Huachuang Securities: Antimony price is expected to run at high levels in the medium to long term, recommended to pay attention to Guangxi Huaxi Nonferrous Metal (600301.SH) and others.

Hua Chuang Securities released a research report stating that antimony is known as the "industrial MSG" and is commonly used as an additive in industrial manufacturing, widely used in flame retardant materials (47%), glass ceramics (27%), lead-acid batteries (11%), and polyester industry (11%) and other fields. The industry is strongly influenced by resources and cost, with a strong supply rigidity. China's resource dominance is shifting towards smelting dominance, while demand-wise, the continued development of the photovoltaic industry is the main DRIVER of antimony demand growth. The strategic importance of antimony resources is becoming increasingly significant, and in the medium to long term, the central price of antimony is expected to remain high. It is recommended to pay attention to listed companies Guangxi Huaxi Nonferrous Metal (600301.SH), Hunan Gold Corporation (002155.SZ), and Tibet Huayu Mining (601020.SH). Key points from Hua Chuang Securities are as follows: Supply side: Antimony has a significant strategic position, long-term supply rigidity 1) Antimony resources are extremely scarce and have been listed as strategic minerals by multiple countries: Global antimony production has been continuously declining in recent years, from 167,000 tons in 2010 to 104,000 tons by 2024. The global static reserves-to-production ratio is low (22:1), and the antimony resource end is extremely scarce, being listed as strategic minerals by China, the United States, and other countries, with limited potential for future increases. Global antimony resources are mainly distributed in China (29.7%), Russia (15.5%), Bolivia (13.8%), Kyrgyzstan (11.5%), and other countries. 2) China's current antimony production is 60,000 tons, with limited future increases: Domestic antimony ore resources are depleting, new ore exploration is insufficient, mining technology and labor costs are rising, and environmental policies are becoming increasingly stringent, resulting in China's share of global antimony production decreasing from 90% in 2010 to 58% by 2024. It is predicted that domestic antimony ore supply will be 60,700/61,400/62,300 tons in 2025-2027; the domestic antimony market is shifting from resource dominance to smelting dominance, with export controls implemented in September 2024, causing a temporary halt in the outflow of domestic antimony products, with a slight recovery in antimony oxide exports in November and December. 3) Current overseas antimony production is around 44,000 tons, with an estimated average annual increase of 2,700 tons over the next three years: Russia and Tajikistan contribute the main production overseas, with the Solonechenskoye antimony mine and the Kanysh-Kain antimony mine in Tajikistan expected to produce a total of 22,000 tons of antimony metal. Countries like Bolivia and Australia have smaller production contributions, with some individual antimony mines experiencing reduced production due to resource depletion and high mining costs, while other smaller mines may still increase their production. It is estimated that overseas antimony metal supply will be 46,000/48,000/52,000 tons in 2025-2027. 4) Constrained by the metallic properties, recycled antimony production is growing slowly. Global recycled antimony production reached 32,000 tons in 2023, mainly from lead-acid batteries. Considering that lead-antimony alloys used in lead-acid batteries have gradually decreased in antimony content from the traditional 5%-7% to around 2% or lower, the total amount of recycled antimony is expected to be limited in the future. Demand side: The continuous development of the photovoltaic industry is the main DRIVER of antimony demand growth 1) Flame retardants are the most important consumption area for antimony (47%): Halogen-bromine flame retardants are irreplaceable in plastics, rubber, textiles, and synthetic fibers. Future antimony consumption may stabilize, with an estimated consumption of 79,400 tons in 2025. 2) Clearing agents for photovoltaic glass bring additional growth in antimony demand (27%): Sodium antimonate is the optimal clearing agent for photovoltaic glass, with an additional 12,100 tons expected in 2024. As the photovoltaic industry develops and the penetration rate of dual-glass modules increases, photovoltaic glass is expected to be the main contributing sector to antimony demand growth in 2025, with estimated consumption reaching 45,300 tons. 3) Overall steady demand for lead-acid batteries, polyester catalysts, and other sectors (26%). 4) Expected supply-demand gap to persist in the long term: It is predicted that global antimony metal supply will be 146,700/149,400/154,200 tons in 2025-2027, with a supply growth rate of 1.9%/1.9%/3.2%. Global antimony demand is expected to be 168,300/176,300/185,800 tons in 2025-2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.0% from 2022-2027. The supply-demand gap is estimated to be 21,700/26,900/31,500 tons. Price side: Continuous supply-demand imbalance is expected to lead to a sustained upward trend in prices Since 2020, there has been a surge in demand in the photovoltaic new energy sector, and antimony inventories have been continuously depleted. Currently, the strategic importance of antimony resources is becoming increasingly significant, and under the supply-demand imbalance, antimony prices continue to rise. In the short term, the tight supply situation in the international market is unlikely to be alleviated in the short term, and after exports resume, domestic and foreign antimony prices may move in both directions, with domestic antimony prices expected to continue to rise. Risk warning: Risk of significant fluctuations in antimony prices; Risk of macroeconomic cycle fluctuations; Risk of changes in industry policies.