Lyon: Maintains a "outperform" rating on CTF SERVICES (00659) with a target price of HKD 8.2.
The company's estimated regular free cash flow from 2025 to 2027, after deducting the annual celebration expenses for Chow Tai Fook, is 8.1 billion yuan, enough to support its gradually increasing dividends, with a total estimated dividend payout of 8 billion yuan.
Lyon released a research report stating that CTF SERVICES (00659) maintains an "outperform" rating and a target price of HK$8.2, believing that CTF SERVICES' stock price is at a 42% discount to its net assets.
Lyon pointed out that CTF SERVICES announced good mid-term performance, with the company's recurring profit estimated to increase by 11% year-on-year, benefiting from the Asia Container Logistics Center and CHOW TAI FOOK Life Operating Health. The company also announced a special dividend of HK$0.3 per share as a positive surprise. Lyon still sees room for dividend growth, with the assumption that the company can still distribute an additional special dividend of HK$0.4 per share, with the equity-to-net debt ratio rising from 39% to 45%.
The company's target equity-to-net debt ratio is 40% to 45%, up from 39% in December. Lyon estimates that with the leverage, the ratio could rise to 45%, allowing for an additional special dividend of HK$0.4 per share, representing a 5.2% extra dividend. Lyon estimates that the company, excluding CHOW TAI FOOK Life, will have a recurring free cash flow of HK$8.1 billion from 2025 to 2027, enough to support gradual dividend payments, with a total estimated dividend payout of HK$8 billion.