Guotai Junan: Post-holiday copper and aluminum processing restart rate continues to recover, turning point in inventory destocking has appeared.

Guotai Junan Securities' chief analyst for non-ferrous metals, Yu Jiayi, released a research report stating that recent economic data such as US employment numbers and manufacturing PMI have weakened, leading to an increase in market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. At the same time, beginning on March 4th, the US imposed tariffs on goods from multiple countries, leading to retaliatory measures, causing a decline in US stocks and the US dollar index, and an increase in metal prices. With the release of US CPI data next week and the planned imposition of a 25% tariff on all imported aluminum and steel on March 12th, amidst frequent macroeconomic disruptions, gold prices may experience volatility. Domestically, the "Two Sessions" are currently taking place, sending signals of stable growth and improving macroeconomic expectations. Additionally, post-holiday processing rates for copper and aluminum have continued to recover, approaching the peak season, with signs of de-stocking in the market to support prices. Gold: Short-term inflation is disproven, prices may continue to be under pressure. In terms of price, this week SHFE gold rose by 0.65% to 679.48 yuan/gram, COMEX gold rose by 2.43% to $2,917.70 per ounce, and London gold rose by 1.75% to $2,907.14 per ounce. Stockpiles remained stable, with some increases. Central bank gold purchases also saw an increase. Silver: With financial and commodity influences, silver prices may experience larger fluctuations. Price increases are seen in both SHFE and COMEX silver, with decreases in stockpiles. Manufacturing industry prospects are improving in China, which will drive industrial demand for silver. Electrolytic aluminum: Support from reduced stockpiles could lead to an increase in aluminum prices, while changes in supply are being monitored. Prices have shown changes on both LME and SHFE, and production capacity continues to increase. Demand and stockpiles are also being closely watched. Copper: Disruptions in supply have increased, and domestic demand is still strong. Prices for copper have changed and supply is tight, with some reduction in production from smelters, providing support for prices. Domestic demand remains steady, with global visible inventory declining. New energy metals weekly analysis: Lithium prices are stable, with strong demand for lithium salt. There are fluctuations in lithium prices, with stable demand and increased production. Cobalt market sentiment is positive, with limited availability. Demand for electric batteries remains steady, with firm prices for both lithium and cobalt.Intense, some smelters have temporarily suspended long-term quotations to wait and see the future market. As for cobalt salts, the market's bullish sentiment has sharply intensified, leading to raw material prices being unable to be locked in; as a result, domestic smelting companies have generally adopted a "wait and see" strategy, causing a decrease in market liquidity and forming a price vacuum. While downstream purchasing inquiries have increased in frequency, actual transactions are clearly constrained by the current irrational prices, and the cobalt intermediate market has entered a stage of "price but no market" game. Guotai Junan Securities predicts that in the short term, cobalt prices still have room to rise. According to SMM data, last week's electrolytic cobalt prices were between 20,000-22,000 yuan per ton, with an average price increase of 14.13% from the previous week.Je ne comprends pas.