Zhongjin: Polar gold antimony supply may shrink significantly by 2025, and the antimony price center is expected to further rise.

On the evening of March 5, Polar Gold released its 2024 annual report, stating that the antimony production in 2024 was 12,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 53%. Among them, the antimony production in 2H24 was 4,056 tons, with a month-on-month/year-on-year decrease of -70%/-53%. According to estimates, the proportion of global antimony ore production from Polar Gold in 2024 is approximately 10%. With the rigid background of global antimony ore supply, a significant contraction in supply by Polar Gold may have a major impact on the global antimony industry's supply and demand. It is conservatively assumed that the monthly average export volume of antimony products this year will only maintain at the level of December last year. Due to the high cost, the import of ore has significantly contracted. It is estimated that the domestic antimony supply-demand gap in 2025 may reach 25,000 tons, accounting for 24% of total domestic demand. With the continuous improvement in demand, the domestic antimony price is expected to rise further. Main points of China Gold are as follows: It is expected that Polar Gold's antimony supply in 2025 may further contract, further exacerbating the tight supply situation. 1. The company has completed the fourth stage of antimony-containing Vostockny mine in the Olimplada project in 2024, and is currently conducting stripping activities for the fifth stage, which needs to continue until 2026-2027. 2. By the end of 2024, the inventory value of antimony was approximately $1 million, a significant decrease from $22 million at the end of 2023. The company has greatly digested the antimony inventory in 2024. 3. It is estimated that Polar Gold's antimony ore production in 2024 accounts for approximately 10% of the global total. With the rigid background of global antimony ore supply, a significant contraction in supply may have a major impact on the global antimony industry's supply and demand. Domestic and foreign demand resonance coupled with the contraction of imported ores, domestic antimony prices reaching historic highs. 1. Flame retardants used in appliances and other fields are in the procurement peak season. 2. Market-oriented reforms of photovoltaic electricity price may promote the installation rush of the domestic photovoltaic industry before June 1 this year. The daily smelting amount of photovoltaic glass has stabilized and rebounded. 3. According to customs data, in December 2024, China exported 1,571 tons of antimony oxide, a month-on-month increase of 102%. 4. The high price difference between domestic and foreign markets raises the cost of imported ores, leading to a significant contraction in imports. According to customs data, in December 2024, China imported 2,141 physical tons of antimony ores from overseas, a month-on-month decrease of 63%. As of March 7, domestic antimony ingots were priced at 170,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 8% from the previous high. Further contraction of imported ores and continued improvement in demand are expected to further push up domestic antimony prices. According to Bai Chuan Ying Fu, as of March 5, the MB average price of antimony ingots was $52,000/ton, with a price difference of over 250,000 yuan/ton between domestic and foreign markets. China Gold pointed out that, with the conservative assumption that the monthly average export volume of antimony products this year will only maintain at the level of last December, and due to the high cost, the contraction of imported ores, it is estimated that the domestic antimony supply-demand gap in 2025 may reach 25,000 tons, accounting for 24% of total domestic demand. With the continuous improvement in demand, the domestic antimony price is expected to rise further. In the long run, the tight supply-demand situation of antimony is expected to continue, and the global antimony price center is expected to continue to rise. Benefiting from the continued growth of new photovoltaic installations and the penetration rate of double-glass modules, the demand for antimony used in photovoltaic glass is expected to continue to grow. The implementation of the old-for-new policy is expected to increase the demand for antimony used in the flame retardant field. According to China Gold's estimate, the antimony supply-demand gaps in 2025-2027 are expected to be -28,000 tons, -25,000 tons, -29,000 tons, accounting for -18%, -15%, and -18% of demand, respectively. The supply-demand situation may continue to be tight, and the antimony price center is expected to continue to rise. Targeted recommendation: It is recommended to pay attention to Hunan Gold Corporation (002155.SZ), which is driven by both gold and antimony; other companies in the industry chain include Guangxi Huaxi Nonferrous Metal (600301.SH) and Tibet Huayu Mining (601020.SH). Risk factors: Overseas supply exceeds expectations, export improvements fall short of expectations, and downstream demand for antimony is replaced beyond expectations.