Guotou Securities: Li Auto-W (02015) target price of 135.84 Hong Kong dollars, maintains "buy" rating.

Guotou Securities released a research report stating that it maintains a "buy" rating for LI AUTO-W(02015) and expects the company's net profit attributable to shareholders to be 8.1 billion, 13.5 billion, and 18.4 billion yuan, respectively, for the years 2024-2026. The corresponding current market value PEs are 20, 12, and 9 times. Referring to the valuation of comparable companies, the target price for the next 6 months is 126.96 yuan, or 135.84 Hong Kong dollars (converted at a real-time exchange rate of 1 RMB = 1.07 HKD on March 4th). Event: IDEAL CAR announced that it delivered 26,000 vehicles in February, an increase of 30% year-on-year and a decrease of 12% month-on-month. Key points from Guotou Securities: The decline in February sales was mainly due to the influence of the Spring Festival holiday, and incentive policies are expected to drive delivery recovery. 1) The decline in February deliveries was mainly due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday and fewer sales days in February. According to weekly retail data estimates, the retail sales volumes of various models in February were: L61,300 units, L75,600 units, L83,300 units, L93,300 units, and MEGA600 units; 2) On February 28th, the company announced a March purchase promotion for the L series, with additional discounts of 1-1.6 thousand yuan on the down payment on top of the 3-year 0-interest financial plan, resulting in total discounts of 2.5-3.8 thousand yuan. The L series delivery volume is expected to rebound with this incentive policy. In addition, the L series smart driving renewal version will be launched in May, with the ADPro chip switching from J5 to J6M and the addition of a laser radar. The ADMax chip will change from dual Orin-x to single Thor-U, which is expected to further enhance product competitiveness; 3) The company's supercharging station layout is becoming increasingly perfect (by the end of February, there were 1,874 supercharging stations and 10,008 charging piles, an increase of 29 and 188 respectively from the end of January). With the gradual accumulation of product reputation and adjustments to marketing strategies, the sales volume of MEGA is expected to continue to increase. Sales channels and service networks continue to upgrade. As of the end of February, IDEAL CAR has 500 retail centers nationwide, 488 aftersales and authorized painting centers, an increase of 2 from the end of January. Outlook: Smart driving + AI full power, pure electric series is expected to open a new product cycle. 1) Smart driving enters the first echelon, accelerating the embrace of AI: According to sales announcements, the proportion of orders for ADMAX in vehicles above 300,000 units/400,000 units has exceeded 70%/80%, OTA7.1 has been pushed to all users, and ADMaxV13 has been upgraded to 10 million Clips models, with smoother performance in complex road conditions. The upgrade of smart driving is expected to drive sales upward and continue to optimize sales structure; IDEAL AITalk proposed that the company become an artificial intelligence enterprise, while IDEAL students move from in-car devices to mobile phones; 2) Solid layout of the pure electric series, expected to open a new product cycle: MEGA sales are gradually increasing, confirming the effectiveness of its product strength and the reversal of its operating strategy; acceleration in infrastructure layout, the number of charging stations is expected to reach 2,000 by the end of Q1 in 2025; the i8 has already released its exterior design and is expected to be launched in July, with a good competitive landscape for pure electric new products, fewer competitors, strong product development by the company, and the potential to open a new pure electric product cycle. Risk warning: Intensified industry competition risks, unexpected reduction in supply chain costs, and unexpected pace of vehicle listings, etc.