Tianfeng: Changes in supply and demand are expected to drive the continued increase in antimony prices. It is recommended to pay attention to Tibet Huayu Mining (601020.SH) and others.

Tianfeng released a research report stating that the arrival of the photovoltaic installation boom has reversed the declining trend of photovoltaic overcapacity last year, and this prosperity is expected to continue at least until June; the recovery of exports has also reversed the embarrassing shortage of export demand last year. Overall, compared with last year, the supply and demand of antimony this year is moving towards a more difficult supply disturbance and a more hopeful demand prosperity. The bank believes that such marginal changes in supply and demand are expected to drive the continuous rise in antimony prices, constantly setting new historical highs. It is recommended to pay attention to antimony sector companies: Guangxi Huaxi Nonferrous Metal (600301.SH), Hunan Gold Corporation (002155.SZ), Tibet Huayu Mining (601020.SH). Key points from Tianfeng: Antimony prices have continued to rise since the beginning of 2025, breaking historical highs As of March 3, 2025, the average price of 99.65% pure antimony ingots quoted by the Antimony Industry Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association reached 165,000 yuan per ton, an increase of 7,000 yuan per ton from the previous quoted day, and an increase of 15.4% from January 2nd when it was 143,000 yuan per ton. Reviewing 2024, antimony prices rose due to supply-side drivers, but were suppressed by demand-side pressures Antimony prices rose in the first half of 2024: mainly due to environmental inspections in Hunan in May affecting mine production; temporary obstacles in Russia's imports; multiple factors such as the high prosperity of the photovoltaic and home appliance terminals and traders' speculation catalyzed a significant increase in antimony prices in the first half of the year. Antimony prices fell in the second half of 2024: starting in July, photovoltaic glass began to cut overcapacity, weakening demand margins; in mid-September, antimony was placed under export control, leading to a lack of export demand and a decline in antimony prices. Key pricing factors from 2024 reappear, deepening in favor of rising antimony prices Supply-side: high domestic and foreign price differentials have led to a shortage in imports. In August 2024, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced export controls on antimony and other items. After the controls were announced, China's export volume in October dropped to zero, and the shortage of supplies overseas subsequently led to a significant increase in the domestic and foreign price differential from 28,000 yuan per ton to 211,000 yuan per ton. With external prices significantly higher than domestic prices, China's imports of antimony ore rapidly decreased. In December, antimony ore imports were only 466 metric tons (compared to an average of 1,437 tons from January to August). With the further expansion of the price differential between domestic and foreign markets, the bank expects import volumes to further decrease, and domestic imports may become tighter. Demand-side: the photovoltaic installation boom injects prosperity into the demand on the photovoltaic side, and export demand is gradually recovering. The introduction of the "Notice on Deepening the Marketization Reform of Pricing for New Energy Internet Access to Promote High-Quality Development of New Energy" directly gave rise to two types of installation logics for existing projects "grid connection rush" and new projects "filing rush". From high-frequency data, it can be seen that the utilization rate and inventory data of photovoltaic glass have shown positive turning points, and the recovery on the photovoltaic side is expected to support the upward demand for antimony. In addition, the export volume has gradually recovered from the low point in September last year to 1,700 tons in December, reaching 64% of the normal export volume, and the recovery of export demand is expected to support the rise in antimony prices. Expecting the continuity of antimony price hikes, industry companies are expected to benefit fully In summary: (1) the supply-side disturbances that supported the rise in antimony prices in April and May last year have reappeared, and with the continuous expansion of the price differential between domestic and foreign markets, the shortage in imported raw materials may continue for a longer period. (2) Factors that led to weakening antimony demand in July and September last year have reversed, the arrival of the photovoltaic installation boom has reversed the declining trend of photovoltaic overcapacity last year, and this prosperity is expected to last at least until June; the recovery of exports has also reversed the embarrassing shortage of export demand last year. Risk Warning: risks of significant supply growth, risks of demand falling short of expectations, risks of significant fluctuations in metal prices.