CMHI Macro: Return to normalcy in credit

In February, it is expected that the new loans denominated in renminbi will increase by 900 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of approximately 7.2%. 1) It is estimated that new residential loans will decrease by approximately 30 billion yuan. In February, the real estate market cooled down due to the Chinese New Year holiday, maintaining a low-level operation; the second-hand housing market showed obvious differentiation between volume and price, with continuous exchange of price for volume. In terms of commodity housing, according to data from Kerui, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a total sales turnover of 188.12 billion yuan, an increase of 1.2% year-on-year and a decrease of 17.3% month-on-month. In terms of regional distribution, first-tier cities remain hot, with Shenzhen seeing a 150% year-on-year increase in first-hand residential signings; second-tier cities are experiencing a rebound in the property market, with a month-on-month decline of 40%, better than first-tier cities. In terms of existing housing, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in major cities across the country has basically achieved significant growth, with Hangzhou seeing a 220% year-on-year increase in second-hand residential signings, and Shanghai, Hangzhou, Chengdu, and Beijing seeing residential signings close to doubling year-on-year, with the transaction volume of second-hand residential properties in 14 cities increasing by 80% year-on-year. Taking into account the lending situation in the same period of the past five years (a decrease of 103.8 billion yuan in the same period of the previous year, with an average of 77 billion yuan in the same period of the past five years), it is estimated that the new medium and long-term loans for residents in the current month will decrease by about 130 billion yuan. In terms of short-term loans for residents, the off-peak effect of the Spring Festival continued to affect the financing willingness of short-term loans in February. High-frequency data shows that the average daily sales volume of passenger cars increased by 23.5% year-on-year in the month, the passenger volume of subway in first-tier cities increased by 15.1% year-on-year, the box office of movies increased by 48.2% year-on-year, domestic flight volume decreased by 0.75% year-on-year, reflecting that commodity consumption and service consumption are hot at the same time, and the increase in the average daily sales volume of passenger cars is more meaningful for short-term loans for residents. In summary, it is expected that new short-term loans for residents will be about 100 billion yuan (a decrease of 486.8 billion yuan in the same period of the previous year, with an average decrease of 275 billion yuan in the same period of the past five years). Considering both, it is estimated that the new renminbi loans for residents in February will be around -30 billion yuan (a decrease of 590 billion yuan in the same period of the previous year, with an average decrease of about 198 billion yuan in the same period of the past five years). 2) It is estimated that new corporate loans will increase by about 600 billion yuan. In February, the manufacturing PMI rebounded above the boom-bust line. Structurally, the demand index (new order index) and the supply index (production index) rebounded significantly, returning to above the boom-bust line; the construction PMI also rebounded greatly, returning to above the boom-bust line, indicating that economic activities are beginning to strengthen. However, from a financing perspective, the BCI Corporate Financing Environment Index in the month fell month-on-month (from 47.1 to 46.7), presumably due to corporate overdraft of credit in January. Therefore, it is expected that actual corporate credit will weaken month-on-month, and excluding bill financing, new corporate credit is estimated to be around 900 billion yuan (an increase of 1.82 trillion yuan in the same period of the previous year, with an average increase of about 1.37 trillion yuan in the same period of the past five years). With regard to the bill market, the supply of primary market bills in the month slightly exceeded expectations, but there was pressure on bank credit distribution. The central point of the bill interest rate decreased significantly compared to January, with the interest rate on 6-month bills fluctuating between 1.04% and 1.24%, with a central point of about 1.15%, a decrease of about 25 basis points from the central point of the interest rate in January of about 1.40%. In the last week, bill interest rates (especially 3-month bills) fell significantly, reflecting the weakness of credit distribution. Combining historical data, it is estimated that the scale of bill financing in the month will be around -300 billion yuan (a decrease of 280 billion yuan in the same period of the previous year, with an average decrease of over 38 billion yuan in the same period of the past five years). Considering non-bank financial loans together, it is estimated that the new renminbi loans in the current month will be around 900 billion yuan (an increase of about 1.45 trillion yuan in the same period of the previous year, with an average increase of 1.35 trillion yuan in the past three years), with a growth rate falling to 7.2%. In February, it is expected that social financing will increase by around 2.2 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 8.2%. In February, under the pattern of strong bond issuance and weak bank lending, it is expected that social financing will increase by about 2.2 trillion yuan (an increase of about 1.5 trillion yuan in the same period of the previous year, with an average increase of 1.7 trillion yuan in the same period of the past five years), with a growth rate of 8.2%. Breaking it down: 1) Renminbi loans under the social financing scope are expected to increase by about 700 billion yuan (an increase of about 980 billion yuan in the same period of the previous year, with an average increase of 1.2 trillion yuan in the same period of the past five years). 2) According to WIND data, net financing of government bonds is about 1.69 trillion yuan (an increase of about 680 billion yuan in the same period of the previous year). Among them, net financing of national bonds is about 418.47 billion yuan (an increase of about 264.67 billion yuan in the same period of the previous year), and net financing of local bonds is about 1.27 trillion yuan (an increase of about 413.2 billion yuan in the same period of the previous year). 3) Direct corporate financing is about 194 billion yuan. Structurally, net financing of corporate bonds is about 187.5 billion yuan (an increase of about 16.78 billion yuan in the same period of the previous year). Among them, net financing of industrial bonds is about 196.62 billion yuan (an increase of about 126.6 billion yuan in the same period of the previous year), while net financing of urban investment bonds is about 56 billion yuan (an increase of about 36.4 billion yuan in the same period of the previous year). Corporate IPOs/additional issuances and other fundraising activities are estimated to raise about 6.477 billion yuan (an increase of about 11.2 billion yuan in the same period of the previous year). 4) Non-standard financing is estimated to decrease by about 370 billion yuan (a decrease of about 330 billion yuan in the same period of the previous year), with undiscounted accepted bills expected to decrease by about 420 billion yuan (a decrease of about 370 billion yuan in the same period of the previous year). It is expected that M2 balance will increase by 1.63 trillion yuan month-on-month, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 6.9%. Based on the derivation of M2, it is expected that M2 balance will increase by 1.63 trillion yuan month-on-month, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.9%. Among them, about 700 billion yuan is derived from credit for the real economy (including: new credit under the scope of social financing + loan write-offs + asset-backed securities of deposit-type financial institutions), about 900 billion yuan is derived from net fiscal outlays, and other factors (banks' proprietary purchases of corporate bonds, central bank foreign exchange deposits, etc.) are expected to contribute around 30 billion yuan. Risk Alert Changes in domestic and international economic fundamentals may exceed expectations; macro policies may exceed expectations.