Debang Securities: Both domestic monetary and fiscal policies are powering up, fully optimistic about investment opportunities in the non-ferrous metal sector.

date
09/03/2025
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GMT Eight
Dapeng Securities released a research report stating that the interest rate cut cycle of the Federal Reserve has begun, with both domestic monetary and fiscal policies exerting force. They are optimistic about investment opportunities in the non-ferrous metal sector, precious metals are expected to rise, and there may be greater resilience in demand-related varieties. In terms of precious metals, the interest rate cut landing highlights the value of gold allocation, silver futures have greater elasticity. Recommendations include Shandong Gold Mining (600547.SH), Zhongjin Gold Corp.,Ltd (600489.SH), Shandong Yulong Gold (601028.SH), Shengda Resources (000603.SZ), Inner Mongolia Xingye Silver&Tin Mining (000426.SZ), Shanjin International Gold (000975.SZ). Regarding industrial metals, policy promotion is expected to improve the economy, and industrial metal prices related to the domestic economy are expected to rise. Recommendations include: aluminum > copper > minor metals > rare earths. Recommendations include various companies in the aluminum, copper, and minor metals industries. In terms of new materials, they are optimistic about seven areas including artificial intelligence materials, Siasun Robot & Automation upstream magnetic materials, foldable screen components for consumer electronics, titanium alloy materials, smart car components, and satellite/superconductive materials. Recommendations include various companies in the new materials industry. Trump confirms the imposition of tariffs on Canada and Mexico, with adjustments to the effective time and exemption range. On March 3, local time, U.S President Trump announced that tariffs on Canada and Mexico would officially take effect on March 4. Trump signed an executive order on March 6, adjusting the tariff measures imposed on Mexico and Canada and exempting certain imported goods according to the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement conditions. Upcoming important data releases: March 12 (20:30) - U.S. non-seasonally adjusted CPI YoY, March 13 (20:30) - U.S. PPI YoY, March 14 (17:00) - China M2 money supply YoY. Precious metals: Tariffs boost demand for safe-haven assets, causing gold prices to fluctuate. This week, domestic spot gold prices rose by 1.3%. On March 4, the U.S. February ISM Manufacturing PMI cooled down, falling below expectations and the previous value. On March 5, the February "small non-farm" ADP employment growth number fell significantly, while the ISM Services PMI for February rebounded.The impact of tariffs has pushed prices up in certain categories, but overall concerns about market recession have eased. In terms of tariffs, Canada and Mexico have shown a firm stance in the face of threats from the United States, using energy exports and seeking new trading partners as countermeasures. This not only reflects the complexity of North American trade relations, but also highlights the two countries' determination on issues of economic sovereignty. In the future, as trade tensions continue to develop, the economic landscape of the North American region may face significant adjustments, and the joint counterattack by Canada and Mexico will be a key factor affecting the situation. Geopolitically, the United States has temporarily suspended military aid to Ukraine, and reports of possible lifting of sanctions on Russia have further boosted the safe haven properties of gold.Industrial Metals: Domestic metal prices are rising, with copper prices also increasing. This week, the SHFE copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel spot settlement prices rose by +1.9%, +0.9%, +1.3%, +2.3%, +2.7%, and +2.3% respectively. Trump's announcement of tariffs on Mexico sparked market concerns, causing a sharp decline in US and European stock markets, with the US dollar index falling below 106. On the news front, the US Department of Commerce indicated it may soon announce tariff exemptions for Mexico, while the US Treasury Department expressed support for interest rate cuts. China and Mexico have announced retaliatory tariffs against the US. The US proposed Putin as a mediator for negotiations between the US and Iran, leading to a continued decline in crude oil prices. Overall, the market seems to be waiting for the actual implementation of tariffs, with concerns about stagflation escalating rapidly and putting pressure on risk assets. South American copper suppliers have informed domestic companies that they will stop shipping to China in the coming months. Combined with substantial production cuts at some domestic smelters, domestic supply may tighten slightly, providing support for copper prices. Rare Earths, Tungsten, and other minor metals: Prices of praseodymium-neodymium oxide and tungsten concentrates have fallen this week. For rare earths, prices for praseodymium-neodymium metals and oxides have decreased, while for tungsten, black tungsten concentrate (65%) and white tungsten concentrate (65%) prices have also fallen. With expectations of a recovery in manufacturing driving demand for tungsten used in cutting tools and wear-resistant tools, the medium to long-term demand for tungsten is expected to steadily increase. Energy Metals: Lithium carbonate prices have fallen, with a focus on the subsequent growth in demand for energy metals. (1) Lithium: Prices for lithium concentrate remained stable, while prices for lithium metal, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide have fallen. (2) Cobalt: Prices for cobalt metal, cobalt chloride, cobalt sulfate, and cobalt oxide have increased. (3) Nickel: Nickel ore (CIF) prices remained stable, while prices for nickel metal, nickel beans, nickel plates, and nickel sulfate have risen, with nickel prices showing differentiation. In the short term, lithium carbonate prices remain stable, while attention should be paid to the subsequent growth in demand for energy metals. It is recommended to keep an eye on companies such as Sinomine Resource Group, Ganfeng Lithium Group, Tianqi Lithium Corporation, GEM Co., Ltd., and Yongxing Special Materials Technology.

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