Preview of US Stock Market | Three major stock index futures rose together, the market welcomed a heavyweight week, and cryptocurrency concept stocks rose before the market.

Pre-market market trends 1. Before the market on March 3 (Monday), the futures of the three major US stock indexes all rose. As of the time of writing, Dow futures rose 0.17%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.34%, and Nasdaq futures rose 0.49%. 2. At the time of writing, the German DAX index rose 1.48%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.65%, the French CAC 40 index rose 0.94%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose 0.74%. 3. At the time of writing, WTI crude oil rose 0.10% to $69.83 per barrel. Brent crude oil rose 0.22% to $72.97 per barrel. Market News The market is gearing up for an action-packed week! Trump's speech and the February non-farm payrolls are eagerly anticipated. In the first trading week of March, a series of major events and important economic data are set to take place. Trump's speech at the Joint Session of Congress on Tuesday is crucial as it will determine whether US tariff policies will escalate further, whether there will be new actions to cut government budgets under Musk's leadership of DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency), and when economic policies to promote growth, such as tax cuts, will be implemented. In addition, the White House will host its first cryptocurrency summit on March 7, with Trump presiding over the meeting, which is crucial for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin that have seen a recent sharp decline. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book on economic conditions. If the Beige Book shows signs of a "soft landing" in the economy, it may support a stronger stock market and US dollar index, but it could weaken bets on a rate cut in March. Additionally, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the February non-farm payrolls data on Friday. Recent US economic data has been weak, including consumer confidence, business activity, and retail sales. Market forecasts suggest that job gains in February are expected to be 133,000, lower than January's 143,000, with an unemployment rate of 4%. Non-farm payrolls data is a key indicator of the health of the US economy, and a decrease in job growth for two consecutive months indicates decreased willingness of companies to expand, weakening economic growth momentum, and increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. sounds the alarm: the short-term rise of the S&P 500 hits a roadblock, and any rebound may be short-lived. In a report, David Kostin, a strategist at Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., pointed out last week that as the benchmark index briefly erased gains since 2025, investors' risk exposure has decreased, but the current exposure level is still not low enough to indicate "tactical upward potential due to low positions." Kostin said, "To completely reverse the recent weak trend of US stocks, the prospects for US economic growth must improve." Furthermore, he has lowered his full-year profit growth expectations from 11% to 9%. Scott Rubner, Managing Director of Global Markets and Tactical Specialist at Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., also believes that demand in the stock market is not enough to support continued growth. Rubner turned bearish last month, as funding from retail and other buyers began to decrease. He pointed out that the market is in the final stage of position adjustment. The end of the two-year leadership cycle of the US seven giants sounds the alarm, with a sharp increase in demand for put options by traders. Due to growing concerns among investors about the US leadership in artificial intelligence and the overall economy, the so-called US "seven giants" have been lagging behind the market, prompting investors to seek more protection. In the second half of February, the cost of most options for the "seven giants" increased. For example, the three-month implied volatility for Apple Inc. reached its highest level since September last year last week, with its skew reaching the highest level since August last year - when the unwinding of yen carry trades caused a global financial market scare and stimulated demand for protection. Another unsettling sign is the continuous increase in put option positions for stocks like NVIDIA Corporation. "Bubble hunter" Grantham warns again: US stocks are hanging in the third largest "super bubble" in history. Legendary market strategist Jeremy Grantham has recently warned that the US stock market is currently in a "super bubble" state, ranking third in history behind the 1989 Japanese bubble and the real estate bubble of the same period. Grantham bluntly stated in an interview, "I have always believed that the longer a bubble persists, the larger it grows, and the higher it gets, the more exciting it becomes, but also the more dangerous it becomes, and currently, US stocks have risen to the level of a super bubble." However, he also noted that compared to the 1989 Japanese bubble and the real estate bubble of the time, there are still some differences in the current US stock bubble. In fact, this is not the first time Grantham has predicted a crash in the US stock market. He had warned investors to stay away from US stocks in 2024 and predicted a 50% decline in US stocks in 2023, but the