Ke Rui Research Center: In February, the Chinese real estate market continued to stabilize after the downturn. The top 100 real estate enterprises achieved a year-on-year increase of 1.2% in sales turnover.

On March 6, Ke Rui Research Center published an article stating that in February 2025, the Chinese real estate market continued to stabilize after the downward trend, coupled with the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, maintaining overall low-level operations. In February, the TOP 100 real estate companies achieved a sales turnover of 188.12 billion yuan, an increase of 1.2% year-on-year, with monthly performance levels remaining at historically low levels. In February 2025, there were changes in the sales thresholds of the top 100 real estate companies at different levels. Among them, the sales turnover thresholds of the TOP 20 and TOP 30 real estate companies decreased by 4.8% and 11.7% year-on-year to 5.17 billion yuan and 2.86 billion yuan respectively. The thresholds of the TOP 50 and TOP 100 real estate companies increased by 1.8% and 6.5% year-on-year to 1.86 billion yuan and 750 million yuan respectively. In terms of company performance, in February 2025, more than half of the top 100 real estate companies saw a year-on-year increase in monthly performance, with 29 companies achieving a monthly performance increase of more than 30%. Companies such as China Overseas Land & Investment, CHINA RES LAND, Zhuhai Huafa Properties, YUEXIU PROPERTY, China Railway Construction Corporation, Poly Developments, and Power Construction Real Estate performed well, with both monthly and cumulative performance showing significant growth. Company Land Acquisition Central state-owned enterprises accelerate investment, focusing on high-quality land in core cities Key points: 1. The heat of land transactions in core cities has significantly increased, driving the continued recovery of investments by key monitoring companies. In February, the monthly investment amount of 30 monitored real estate companies approached 76.9 billion yuan, an increase of 21% month-on-month and 83% year-on-year, with companies such as CHINA RES LAND acquiring land worth over 7 billion yuan, and Poly Developments and Holdings Group and GREENTOWN CHINA nearing 5 billion yuan. The land acquisition area of 30 companies was 3.05 million square meters, increasing by 12% month-on-month and 83% year-on-year. Although the transaction floor price in February dropped significantly compared to January due to structural factors, it still maintained a level of 25,000 yuan per square meter. 2. Significant acceleration in investment by central enterprises. In January-February, a total of 8 companies with land acquisition amounts exceeding 10 billion yuan on a full-caliber basis, other than Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group, were all central state-owned enterprises, including CHINA RES LAND, CHINA JINMAO, Poly Developments and Holdings Group, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings, and China Overseas Land & Investment, all of which had accumulated new land acquisition amounts and values exceeding tens of billions of yuan. In addition, in terms of year-on-year growth rates, all 5 central enterprises showed significant increases. On the one hand, the improvement in demand during the stabilization process was remarkable, central enterprises began to invest early, focusing on core land in core cities, acquiring land in the first quarter and forming salable values within the year, which has always been the investment style of central enterprises; on the other hand, the coordination between the pace and quality of land supply in core cities is indispensable, especially in the case of high premium transactions for land in key areas, making it difficult for small and medium-sized real estate companies to find bargains. 3. Under the stabilization of the market, land auctions in core cities have rebounded first. Premium land plots are frequently seen in first and second-tier cities, while the recovery is less evident in third and fourth-tier cities, reflecting the ongoing differentiation in the stabilization and recovery progress of various markets. First and second-tier cities have adopted a strategy of multiple batches, reduced volume and improved quality of land supply, which has had a targeted effect. Leading real estate companies continue to increase their investments in core residential land in these cities, with companies such as CHINA RES LAND, CHINA JINMAO, Poly Developments and Holdings Group investing over tens of billions this month. However, third and fourth-tier cities will continue to rely on the policy window of expanding local government debt space in 2025, continue to strictly control land supply and focus on adjusting supply and demand in core areas, prioritizing the revitalization of idle land in key regions. Company Financing After 7 months, a company issued overseas bonds again Key points: 1. Total financing: In February 2025, the total financing amount of 65 typical real estate companies was 21.588 billion yuan, a decrease of 34.6% month-on-month and 22.6% year-on-year, reaching a monthly low in recent years, with the significant month-on-month and year-on-year decrease in financing scale mainly due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday. In terms of financing structure, domestic debt financing for real estate companies this month was 174.47 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.1% month-on-month and an increase of 24.9% year-on-year; overseas debt financing was 3.64 billion yuan, an 82% increase month-on-month; asset securitization financing was 0.501 billion yuan, a 95.3% decrease month-on-month and 96.4% decrease year-on-year. 2. Financing costs: In January-February 2025, the average new bond financing cost for 65 typical real estate companies was 3.48%, an increase of 0.55 percentage points compared to 2024, with the financing costs for overseas bonds at 8.45%, an increase of 4.27 percentage points compared to the full year 2024, and the domestic bond financing costs at 2.82%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points compared to the full year 2024. Looking at the monthly data, this month, the companies that mainly issued domestic bonds were high-quality real estate companies such as Poly Developments, MIDEA REAL EST, and China Overseas Land & Investment, leading to a month-on-month decrease in domestic bond financing costs to 2.69%, remaining at a low level overall; while Green City issued two overseas senior notes totaling 500 million US dollars with an interest rate of 8.45%, marking the return of companies issuing overseas senior notes after a gap of 7 months, with the last time being traced back to July 2024 when Yuexiu issued green bonds in Hong Kong. 3. Company performance: The company with the largest financing amount this month was Vanke, which obtained a total of 7 billion yuan in loans from its major shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group. In terms of company tiers, the average financing amount for the TOP 10 real estate companies in January-February 2025 was 2.833 billion yuan, the highest among all tiers. The average financing amount for the TOP 51+ real estate companies was 513 million yuan, a 22.94% year-on-year increase, making it the only tier with an increase in financing amount.The main reason for the year-on-year growth of the scale of the echelon is the 46 billion yuan CMBS issued by Financial Street Holdings in January, which is equivalent to one-third of the overall financing scale of the echelon property developers in January and February 2024. In terms of financing costs, the echelon of TOP51+ property developers has the lowest financing cost at 2.55%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points compared to the full-year financing cost in 2024. The decrease is also the largest, and it is 0.85 percentage points lower than the property developers in the TOP11-30 echelon with the highest financing costs.Je suis fatigu de travailler.