Buffett called tariffs "acts of war." The turbulence in the US stock market has intensified.

date
04/03/2025
avatar
GMT Eight
Recently, the "Stock God" Buffett stated that tariffs are a form of "warfare" and may further exacerbate inflationary pressures. A series of recent events have shaken the market, deteriorating investor sentiment, leading to a drop in US stocks on Monday, with the Nasdaq falling over 3% at one point. After the presidential election, many market analysts believed that the Trump administration's policies would focus primarily on deregulation and promoting economic growth, rather than sparking trade conflicts. However, the reality has shown that tariffs are becoming a core part of its policy agenda. This shift has led the market to give back the post-election gains, with US stock indices returning to levels from early November last year. Dave Rosenberg, Chief Economist at Rosenberg Research, said, "From a market perspective, the 'honeymoon period' between Trump and the market is over." Currently, only 8% of S&P 500 constituent stocks have hit 52-week highs, compared to 25% back in early November last year. He further pointed out, "US major indices have made almost no progress since election day, in stark contrast to the strong rally after Trump's victory in 2016. The US economy is not accelerating but slowing down instead." This trend is not surprising. Looking back at 2018 during Trump's first term, uncertainty over trade conflicts caused a significant drop in the S&P 500 index. Foreign media had warned in December last year that the market could face reality shocks after the inauguration day. Now, the market is digesting these impacts, with the S&P 500 experiencing a significant pullback in February. Analyst Jon Harrison of TS Lombard pointed out that the Trump administration initially took a mild approach in its new round of tariff policies, such as delays in implementation and selective levies, leading investors to believe that some negotiation compromise would eventually be reached. However, last week's sudden series of tariff and trade news shattered this market "complacency." The White House recently decided to impose an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods and push forward with a 25% tariff plan on Mexican and Canadian goods, completely shattering market expectations for trade stability. This decision also prompted investors to reevaluate the seriousness of the 25% tariff measures the Trump administration might take against the EU. With escalating trade policy uncertainty, the market is facing multiple challenges. Evercore ISI strategist Julian Emanuel said, "The ongoing negotiations of Trade Conflict 2.0 and the uncertainty it brings are a significant disadvantage for the S&P 500 index." Meanwhile, consumer confidence index started showing warning signals, consumer spending slowed down, risks of large-scale government layoffs increased, all of which could drag down economic growth. The US job market is also showing cracks. Emanuel pointed out that the recent rise in initial jobless claims in the US last week is the first sign of economic weakness in recent "hard data." Analyst Dennis DeBusschere of 22V Research stated that the current series of policy adjustments could trigger a negative feedback loop in the economy: "If the current tariff threats materialize and the US economy is already slowing down, consumer demand may be impacted, further exacerbating the risk of economic recession." Despite the short-term pressure on the market, investors do not need to completely give up on US stocks. Emanuel of Evercore still expects the S&P 500 index to rise to 6,800 points this year. Analyst Nicholas Colas of DataTrek emphasized that investors should focus more on long-term trends: "'American exceptionalism' means that US stocks still have a competitive advantage in the long term, but this does not guarantee that the S&P 500 index will outperform global markets every quarter."

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