Guosheng Securities: Server Power Supply and Backup Power Upgrade Driving Data Center Industry Transformation

Guosheng Securities released a research report stating that with the rapid increase in AI chip power consumption, the power density of data center cabinets is accelerating upgrade, leading to structural opportunities in the areas of server power supply (PSU), backup power (diesel generators, UPS/HVDC, BBU), etc. It is suggested to pay attention to core targets in the PSU field such as Shenzhen Megmeet Electrical (002851.SZ), Shenzhen Honor Electronic (300870.SZ), HVDC technology deployment companies Shenzhen Hopewind Electric (603063.SH), Hangzhou Zhongheng Electric (002364.SZ), Kehua Data Co., Ltd. (002335.SZ), as well as diesel generator suppliers Weichai Heavy Machinery (000880.SZ). Guosheng Securities' main points are as follows: Server Power Supply: Cabinet power density increase, mainland manufacturers gradually break through After high-voltage electricity enters the data center from the grid, the server power supply (PSU) first converts AC power to DC power and steps it down to 48 volts; then the DC/DC converter on the motherboard further converts the voltage to the 12 volts used by the CPU and the 0.8 volts used by the GPU. With the continuous increase in power consumption of chipsets represented by Nvidia, the power density of cabinets is growing, and peak power consumption may increase from 130-250kW in 2024-2025 to 250-900kW in 2026-2027. Current AI servers overseas use 5.5kW PSU, with the potential to upgrade to 10kW and above in the future. The company calculates that with a single-watt price of 2.5 yuan for a 5.5kW PSU, assuming an equivalent output volume of 25,000 cabinets for GB200NVL72 in 2025, the market size of the GB200NVL72 power supply would be 16.5 billion yuan. The competition in the server power supply market is concentrated, with Delta leading in AI server AC/DC power supplies with a market share of over 50%; Guangbao's 33KW Power Shelf 24Q4 is gradually shipping, with mass shipments expected in 25Q1; Shenzhen Megmeet Electrical has already entered Nvidia's GB200 power supply chain, and the company is expected to improve its product capabilities, increase its market share, and drive revenue and performance growth. Backup Power: The cornerstone of stable operation of data centers 1) AIDC drives the shortage of diesel generators. Diesel generators ensure the operation of data centers in case of power failures in the upstream power supply, with the power of diesel generators reaching up to twice the total IT load. The company calculates that the global data center diesel generator market is expected to reach 55.5 billion yuan in 2025. Overseas manufacturers dominate the data center diesel generator industry, with data centers mostly using products from Cummins, Caterpillar, MTU, Mitsubishi, etc., with the main differences between imported and domestic brands lying in the engine parts. Domestic brands such as Shanghai Cooltech Power, Yuchai, Weichai Heavy Machinery, and Panggu have already had some application cases in the data center market. 2) UPS steady growth, HVDC expected to lead the next generation of high-voltage high-efficiency platforms. UPS compensates for the blank period of generator start-up, ensuring uninterrupted power supply to data centers. The global UPS market size was 611 billion yuan in 2023, and is expected to reach 957 billion yuan by 2029, with a CAGR of 7.6%, steadily growing. In China, Huawei, Kehua, and Vertiv Technologies rank in the top three in terms of sales. The company believes that under the trend of high-power and high-density AI, it is expected to drive the upgrade of power distribution architectures to HVDC, improving efficiency, reducing losses, while supporting different effective payload rack configurations, effectively saving space for IT racks. In 2019, Alibaba, together with Delta and Hangzhou Zhongheng Electric, launched the Panama Power aimed at IDC applications. In 2024, Google researchers presented a speech titled "400V DC Rack for AI/Machine Learning Applications" at the global Open Compute Project summit, stating that the 800V high-voltage DC architecture has high efficiency advantages in future high-power AI data centers. 3) BBU standardization further opens up market space. BBU can support a few minutes of workload electricity and serves as an "in-rack UPS." BBUs have a 1:1 relationship with PSUs, matching power with PSUs. The company believes that in the future, BBUs are expected to achieve standardization, grow together with PSU demand, and with the increase in power density, the value volume is also expected to grow, driving the increase in the power market size. Risk Warning: Risks associated with technological road map evolution, R&D progress falling short of expectations, geopolitical risks, inaccurate calculations, etc.