The US tariffs on Canada are in effect, posing a significant risk to the US business of potassium fertilizer giant Nutrien (NTR.US).

The policy of the United States imposing tariffs as high as 25% on imported goods from Canada took effect on Tuesday local time. Prior to this, most market participants expected a further delay or possibly exemptions from tariffs on core imported goods from Canada such as potassium fertilizer and crude oil. The international energy and commodity price assessment agency Argus stated that before President Trump officially announced the imposition of tariffs on Canadian imports, including potassium fertilizer, most traders were betting that potassium fertilizer would be exempted. The agency also stated that Canadian potassium fertilizer giant Nutrien (NTR.US) faces the greatest risk from US tariffs among Canada's largest publicly traded companies. Following the impact of Trump's 25% tariff policy on Canadian imports, Nutrien's stock price fell over 2% on Tuesday. The United States has limited production of MOP (potassium chloride), with over 80% of its potassium fertilizer demand being met by Canada, totaling 9 to 10 million tons annually; no other major potassium fertilizer import market is so dependent on a single source. In contrast, the largest US integrated fertilizer producer, The Mosaic Company (MOS.US), may benefit from the tariffs, as the huge domestic fertilizer demand in the US will bring significant profits to The Mosaic Company. Furthermore, after sanctions in 2022, the US stopped importing MOP from Belarus, and the lack of Canadian MOP will further limit the US's domestic potassium fertilizer supply choices. Russia and Belarus are both major global fertilizer producers and exporters, holding important production and export shares in global potassium, nitrogen, and phosphate fertilizers. According to statistics from the International Fertilizer Association (IFA) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Russia and Belarus collectively control up to 40% of global potassium fertilizer exports, with Belarus's top potassium fertilizer producer, Belaruskali, being subject to joint sanctions from the US and the EU. However, in terms of supply and demand expectations in the short to medium term, Argus stated that the upcoming US spring market should not be significantly negatively impacted, mainly because suppliers have stocked up and adjusted inventories in advance, but prices of granular MOP have been on the rise. For Nutrien, a Canadian fertilizer producer headquartered in Canada, the company may face the greatest tariff risk among Canadian large companies. Data compiled by Syntax shows that as much as 61% of Nutrien's annual revenue (approximately $17.6 billion) comes from the US market. The data analysis firm stated that US tariffs could bring an additional $4.4 billion in costs to Nutrien's customers, prompting them to turn to The Mosaic Company. Other companies at risk of tariffs listed by Syntax include oil and gas pipeline operators Enbridge (ENB.US) and TC Energy (TRP), Canada's largest global auto parts manufacturer Magna International Inc. (MGA.US), and dairy company Saputo (SAPIF.US). On Monday local time in the US, President Trump announced during a press conference that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR, the global leader in chip manufacturing, would invest $100 billion in the US. He also stated that the US would impose a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico starting on the 4th of this month, claiming that there was no longer any room for negotiation with these two US allies. On March 4th local time, the first day of the tariff war initiated by Trump against China, Canada, and Mexico, the US stock market experienced dramatic fluctuations. The S&P 500 index plummeted 2% at one point, wiping out the $3.4 trillion in gains accumulated since the election day on November 5th, although there was a brief rebound in the afternoon, the closing still hit a new low since November 4th. However, the US Commerce Secretary later stated that a "compromise could be reached with Canada and Mexico," leading to a recovery in the US stock market towards the end of the day. Trump's latest threats of tariffs on China, Canada, Mexico, and even the global economy come at a time when the US economy is fragile, with persistently high inflation rates remaining a major concern for Americans. Many economists state that higher import tariffs than before will further raise domestic price levels in the US, as companies will continuously try to pass on costs to consumers. The vast low-to-middle-income groups in the US are facing drastic cuts in consumer spending due to high interest rates and sustained high inflation. Currently, US consumption is only being supported by the high net worth consumer group, and consumption is the core drive of US economic growth.