Tracking the concept of Hong Kong stocks | The global central bank's buying spree is driving strong demand for gold, as risk aversion heats up, driving the upturn in the gold boom cycle (including concept stocks)

On March 7th, the central bank disclosed that China's gold reserves at the end of February were reported at 73.61 million ounces, compared to 73.45 million ounces at the end of January, an increase of 0.16 million ounces from the previous month, marking the fourth consecutive month of increasing gold reserves. Zhao Qingming, deputy director of the Exchange Research Institute, stated that the central bank's increase in gold reserves not only helps to optimize the international reserve structure but also promotes the internationalization of the renminbi. Currently, both the absolute and relative amounts of China's gold reserves are relatively low, and the central bank is expected to continue increasing its gold reserves. Chen Bozhong, a partner at Zhongan Dingcheng Investment, also noted that China's gold reserves account for around 5% of its foreign exchange reserves, whereas countries like the US, Germany, and France have a gold reserve ratio of around 70%. This indicates that the central bank still has ample room to increase its gold holdings. Huatai stated that in the long term, global investment demand for gold, central bank net purchases of gold, and technological demand are expected to remain strong, while supply is likely to remain relatively stable. An improvement in the supply-demand situation may lead to fluctuations in gold prices. The World Gold Council believes that emerging market central banks are still the main buyers of gold. Their data shows that in January, the largest buyer of gold was the Central Bank of Uzbekistan, followed by the People's Bank of China and the National Bank of Kazakhstan. In terms of gold price performance, international gold prices showed an overall upward trend in February and reached a new historical high at the end of the month. On February 24th, COMEX gold futures briefly reached $2974 per ounce. Since March, international gold prices have fluctuated up again after a brief decline, with some investors choosing to take profits after three consecutive trading days of rising gold prices. However, the weakening US dollar has provided some support to gold prices. The April gold futures on the NYMEX closed at $2926.6 per ounce, an increase of 0.02%. In addition to the global central bank buying spree for gold, the escalation of trade tensions due to Trump's frequent imposition of tariffs has also fueled a rise in safe-haven sentiment and boosted the upswing in the gold prosperity cycle. Guosen released a research report stating that since Trump took office, he has successively announced tariffs of 25% on imported products from Mexico and Canada, an additional 10% tariff on China after the initial 10% tariff on February 4th, and a 25% tariff on the EU. The escalating trade war between the US and the rest of the world continues to trigger safe-haven sentiment. Huatai also stated that by 2025, the main driving force behind the short-term rise in gold prices may come from the inflation rekindled by changes in US tariff policies and uncertainties in the global economy. The "2024 Global Gold Demand Trends Report" shows that the shift from local conflicts to global economic games further strengthens the significant net purchase of gold by global central banks. Furthermore, retail demand for gold in the market has remained strong. Statistics show that jewelry spending in the gold sector increased by 9% last year, indicating robust consumer demand for gold jewelry. Soochow stated that in 2024, gold jewelry accounted for 44% of global gold consumer demand, with gold bars and coins accounting for 26%. The demand in mainland China and India markets far exceeds that of other markets, accounting for over 50% of total demand. The upgrading of products in the jewelry market has also driven consumption of gold and other jewelry. Morgan Stanley released a research report stating that since mid-2023, it has been cautious in its outlook for the mainland jewelry market, but recent consumer surveys have found that the rapid growth of gold jewelry is due to the upgrading of products, improved demand for gemstones, and the trend towards high-end products. Related stock concepts: Zijin Mining Group (02899): According to preliminary calculations by the company, it is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 32 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of approximately 10.881 billion yuan or 51.5% compared to 21.119 billion yuan in the same period last year. Zijin Mining Group produced 73 tons of gold last year, an increase of 5 tons from 68 tons in 2023, and is expected to further increase to 85 tons by 2025. Shandong Gold Mining (01787): According to preliminary calculations, it is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the owner of the parent company of 2.7 billion to 3.2 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 372 million to 872 million yuan compared to the same period last year, or an increase of 15.98% to 37.46%. LINGBAO GOLD (03330): The company expects full-year revenue in 2024 to be around 11.587 billion to 11.903 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 10% to 13% year-on-year; net profit is expected to be around 617 million to 706 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 110% to 140%.