Overnight US stocks | The three major indexes encountered "Black Monday" with the Nasdaq falling 4%. Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) market value "halved".
11/03/2025
GMT Eight
On Monday, the three major indexes saw a sharp decline, with the Nasdaq falling by 4%, marking the largest single-day drop since September 2022. This week, the market will welcome important economic data such as CPI and PPI.
[US Stocks] At the close, the Dow Jones fell by 890.01 points, a decrease of 2.08%, to 41911.71 points; the Nasdaq fell by 727.90 points, a decrease of 4.00%, to 17468.32 points; the S&P 500 index fell by 155.62 points, a decrease of 2.70%, to 5614.58 points. Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) fell by 15.43%, NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) fell by 5.07%, Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) fell by 4.85%, Meta Platforms (META.US) fell by 4.42%.
[European Stocks] The German DAX30 index fell by 390.95 points, a decrease of 1.70%, to 22610.09 points; the UK FTSE 100 index fell by 80.45 points, a decrease of 0.93%, to 8599.43 points; the French CAC40 index fell by 73.20 points, a decrease of 0.90%, to 8047.60 points; the Euro Stoxx 50 index fell by 84.56 points, a decrease of 1.55%, to 5383.85 points; the Spanish IBEX35 index fell by 178.25 points, a decrease of 1.34%, to 13076.05 points; the Italian FTSE MIB index fell by 385.81 points, a decrease of 1.00%, to 38207.00 points.
[Asia-Pacific Stock Market] The Nikkei 225 index rose by 0.38%, the South Korean KOSPI index rose by 0.27%, and the Indonesian composite index fell by 0.57%.
[Foreign Exchange] The US Dollar index, which measures the US dollar against six major currencies, rose by 0.14% on the day, closing at 103.983 in the forex market. At the end of the New York forex market, 1 Euro exchanged for 1.0824 US dollars, lower than the previous trading day's 1.0843 US dollars; 1 British Pound exchanged for 1.2870 US dollars, lower than the previous trading day's 1.2921 US dollars. 1 US dollar exchanged for 147.28 Japanese Yen, lower than the previous trading day's 148.03 Japanese Yen; 1 US dollar exchanged for 0.8817 Swiss Francs, higher than the previous trading day's 0.8800 Swiss Francs; 1 US dollar exchanged for 1.4458 Canadian dollars, higher than the previous trading day's 1.4365 Canadian dollars; 1 US dollar exchanged for 10.1373 Swedish Krona, higher than the previous trading day's 10.0784 Swedish Krona.
[Cryptocurrency] Bitcoin fell below $80,000 mark. Cryptocurrency prices continue to decline, with Bitcoin falling to its lowest level since November last year as escalating tensions in the trade war have raised concerns about the economy, offsetting US President Trump's support for cryptocurrencies last week. With fears that Trump's tariffs and government shutdowns will disrupt US economic growth, risk assets like cryptocurrencies are under pressure. As investors seek safety, the US stock market falls and US Treasury yields rise. B2C2's managing director, Nikolay Karpenko, stated, "While Trump's statement initially boosted optimism about strategic reserves for cryptocurrencies, as macroeconomic conditions worsened, aggressive selling emerged in the market, and this rebound quickly dissipated."
[Gold] Spot gold fell by 0.70%, to $2888.69 per ounce, trading sideways around $2910 per ounce until 00:00 Beijing time, and then sharply declined to $2880.32 per ounce at 02:05. COMEX gold futures fell by 0.74%, to $2892.50 per ounce, trading in a range of $2926.40 to $2885.20 per ounce during the day.
[Oil] The New York Mercantile Exchange's light crude oil futures for April delivery fell by $1.01, closing at $66.03 per barrel, a decrease of 1.51%; the London Brent crude oil futures for May delivery fell by $1.08, closing at $69.28 per barrel, a decrease of 1.53%.
