The world is waiting for Monday's opening amidst chaos.
02/03/2025
GMT Eight
Global investors are in chaos, waiting for the opening on Monday.
1. Yesterday, the whole world was discussing the war of words between Trump and Zelensky, analysts began to study whether this news would have a significant impact on the market. When this event first occurred, the market didn't have such a strong awareness. However, after the global markets closed, social media quickly escalated, making people realize the seriousness of the issue - this public quarrel increased the uncertainty of reaching a peace agreement with Russia.
However, looking at the trend of Bitcoin (rising more than 2% on Saturday, reaching $85,000), the market doesn't seem too worried. The difficulty lies in a piece of news that emerged yesterday that supported cryptocurrencies - Trump will host the first cryptocurrency summit at the White House on next Friday (March 7) and will deliver a speech - the market sees this as further support for the cryptocurrency industry by Trump. However, we believe that the bigger significance of this meeting is that Trump wants to "reshape Trump trade" market faith, with Bitcoin and US stocks representing "Trump trade," saving Bitcoin also means saving US stocks. This meeting seems rushed, with only a week of preparation time, it should be a "market-saving" strategy thought up by Trump's economic team.
2. Amid the noise, a more significant news was buried - that is the speech of US Treasury Secretary Bennett.
Bennett claims that Mexico has proposed imposing tariffs on China equivalent to those imposed by the United States, and Canada should follow suit. If Canada also follows suit, it will be a good gesture. Trump's proposed tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada will take effect on March 4, while an additional 10% tariff on imports from China. From Bennett's speech, it is not ruled out that at the last minute Mexico and Canada will compromise with the US, while these countries may impose tariffs on China. If this is the case, the upward trend in the Chinese market will be tested.
3. Taking a step back from the above news events and analyzing the impact on the financial markets, it is not difficult to see Trump's true intentions:
On the one hand, to reshape "Trump trade" and regain the upward momentum of the US stock market; on the other hand, to create bad news for the Chinese market. Behind this, it reveals that Trump's understanding of the US-China market is gradually evolving into a "zero-sum game", with global capital shifting from the US market to the Chinese market, and the hype of the "China substitution theory" is replacing the "American exceptionalism".
So, let's see who will ignite the next round of upward momentum.
Source: WeChat public account "Wall Street Intelligence Circle", GMTEight Editor: Chen Qiuda.