Guosen: The prices from refrigerant manufacturers continue to rise, while air conditioner production continues to increase under a high base.

Guosen released a research report stating that in February, mainstream refrigerant manufacturers continued to raise prices. In terms of the refrigerant foreign trade market, recent export demand has been affected by destocking, with foreign trade leading over domestic circulation market, resulting in a short-term reversal of domestic and foreign price differentials. Companies have maintained consistent domestic and foreign pricing for varieties such as R32, R134a, R410a, R125, while the foreign trade price for R22 remains lower than the domestic trade price. Production data for air conditioning sales in the first quarter of 2025 continues to rise, with a passive reduction in export volume in January and February, gradually picking up in March. Besides seasonal stocking factors, the implementation of two new policies has also played a significant role. Additionally, as the government subsidy program initiated in the offseason last year continues this year, it is expected to stimulate demand that was not met in the second quarter peak season. Key points from Guosen include: - Mainstream refrigerant manufacturers continued to raise prices in February. - Domestic prices for refrigerants increased, with R22 priced at 36,500 yuan per ton, R134a at 45,000 yuan per ton, R125 at 44,500 yuan per ton, R32 at 45,000 yuan per ton, R410a maintained at 44,500 yuan per ton, R152a at 26,000 yuan per ton, R142b unchanged at 25,000 yuan per ton, and R143a at 44,000-44,500 yuan per ton. - The foreign trade market for refrigerants saw a shift due to reduced export demand caused by destocking. Prices for R32, R134a, R410a, and R125 were unified for both domestic and foreign trade, while R22 prices for foreign trade remained lower than domestic trade. The allocation of refrigerant quotas for 2025 was issued, signaling a positive long-term outlook for product demand. The strict enforcement of the quota policy and the continued trend of limited supply are expected to support sustained growth in the refrigerant product market. The continuation of the government subsidy policy in 2025 and the steady growth in air conditioning production, despite a high base, are expected to promote further increase in production. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows an increase in air conditioning production in China in December 2024, as well as continuous growth in production throughout the year. The report also indicates a positive growth trend in both domestic and export production of household air conditioners in 2025. Risks include lower-than-expected demand for fluorine chemical products, policy risks related to environmental regulations on refrigerants, trade disputes affecting exports, stagnant real estate market conditions, delays in project implementation by companies, rising raw material prices, and safety risks in the chemical industry.