Hong Kong stock concept tracking| Copper prices are expected to rise under the consensus of mineral shortage (with concept stocks attached)

The price of copper in the New York market surged over 5% on Wednesday, further surpassing other global benchmark prices, after U.S. President Donald Trump hinted at imposing a 25% tariff on copper imports. Trump mentioned imposing tariffs on copper during his address to Congress on Tuesday, causing traders to worry that the tariffs may be higher and implemented sooner than expected, leading to a frenzy of price increases on the New York Mercantile Exchange during the Asian session. According to ANZ Bank, the U.S. may find it difficult to replace imported aluminum and copper, as the country heavily relies on overseas supplies. "U.S. has limited ability in the short term to substitute imported refined copper with domestic supply," ANZ Bank stated in a report, adding that in the medium term, the U.S. has relatively low interest in investing in new primary smelting capacity. Huayuan Securities released a research report stating that under the consensus of supply shortage, the price center is expected to rise. Based on the impact of global copper mining capital expenditure, capacity expansion, and disruptive events such as strikes on the operating rate, the current period may still be in a period of production expansion, but with a declining growth rate. As the shortage at the mine gradually transmits to the metal end and the growth rate of secondary copper smelting declines, the copper industry as a whole remains in a tight balance, with supply and demand expected to be balanced at 170,000, 70,000, 160,000, and 260,000 tons in 2024-2027. Copper mining company-related Hong Kong stocks include: CMOC Group Limited (03993): According to CMOC Group Limited, following the "strong start" in January 2025, its TFM company achieved a historical record in cathode copper production in February, exceeding the planned targets in terms of ore processing volume. Zijin Mining Group (02899): Zijin Mining Group plans to continue increasing its production in 2025: producing 1.15 million tons of copper, 85 tons of gold, 440,000 tons of zinc (lead), equivalent to 40,000 tons of lithium carbonate, 450 tons of silver, and 10,000 tons of molybdenum. MMG (01208): The company is a medium to large-sized non-ferrous metal mining company, mainly engaged in the exploration and development of overseas copper, zinc and other metal mines, serving as a platform for overseas resources integration of the Minmetals Group, with a copper equity production of 265,000 tons in 2024, ranking third among domestic listed companies, behind Zijin Mining Group and CMOC Group Limited. Copper is the core product of the company, accounting for 76% of the company's operating income in 2023, with zinc accounting for 8.3%. The core mine Las Bambas copper mine has resumed normal operations, with production increasing and costs sharply reduced. Las Bambas copper mine is one of the top 10 copper mines in the world, with a copper resource of 8.7 million tons, reserves of 4.6 million tons, producing 323,000 tons of copper in 2024, expected to produce 400,000 tons of copper in 2025. In 2023, the revenue from the Bambas copper mine accounted for 79% of the company, EBITDA accounted for 92% of the company, and as of mid-2024, the Bambas copper mine assets accounted for 62% of the company, being the core mine of the company.