plants, and coffee and milk tea shops in China, and is expected to achieve trial production and mass production by the middle of this year. In the current trend of humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation, this product of DOBOT, which is "most like a human Siasun Robot&Automation", has undoubtedly led to a surge in the company's stock price. "Right timing" and strong team support The ability of DOBOT to release the world's first "most like a human Siasun Robot&Automation" product is a combination of both right timing and strong team support. Established in 2015, DOBOT originated from the collision of ideas in the laboratory on the technical application of Siasun Robot&Automation. In the early days of entrepreneurship, the team focused on the research and development of collaborative Siasun Robot&Automation technology, aiming to create intelligent Siasun Robot&Automation that can efficiently collaborate with humans. Through continuous product iterations, the company has built a rich product line of collaborative Siasun Robot&Automation. According to the prospectus, by the end of 2024, the company had launched 27 models in 4 series of collaborative Siasun Robot&Automation, with load capacities between 0.25 kg and 20 kg, covering applications in manufacturing, retail, medical health, STEAM education, scientific research, and many other fields. In terms of product types, DOBOT's collaborative Siasun Robot&Automation is mainly divided into two categories according to the number of axes, which are the four-axis collaborative Siasun Robot&Automation and the six-axis collaborative Siasun Robot&Automation. In terms of sales structure, the company mainly sells the CR series and Nova series of six-axis collaborative Siasun Robot&Automation, with a total of 22 models of six-axis collaborative Siasun Robot&Automation. From 2021 to 2023, the company sold more than 47,000 collaborative Siasun Robot&Automation globally. According to Zhishi Consulting's report, based on the shipment volume in 2023, DOBOT ranks second in the global collaborative Siasun Robot&Automation industry and first among all collaborative Siasun Robot&Automation companies in China, with a global market share of 13.0%. From the launch of the first collaborative Siasun Robot&Automation product to having a rich product line, DOBOT's technological barriers have been continuously reinforced, clearly demonstrating the company's efforts in team building. According to the prospectus data, the company's research and development expenditures in 2021 to 2023 were 46.873 million yuan, 52.054 million yuan, and 70.527 million yuan, accounting for 26.9%, 21.6%, and 24.6% of total revenue in the respective years. The company's continued investment in research and development has undoubtedly helped to establish a certain level of core competitiveness in the field of humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation. However, it is worth noting that DOBOT's surge in stock price this time is not only due to the company's release of the world's first "most like a human Siasun Robot&Automation" product.In addition to showcasing the powerful product capabilities, it is also inseparable from the "hot trend" blessing of human-shaped Siasun Robot&Automation.In this wave of humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation, many technology star companies and countless start-up teams led by Tesla, 1X, and FigureAI have entered the new track of humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation, injecting continuous vitality and hope into the humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation industry. From the perspective of industry development pace, the humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation industry is expected to enter the year of mass production in 2025, and will witness a commercial explosion in 2026. With the humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation opening the "year of mass production" in 2025, the market size will undoubtedly enter a stage of rapid growth. According to the "Humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation Industry Research Report", China has become the world's leading humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation producer, with the Chinese humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation market size reaching approximately 2.76 billion yuan in 2024, and is expected to grow into a "billion-dollar market" by 2030. According to Goldman Sachs' forecast, the global humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation market size will reach $154 billion by 2035. Opportunities and "worries" coexist Undoubtedly, even though DOBOT has won favor with funds based on its product strength, it does not mean that the company is without development concerns. This can be seen from its "IPO of Blood". With the continuous increase in industry demand, DOBOT's revenue has also achieved year-on-year growth. It is understood that from 2021 to the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenues of 174 million, 241 million, 287 million, and 120 million yuan respectively. However, DOBOT also faces certain pressure of losses, with net losses during the same period being 41.756 million, 52.477 million, 103 million, and 59.883 million yuan respectively. Calculated, in the last three and a half years, DOBOT has accumulated losses exceeding 250 million yuan. In terms of the reasons for the losses, the significant increase in sales expenses and the continuous decline in the selling price of the core product are the main reasons for DOBOT Technology's losses. Specifically, from 2021 to 2023, the company's sales and distribution expenses were 63.63 million, 89.274 million, and 1.27 billion yuan, accounting for 36.5%, 37.0%, and 44.4% of the total revenue of the same year. This "heavy marketing" approach did not increase the profitability of the company's Siasun Robot & Automation. The company's core product, the six-axis collaborative Siasun Robot & Automation, experienced a phenomenon of "quantity increase and price decrease": the sales volume of the six-axis collaborative Siasun Robot & Automation increased from 394 units in 2021 to 2374 units in 2023, during this period, the average selling price of the six-axis collaborative Siasun Robot & Automation dropped from 66,000 yuan/unit to 56,600 yuan/unit, a decrease of 14.11%. Behind the continuous losses, DOBOT also faces a pressing problem of cash flow. From 2021 to the first half of 2024, the net cash flow generated by DOBOT's operating activities were 6.367 million, -11.7 million, -15.8 million, and -70.41 million yuan respectively. At the same time, as of the end of the first half of 2024, DOBOT Technology had cash and cash equivalents of only 73 million yuan, with short-term borrowings being the main source of liquidity, amounting to 154 million yuan, indicating high short-term debt pressure. In view of this, DOBOT had to choose to successfully go public through the "18C channel". However, perhaps due to being in the hottest track of humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation, since its listing on December 23rd of last year, in less than 3 months, the stock price (as of the closing price on March 12th was 51.7 Hong Kong dollars) has doubled compared to the issue price of 18.8 Hong Kong dollars, with a cumulative increase of about 175%. At this point, it can be seen that even though DOBOT is still plagued by factors such as high R&D expenditure, long cycles, and has not yet achieved profitability and faces cash flow strain, thanks to the development prospects of the humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation track, the market still holds great expectations for its future development.