The Federal Reserve Beige Book: Economic growth in the United States is slowing down. The term "tariffs" is mentioned 50 times!

The Beige Book released by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday showed that the overall trend of the US economy in February was flat or slightly declining, with 8 out of 12 Federal Reserve districts reporting stagnant or slightly shrinking growth. Among them, 6 districts had no change in economic activity, 2 districts saw slight contraction, and the remaining 4 districts only achieved "modest or moderate growth." Overall, the US economic activity saw "slight growth," but at the time of the report release, concerns about the US economy possibly entering a recession were on the rise. Priscilla Thiagamoorthy, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, said, "The Federal Reserve's regional economic reports suggest that the economy is slowing down." In the report, the word "tariffs" was mentioned 50 times, with almost all districts mentioning trade uncertainty. In particular, in the Kansas City district, the Beige Book pointed out that the outlook for local community service organizations "is noticeably less optimistic than before." Car dealers in the St. Louis district reported that despite more attractive prices, the sales of new and used cars were far below expectations. Additionally, a food service distributor reflected that consumers "are buying less, less frequently, and are inclined to choose cheaper items." In Massachusetts, restaurant sales declined, but respondents attributed this to the increasing popularity of "Dry January" (a movement to abstain from alcohol in January) rather than economic factors. A GDP key tracking indicator from the Atlanta Federal Reserve currently predicts that the US economic growth rate in the first quarter may be -2.8%. Influenced by tariff policies and economic uncertainty, both consumer and business spending activities are decreasing. In terms of the labor market, employment activities in all districts were overall weak, showing only "slight growth." Multiple districts reported that wage pressures have eased, indicating that demand in the job market may be cooling down. Despite a slowing economic growth, inflation pressures still exist, with several districts reporting that the pace of price increases has accelerated. Most businesses in the majority of districts anticipate that if tariffs are implemented, they will be forced to raise prices, and some businesses have already adjusted prices in anticipation of potential cost increases.