Guotai Junan: Maintaining "buy" rating for SKB BIO-B (06990), core products entering commercialization phase of harvesting period

Guotai Junan issued a research report stating that it maintains a "hold" rating on SKB BIO-B (06990). The company's core products are entering a period of commercial harvest, with a number of heavyweight clinical data disclosures imminent and overseas clinical layout accelerating. Taking into account the uncertainty of the milestone payment confirmation pace from overseas partner MSD, the revenue forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to RMB 1.732 billion / 1.670 billion / 2.666 billion (previously RMB 1.720 billion / 1.924 billion / 2.534 billion). Guotai Junan's main points are as follows: Products are successively approved for market launch, and the first domestically produced TROP2ADC is expected to lead clinical iteration The company's core product, Lukangshatuzumab, was approved for market launch in November 2024, with the initial indication for second-line and above TNBC; subsequent 3L EGFRm NSCLC, and 2L EGFRm NSCLC are in the NDA stage and are expected to be successively approved for market launch by 2025. As the first domestically produced TROP2ADC to be approved for market launch, Lukangshatuzumab is expected to lead clinical drug iteration in the fields of breast cancer and lung cancer. In addition, Tagorelimab (PD-L1) was approved for market launch in January 2025 for nasopharyngeal cancer; Xituximab biosimilar was approved for market launch in February 2025; and Bodozumab (HER2ADC) is in the NDA stage. Heavyweight clinical data is being successively disclosed, providing potential catalysts As the company continues to advance multiple clinical trials, heavyweight clinical data is being successively disclosed, with potential data readouts worth attention including: (1) Lukangshatuzumab's registration clinical trial for 3L EGFRm NSCLC (first disclosure); (2) Lukangshatuzumab's registration clinical trial for 2L EGFRm NSCLC (first disclosure); (3) Lukangshatuzumab's combination with Tagorelimab for phase II clinical trial for 1Lwt NSCLC (follow-up data update). Merck continues to invest overseas, with the potential of new generation of heavyweight varieties emerging Lukangshatuzumab has become one of Merck's key assets in the field of oncology, with 12 key clinical trials successively initiated, including newly initiated indications for platinum-sensitive recurrent ovarian cancer and first-line TNBC (PD-L1TPS10) in February 2025. Lukangshatuzumab, backed by Merck's clinical assets such as Keytruda, has the best potential in its class, with broad application prospects, and is expected to become a new generation of heavyweight variety for pan-cancer treatment in the future. Risk warning: risks of clinical trial progress falling short of expectations; risks of new drug research and development failure; risks of market promotion and sales falling short of expectations.