[Macro News]
If the economy enters a recession, the Fed may start a series of rapid rate cuts in June. Analysts point out that the Fed is unlikely to lower interest rates at next week's policy meeting, but if concerns about an economic recession due to the trade war intensify and materialize, it may start a series of rapid rate cuts in June. At least in the futures market, more contracts are betting that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in June, July, and October, a trend that emerged after President Trump's comments on a "transition period" last weekend, amidst increased tariffs on multiple countries. With fears that his comments signal an upcoming economic recession, US stocks and US bond yields also fell on Monday. "Although things may seem calm on the surface, if the labor market or financial markets start to slide while the Fed is still evaluating the tariffs and the impact of the entire Trump agenda on inflation, the risk to the dual mandate rises and the Fed's ability to resist pressure from President Trump to lower rates is increasingly worrying," wrote Tim Duy, chief US economist at SGH Macro Advisors, in a note. "A delayed reaction by the Fed will incur the wrath of the Trump administration."
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. downgrades its 2025 US GDP growth forecast due to the impact of Trump's trade policies. On March 10th, local time, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. downgraded its growth forecast for the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2025 from an initial 2.4% to 1.7% due to Trump's trade policies being proven to be more aggressive than expected, which could lead to price increases and tighter financial conditions. This is the first time in two and a half years that Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. has lowered its economic forecast for the US.
The Trump administration plans to cancel the previous plan to sell oil from the strategic petroleum reserve. US Energy Secretary Wright announced on Monday that he is planning to work with Congress.Canceling the previous Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) sale plan is one way to address the low inventory issue. The US Congress has authorized the sale of approximately 100 million barrels of crude oil from the world's largest emergency crude oil reserve, with 7 million barrels to be sold in the 2026-2027 fiscal year and further sales before 2031. Wright stated in an interview that replenishing the reserve would require 5 to 7 years and $20 billion. Former US President Biden sold nearly 300 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves, including the largest sale ever after the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict. Wright noted that replenishing the reserve takes more time than selling it due to ongoing maintenance issues.Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft: Baesent and Trump's weekend remarks may signal a change in the market. Analyst Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft stated that although the weekend was relatively calm, we did hear from Baesent and Trump, who seemed to be telling us that they are ready to make some painful adjustments to the economy. Baesent said, "We may see a slight decline in the economy we have inherited. There will be a natural adjustment as we move from public spending to private spending. The markets and the economy have been enchanted. We have become addicted to government spending, and this will be a period of withdrawal." Meanwhile, Trump stated, "There will be a transition period, as what we are doing is very big. We are bringing wealth back to America. This is a big deal. What I want to do is build a strong country. You cannot really gauge the stock market." On the surface, these quoted remarks suggest that their level of pain is higher than what most people thought a few weeks ago.
[Stock News]
Oracle Corporation (ORCL.US) reported lower-than-expected earnings and plans to double data center capacity. Oracle Corporation announced its Q3 earnings, with revenue of $14.13 billion, below the market's expectations of $14.4 billion, and net profit of $2.936 billion, also below the market's expectations of $3.18 billion. The company stated that a sales backlog of up to $130 billion will drive a 15% revenue growth for the next fiscal year starting from June. Chairman Ellison announced plans to double data center capacity this calendar year as well as directly connect OpenAI's ChatGPT, XAI's Grok, and Meta's Llama with Oracle Corporation Database 23AI Edition featuring advanced vector capabilities.
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) market cap "halved" as Musk struggles to lead again, expected to lead DOGE for another year. Elon Musk stated on Monday that balancing the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) with other businesses is facing "huge difficulties." Tesla, Inc. experienced its largest single-day drop in five years, while its social media platform "X" has endured multiple cyber attacks. Musk stated in an interview that he expects to stay in the Trump administration for another year. Since Musk joined the Trump administration as "minister" of DOGE, Tesla, Inc. stock price has fallen every week. DOGE is undertaking a widespread and controversial action aimed at reducing federal government spending and workforce. Tesla, Inc.'s market cap has now halved from its peak, losing nearly $800 billion. Forbes data shows that Musk's net worth dropped by $22.8 billion on Monday, but he still leads over Bezos by over $100 billion. Musk also mentioned that the DOGE team currently has over 100 people and may increase to 200 people.
[Major Bank Ratings]
UBS Group AG and Redburn Atlantic reiterated their sell ratings on Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) due to weak delivery forecasts for the Model Y and a lack of near-term growth catalysts. UBS Group AG lowered Tesla, Inc.'s target price by $24 to $225, while Redburn was more pessimistic with a target price of $160.