Hong Kong stocks concept tracking | Institutions predict that the trading volume of bulk real estate transactions will return to the growth path, and the real estate market will show signs of recovery (with concept stocks)

CITIC SEC research report stated that according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the development investment amount in 2024 was 10.03 trillion yuan, a decrease of 10.6% year-on-year; the sales amount and sales area of commercial housing were 9.68 trillion yuan and 9.74 billion square meters, a decrease of 17.1% and 12.9% year-on-year, narrowing by 2.1 and 1.4 percentage points compared to January-November 2024. Looking at the data for December 2024, the sales amount and sales area increased by 2.8% and 0.4% year-on-year, respectively. According to leading real estate agency platforms such as Beike, the transaction volume in 75 sample cities for the first 16 days of January 2025 decreased by 27% compared to December 2024. In terms of housing prices, according to Realdata, the average housing prices in sample cities in December 2024 decreased by 0.3% month-on-month; according to the Iceberg Index, in the first week of 2025, the marginal listing prices of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen changed by 0.10%, -0.17%, -0.08%, and 0.16%, respectively. The current downturn in the real estate market is partly due to seasonal factors, and CITIC SEC predicts that the real estate market will warm up after the Spring Festival. Xiao Yuanqi, Deputy Director of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, stated at a press conference on January 23 that as of January 22, loans for "white-listed" real estate projects amounted to 5.6 trillion yuan. A report released by CBRE predicts that the transaction volume of bulk property in China will return to growth in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 5%-10%. Xie Chen, head of CBRE China's research department, pointed out, "2025 will be a year of potential for the Chinese real estate market. We recommend investors to focus on core assets and emerging formats, such as long-term apartment projects in first-tier cities and strong second-tier cities with active population inflows; assets that have seen significant adjustments in prices and are on the verge of improving supply and demand in high-standard logistics facilities, as well as core office building opportunities in first-tier cities. " Huatai's research report believes that the heat of the current real estate market may continue, and attention should be maintained. They are optimistic about the rebound in volume and price in key city regional markets, as well as valuation recovery of real estate companies that have reserves or newly acquired resources in corresponding regions. Similarly, property management companies with solid performance and cash flow are expected to benefit from market stabilization. Real estate-related industry chain companies mentioned include CHINA OVERSEAS (00688), C&D INTL GROUP (01908), YUEXIU PROPERTY (00123), GREENTOWN CHINA (03900), SUNAC (01918), LONGFOR GROUP (00960), SINO-OCEAN GP (03377), CHINA VANKE (02202), CHINA RES LAND (01109), and COUNTRY GARDEN (CG SERVICES(06098). Real estate agencies mentioned include BEKE-W (02423) and CG SERVICES (06098).