From CALB (03931) YingXi, looking at the global strategy of power batteries and new opportunities for solid-state batteries.

On February 24, 2025, CALB (03931) announced a profit forecast, expecting a net profit of 780 million to 874 million RMB in 2024, a significant increase of 80%-100% year-on-year. According to the announcement, CALB's net profit for the second half of 2024 is estimated to be between 537 million and 625 million RMB, an increase of 115.66% to 151.1% compared to the previous period. After facing challenges of a downturn in the lithium battery market and intense competition in 2023, CALB's substantial increase in profit expectations has boosted market confidence in the lithium battery market. CALB attributes the significant growth in performance to the manifestation of economies of scale and the enhancement of technological strength. By continuously optimizing product performance and reducing costs, CALB has not only increased its competitiveness, but also significantly strengthened its profit margins. It is worth mentioning that in the latest quarterly review released by the Hang Seng Index Company on February 21, CALB successfully entered the Hang Seng Composite Index constituents and became effective on March 10. As a result, CALB's stock price gained a cumulative increase of 12.1% in a week. Strong downstream demand leads to high growth in shipments of dynamic storage in 2024 It is understood that CALB's core business mainly consists of power batteries and energy storage. Power battery products mainly include battery cells and modules, with power batteries accounting for 77.98% of the company's revenue structure in the first half of 2024; energy storage and other related products account for 22.02% of total revenue. Downstream customers in the passenger vehicle market include Changan, GAC, Geely, Wuling, Leap Motor, Mercedes-Benz Smart, Xiaopeng, Dongfeng, NIO, etc.; customers in the commercial vehicle market include Jinlong, Chery, Yutong, Ruiqi New Energy, etc.; and energy storage market customers include State Grid, China Energy Investment, Longyuan, Southern Power Grid, etc. CALB's significant performance increase is closely related to strong downstream demand and high growth in dynamic storage shipments. Specifically, data compiled by Data Collection shows that global sales of new energy vehicles reached approximately 18.21 million units in 2024, a 24.3% year-on-year increase. The vast majority of this increase came from China, where according to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, vehicle production and sales for 2024 reached 12.88 million units and 12.86 million units respectively, up by 34.4% and 35.5% year-on-year, with a market penetration rate of new energy vehicles reaching 40.9%, an increase of 9.3 percentage points from 2023. In the new year, demand for new energy vehicles in China remains strong. January 2025 saw production and sales of 1.015 million units and 944,000 units respectively, up by 29% and 29.4% year-on-year, with sales accounting for 38.9% of total vehicle sales. Domestic sales of new energy vehicles in January were 793,000 units, up by 26.2% year-on-year, with exports reaching 150,000 units, an increase of 49.6%, including 144,000 units of new energy passenger cars, up by 46.2%, and 7,000 units of new energy commercial vehicles, up by 210%. Driven by strong growth in the Chinese market, GGII predicts that global sales of new energy vehicles in 2025 are expected to exceed 21 million units, with the global automobile electrification penetration rate reaching 23.2%. The rapid increase in sales of new energy vehicles is driving high-speed growth in power batteries. According to SNEResearch, global electric vehicle battery usage reached 894.4GWh in 2024, an increase of 27.2% year-on-year. Among the top ten companies in global power battery shipments from January to December 2024, six were Chinese companies, three were Korean companies, and only one was a Japanese company. Haitong expects CALB's power battery shipments to reach 45GWh in 2024, an increase of 36.36% year-on-year. Looking at the energy storage market, GGII data shows that global front-end lithium energy storage installations reached 63GW/165GWh in 2024, an increase of 61.5%/77.4% year-on-year, with global installations expected to exceed 93GW/250GWh in 2025. The main drivers of market growth are: 1) Texas and California in the United States are increasing demand for energy storage systems to improve grid resilience; 2) European green energy transformation and energy security needs; 3) Demand for cross-border grid interconnection. Looking at performance in overseas markets, rapid growth in overseas orders has been achieved by many companies. In addition to enterprises that have been expanding overseas early such as Sungrow Power Supply, BYD Company Limited, and Vision Energy, emerging overseas enterprises such as Beijing HyperStrong Technology, Tianhe Energy Storage, and Jing Control Energy have also achieved rapid growth in overseas orders in 2024. Haitong predicts that CALB's energy storage shipments will reach 25GWh in 2024, an increase of 212.5%. According to SNEResearch statistics, CALB's energy storage battery shipments ranked fourth globally in 2024, with a market share of 6.64%. From an industry perspective, both power batteries and energy storage are expected to achieve high-speed growth this year. However, the competition in the new energy market has long been fierce. In the domestic market, giants like Contemporary Amperex Technology and BYD Company Limited are accelerating expansion, squeezing profits for CALB as a second-tier manufacturer. The challenge of expanding overseas markets remains, despite exporting to