China Securities Co., Ltd.: Lead screw benefits from autonomous controllability and humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation outbreak, new technologies drive related equipment and consumables benefits.

China Securities Co., Ltd. released a research report stating that ball screws, as superior performance transmission components, are benefiting from the background of industrial mother machine autonomy and controllability, accelerating the domestic substitution of ball screws. On the other hand, under the background of rapid iteration of AI, the market for humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation is exploding, with high requirements for ball screws in its trunk linear actuator and dexterous hand actuator. For example, the ball screw accounts for about 19% of the value of humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation. In the long term, the market space brought by humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation will be exponentially magnified compared to the industrial mother machine ball screw market. In order to meet the rapidly growing demand for ball screws, in terms of processing technology, efficiency and cost reduction are inevitable trends, with new processes such as cyclone milling and turning instead of grinding constantly emerging, benefiting related equipment and consumables. The main points of China Securities Co., Ltd. are as follows: Ball screws are widely used as linear transmission components. Ball screws are transmission components that convert rotary motion into linear motion. According to friction characteristics, they can be divided into sliding ball screws, rolling ball screws, and static pressure ball screws. They are widely used in machine tools, aerospace, Siasun Robot&Automation, automotive, and other fields. Currently, machine tools are the largest downstream market for ball screws, and in the long term, humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation is expected to become its largest downstream market. Benefiting from the background of industrial mother machine autonomy and controllability, the domestic substitution of ball screws as core components accelerates. CNC machine tools currently represent the largest market for ball screws, accounting for about 45%. The selection of ball screws in this industry, which has high requirements for accuracy, is also extremely strict. Currently, the domestication rate of high-end ball screws is only 5%, leaving ample room for domestic substitution. As the autonomy and controllability of industrial mother machines become more urgent, domestic ball screw companies are expected to benefit fully. AI accelerates the market explosion of humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation, with ball screws as core components accounting for approximately 19% of the value. The market space is expected to be exponentially expanded. AI model iteration speeds up the commercial landing of humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation. From Tesla's announcement in 2021 to introduce the humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation "Optimus Prime", to the upcoming launch of the third-generation humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation, and the introduction of the new model equipped with Helix by figure, and 1X's launch of NEOGAMMA optimized by artificial intelligence algorithms. Domestic companies such as Yushu, Zhiyuan, and UBTECH ROBOTICS are optimizing gait and movement. The model iteration and training algorithm optimization are accelerating the commercial landing of humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation. Currently, many products of humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation are already undergoing practical training with downstream industrial customers. It is expected that the future market size of humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation will far exceed that of the automotive and 3C industries. Taking Tesla's humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation as an example, the trunk and dexterous hand will greatly drive the surge in demand for ball screws. (1) According to the current version of Tesla's humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation, there are a total of 14 linear actuators in the trunk, using "motor + planetary roller screw + bearing + sensor" for implementation. The reverse planetary roller screw, with its characteristics of high precision, high load-bearing, and high efficiency, becomes a transmission component. (2) It is expected that Tesla's third-generation dexterous hand will have more linear actuators and tendon module. Different from the previous two generations of designs, the Optimus Gen3 dexterous hand is more flexible, with an expected 22 degrees of freedom, and the drive system includes a linear actuator module + tendon module. By utilizing underdrive, a total of 17 linear actuator modules will drive the expansion of demand for micro ball screws. The company expects the market space for humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation ball screws to exceed 50 billion yuan by 2030, several times the original scale. Assuming that the global production volume of humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation reaches 10,000 units in 2025, 1 million units in 2027, 3 million units in 2030, and 8 million units in 2035. The demand for planetary roller ball screws in the humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation field is expected to reach 54.576 billion yuan by 2030, more than 10 times the demand for planetary roller screws in traditional industries. In the long term, the market space will be exponentially magnified. In order to meet the rapidly growing demand for ball screws, efficiency and cost reduction will be inevitable trends in processing technology, with new processes such as turning instead of grinding and cyclone milling constantly emerging, benefiting related equipment and consumables. Risk Warning: (1) Risk of decline in manufacturing industry prosperity; (2) Risk of industrialization and commercialization of humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation falling below expectations; (3) Risk of intensifying market competition; (4) Risk of supply chain fluctuations.