S&P 500 index rose by over 23% in those two years. Stagflation concerns return to Wall Street, the Fed may face a dilemma. In recent times, concerns about the possibility of stagflation in the US economy have been on the rise. Several top analysts believe that the US may face a situation of high inflation and low economic growth simultaneously. Tosten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo Global Management Inc., believes that the elements of stagflation may already be present. He points out that global trade is becoming more fragmented, increased global immigration, and industrial policies in other countries restrict competition, all of which could lead to price increases. Davaar Josh, Chief Strategist at BCA Research, believes the US may enter a "mini stagflation" in the second quarter of this year. Josh said inflation appears to be "stuck" above the Fed's target of 2%. Higher prices will make the Fed reluctant to further cut rates this year, which could exacerbate the slowdown in economic growth. He added, "I think this could happen soon." Barry Bannister, Managing Director and Chief Equity Strategist at Stifel, predicts that the US will experience mild stagflation in the second half of 2025.And believes that this situation could lead to a 10% decline in US stocks.Individual stock news Intel Corporation(INTC.US) 18A process chip attracts attention: NVIDIA Corporation(NVDA.US)Broadcom Inc.(AVGO.US) are conducting production tests, while AMD(AMD.US) is in the evaluation stage. Two sources familiar with the matter stated that NVIDIA Corporation and Broadcom Inc. are collaborating with Intel Corporation on production testing, showing initial confidence in Intel Corporation's advanced production technology. The tests are using Intel Corporation's 18A process, which is a series of technologies and methods developed over many years, capable of manufacturing advanced artificial intelligence processors and other complex chips. These tests indicate that these two companies are close to deciding whether to award Intel Corporation a multi-billion dollar manufacturing contract. This decision could bring unexpected revenue to Intel Corporation and endorse its contract manufacturing business. AMD is also evaluating whether Intel Corporation's 18A manufacturing process suits its needs, but it is currently unclear whether AMD has sent test chips to Intel Corporation's factories. As of the time of drafting, pre-market trading on Monday, Intel Corporation was up nearly 6%, Broadcom Inc. was up over 2%, AMD was up over 1%, and NVIDIA Corporation was down nearly 1%. Cryptocurrency concept stocks surge! Pre-market trading on Monday, as of the time of drafting, Bit Origin Limited(BTOG.US) soared over 480%, Argo Blockchain(ARBK.US) rose nearly 23%, Bitdeer Technologies(BTDR.US) rose nearly 14%, Strategy(MSTR.US) rose over 12%, MARA Holdings(MARA.US), Riot(RIOT.US), Cipher Mining(CIFR.US) rose over 10%, and Coinbase(COIN.US) rose over 9%. On the news front, Trump stated on social media that his January executive order will create a cryptocurrency reserve, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, SOL, and ADA. In addition, Trump will host the White House's first cryptocurrency summit on March 7, further solidifying his support for the cryptocurrency industry. Musk provokes public anger! Protests erupt in multiple locations in the US, calling for "Tesla, Inc.(TSLA.US) to be delisted." According to reports, numerous protesters gathered outside Tesla, Inc. stores in multiple locations in the US on March 1st, protesting Tesla, Inc. CEO Musk's leading the Department of Efficiency to push for reducing federal spending at the request of US President Trump. The protests calling for "Tesla, Inc. to be delisted" are part of a growing backlash in North America and Europe against Musk's increasingly disruptive role in Washington. Critics of Trump and Musk hope to stigmatize the purchase of Tesla, Inc. and undermine the automaker. It is reported that the "Tesla, Inc. delisting" protest website lists over 50 events, with more protests planned for later in March in various locations in the US, as well as in the UK, Spain, and Portugal. As of the time of drafting, Tesla, Inc. was up over 2% in pre-market trading on Monday. Dramatic changes in the automotive chip market? Automotive CIS giant ON Semiconductor(ON.US) seeks to acquire sensor leader Allegro(ALGM.US). According to sources, sensor integrated circuit supplier Allegro Microsystems, which focuses on automotive and industrial applications, is attracting acquisition interest from industry giant ON Semiconductor Corporation. Media reports suggest that ON Semiconductor Corporation has recently hired a professional consulting team to advance the acquisition process for Allegro, and sources indicate that there may be other bidders emerging, while Allegro has not yet indicated whether they are willing to accept ON Semiconductor Corporation's potential acquisition offer. As of the time of drafting, Allegro was up over 10% in pre-market trading on Monday. Upcoming important economic data and events 22:45 Beijing time - US February SPGI Manufacturing PMI final value 23:00 Beijing time - US February ISM Manufacturing PMI 00:35 Beijing time the next day - Speech by 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President MusaLem Earnings forecasts Tuesday pre-market: Sea(SE.US), Target Corporation(TGT.US), Best Buy Co., Inc.(BBY.US)