more than 40 countries.The market in the province needs to face the siege of LG New Energy and Samsung SDI.Facing market competition, CALB has launched the world's first "One-Stop" battery technology and has laid out a diversified energy storage product matrix, covering scenarios in electricity, household, and marine applications to seize the opportunity in the new energy transformation. At the same time, CALB is improving its global layout. On February 24, 2025, the CALB Portugal base officially broke ground. The project plans to invest approximately 2 billion euros and once completed, will have an annual production capacity of 15GWh of batteries and system production lines applied in the power and energy storage sectors. As the industry's first zero-carbon AI super factory, the super factory will begin deliveries in 2027. For CALB, this is an important beginning of establishing long-term cooperation with Portugal and a crucial moment in achieving global deliveries and speeding up the globalization process. Currently, CALB has established 9 major industrial bases and five research and development centers in China, Europe, and ASEAN, forming a globally covering industrial layout. In the European market, CALB's user base continues to expand, delivery numbers steadily increase, and product types become more diverse, with a market share of over 50% in the electric bus market in the UK. In the energy storage market, in July 2024, CALB cooperated with Sungrow Power Supply to successfully sign the then-largest energy storage project with a capacity of 7.8GWh. In November of the same year, CALB again collaborated with Sungrow Power Supply to sign the largest energy storage project in Europe with a capacity of 4.4GWh. Solid-state batteries become the next growth point The next growth point in the power battery industry comes from solid-state batteries. On February 15, BYD Company Limited publicly stated that it would start mass demonstration applications of full solid-state batteries in cars around 2027, with large-scale implementation by 2030. This news has once again pushed solid-state batteries into the public eye. Compared to traditional power batteries, solid-state batteries not only have high energy density but also have advantages such as good performance at low temperatures, reduced risk of leakage, and reduced risk of thermal runaway. The fast-charging issue that has plagued solid-state batteries has also been resolved in recent years. For high-end pure electric new energy vehicles, solid-state batteries address users' range anxiety, are safer, have lower degradation in northern regions, and the penetration rate in high-end models is expected to continue to increase. In the low-altitude economy, the higher energy density of solid-state batteries means aircraft can carry more payload, bringing higher economic value. On November 13, 2024, EHang Intelligent announced that its EH216-S, equipped with solid-state batteries, successfully completed a single uninterrupted flight test, reaching 48 minutes and 10 seconds, with a 60%-90% increase in endurance. This achievement marks the world's first unmanned manned electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft (eVTOL) to complete a solid-state battery flight test, taking an important step towards the application of solid-state batteries in low-altitude flight operations. Market research firm TrendForce's data shows that with the development of flying cars and electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft (eVTOL)/Urban Air Mobility (UAM), solid-state batteries are expected to become a mainstream battery technology for low-altitude flying vehicles, with global demand for solid-state batteries in the low-altitude flying market expected to reach 86GWh by 2030 and further increase to 302GWh by 2035. In the humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation field, humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation is an important branch of artificial intelligence that has made significant technological progress in recent years and has gradually entered various sectors such as industrial, household, medical, and education. In order to make humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation more efficient, safe, and durable, the choice of battery technology has become crucial. Solid-state batteries can also effectively improve the service life of Siasun Robot&Automation. This feature allows humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation to adapt to long-term tasks. For example, the third-generation intelligent humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation GoMate launched by Guangzhou Automobile Group has a range of up to 6 hours with full solid-state battery support, saving more than 80% in energy consumption compared to similar products. According to Founder's predictions, the total demand for solid-state batteries will exceed 100GWh in 2027 and reach 460GWh by 2030. CALB has also made early layouts in this field. According to its 2024 interim report, a high-specific energy density and high safety hybrid solid-liquid battery product with 400Wh/kg has entered the industrialization stage, and a high-energy sulfide all-solid-state battery has achieved a breakthrough in key technological stages. In conclusion, CALB's success is not just a performance report, but also reflects the transformation of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation's industrial chain from "scale expansion" to "technology + globalization". Facing pressure from giants and geopolitical games, whether it can achieve a "second growth curve" through technological iteration and overseas layouts will be the core suspense of future capital stories.