Haitong: The market for multi-link inspections of the respiratory tract is expected to continue to expand. It is recommended to pay attention to Innovita Biological Technology (688253.SH) and other companies.

Haitong released a research report stating that the competition in the domestic respiratory multi-link detection products for nucleic acid testing is relatively fierce, while there are relatively few antigen and antibody products. Innovita Biological Technology has multiple exclusive products for respiratory antigen/antibody multi-link detection, while Sansure Biotech Inc. is collaborating with Meituan to promote the "home rapid testing model." The barriers for over-the-counter respiratory multi-link detection products in the United States are relatively high, and the number of approvals has gradually increased since 2024. Chinese companies that have obtained FDA Emergency Use Authorization for home testing include Andon Health, Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech, and Aikang Biology. The bank believes that companies with early certification and comprehensive product categories are expected to have greater opportunities, and recommends paying attention to Innovita Biological Technology (688253.SH), Sansure Biotech Inc. (688289.SH), Andon Health (002432.SZ), Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech, etc. (300482.SZ). The main viewpoints of Haitong are as follows: The global prevalence of seasonal respiratory diseases is increasing, and there is a substantial increase in testing demand. With the continuous advancement of China's tiered diagnosis and treatment system, the release of multiple respiratory-related clinical practice guidelines and expert consensus, and the increasing awareness of early diagnosis and treatment by patients, the respiratory testing industry is expanding rapidly. In 2024, Sansure Biotech Inc.'s respiratory products achieved a doubling of operating income year-on-year, while Innovita Biological Technology's total revenue increased by 30%, with an 88% year-on-year growth in the first half of 2024. Currently, the alternation in the prevalence of the novel coronavirus and influenza viruses is gradually emerging. The bank believes that in the post-epidemic period, seasonal influenza will show more mixed infection patterns, and multi-link testing can help achieve precise diagnosis and treatment of respiratory infections, which is expected to drive the long-term expansion of the testing market. Differential diagnosis is gradually becoming an industry consensus, with multi-link testing covering a broader range and lower prices. In clinical practice, pathogen identification helps in targeted treatment. According to the medical quality control indicators issued by the National Health Commission, medical institutions must conduct quality control based on the positivity rate of influenza virus pathogen diagnosis before using antiviral drugs for influenza. Multi-link testing products can accurately and quickly identify multiple common respiratory pathogens at once, with higher testing efficiency and cost-effectiveness, providing significant clinical value and potentially becoming a more effective diagnostic solution. The expected domestic market for respiratory testing products within medical facilities is over 8 billion yuan, and the consumer market (2C) is expected to further expand. In 2008, 2013, and 2018, the two-week visit rates for residents with respiratory diseases (upper respiratory tract infections, pneumonia) were 39.2 per thousand, 23.7 per thousand, and 49.5 per thousand, respectively, corresponding to 1.36 billion, 840 million, and 1.8 billion respiratory visits per year. Based on a baseline of 1.8 billion visits (excluding inpatients), with a penetration rate of 10-20% and a factory price of 20-50 yuan, the bank estimates an internal market space of 81 billion yuan under neutral expectations. Risk factors: Fluctuations in the prevalence of respiratory diseases, industry policy risks, risks of product development not meeting expectations, and valuation volatility risks.