Debon Securities: Silicon prices remain stable, photovoltaic glass prices have slightly increased.

Debon Securities released a research report stating that, according to the Silicon Industry Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, this week polysilicon started a new round of signing orders, with prices holding steady. In terms of downstream demand, currently only some companies have a strong demand for silicon materials, while other companies mainly consume their own inventory. The industry's expectations for the installation rush in March-April also drove downstream module battery prices up, and it is expected to continue to transmit to the silicon material link. Influenced by policy drivers, the price of photovoltaic glass has increased, and the reason for the price increase of this round of photovoltaic glass is due to policy drivers caused by the installation rush in the photovoltaic industry, mainly the "430 new policy" and the "530 new policy". Debon Securities' main points are as follows: Stable silicon material prices According to the Silicon Industry Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, this week polysilicon started a new round of signing orders, with prices holding steady. The transaction price range of N-type recycled materials is 39,000-46,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 41,700 yuan/ton; the transaction price range of N-type granular silicon is 38,000-41,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 39,000 yuan/ton; the transaction price range of P-type polysilicon is 32,000-36,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 34,000 yuan/ton. This week, polysilicon companies started signing new orders, with few transactions currently, and most companies are still negotiating. In terms of prices, some companies have slightly raised their quotes, but as of this week, there has been no adjustment in the transaction price range of polysilicon companies, and the average transaction price remains stable. The transaction price of the spot and futures trading remains at a relatively high level, and it is the main driving force for the current rise in polysilicon prices. During the two sessions, the government work report mentioned unclogging the restrictions and bottlenecks of the economic cycle in terms of market access and exit, factor allocation, and comprehensive rectification of "inward" competition. In terms of downstream demand, currently only some companies have a relatively strong demand for silicon materials, while other companies mainly consume their own inventory. The industry's expectations for the installation rush in March-April also drove downstream module battery prices up, and is expected to continue to transmit to the silicon material link. According to the Silicon Industry Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, the average price of silicon materials in the market this month is expected to show a slight upward trend, with China's polysilicon production in February 2025 decreasing by 4.55% compared to the previous month. According to production scheduling plans, it is estimated that the output of polysilicon in March 2025 will slightly increase to 97,000 tons, an increase of about 5% compared to the previous month. Affected by policy drivers, the price of photovoltaic glass has increased According to the Silicon Industry Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, starting from March, the photovoltaic glass market has seen a significant improvement in market conditions, with prices rising sharply. The average price of 2.0mm photovoltaic glass is 13.50 yuan/square meter, an increase of 1 yuan/square meter compared to February; the average price of 3.2mm photovoltaic glass is 22.50 yuan/square meter, an increase of 2 yuan/square meter compared to February. The reason for the price increase of this round of photovoltaic glass is due to policy drivers caused by the installation rush in the photovoltaic industry, mainly the "430 new policy" and the "530 new policy". Debon Securities believes that in the short term, the issuance of policy documents will drive a rapid increase in the scale of photovoltaic installations, stimulating the increase in demand for photovoltaic glass. At the same time, due to oversupply in the photovoltaic industry, fierce price competition between products and companies has led to losses in various links for a long time, especially in the photovoltaic glass industry, where major companies have reduced production significantly due to major losses, leading to a slight decrease in industry supply. From the supply side, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has dropped from a high of 120,000 tons in 2024 to less than 90,000 tons currently, and the inventory cycle of photovoltaic glass in the industry has dropped from about 40 days to less than 30 days currently. From the demand side, the daily melting volume demand for glass exceeds 90,000 tons for a single month production of 50GW, higher than the current production capacity. In terms of production costs, since the second half of 2024, photovoltaic glass companies have faced significant financial pressure, and under the pressure of losses, each company has a strong willingness to support prices. Therefore, facing a sudden increase in demand in the face of reduced supply and cost pressures, the price of photovoltaic glass has stopped falling and rebounded, showing an upward trend. Risk warning Risk of fluctuations in raw material prices, risk of fluctuations in industry chain prices, and risk of intensified industry competition.