BOCOM INTL: Various new energy storage technologies are blooming, and the commercialization of flow batteries is accelerating.

BOCOM INTL released a research report stating that large-scale long-duration energy storage is the development trend. It is expected that the mainland China will add approximately 190GW of new energy storage capacity from 2025 to 2030, which is 2.4 times the existing installed capacity. By 2030, the proportion of energy storage capacity with over 4 hours will reach 50%. In long-duration energy storage, the technological landscape is still evolving, with optimism for the development of flow batteries and compressed air energy storage. Currently, compressed air energy storage has a cost advantage, but flow batteries still have room to reduce costs, so the market share of these two technologies will depend on their cost reduction pace. Hydrogen storage is the ultimate goal of long-duration energy storage, but considering the current lack of technological maturity, the commercialization of hydrogen storage is expected to accelerate after 2035. BOCOM INTL's main points are as follows: Strong demand for energy storage, various new energy storage technologies are flourishing The characteristics of the randomness, intermittency, and volatility of new energy sources lead to low utilization rates, and energy storage is an important way to solve this problem. Traditional pumped storage cannot meet the future needs of grid energy storage due to resource limitations and construction cycles, prompting the urgent need for the development of new energy storage technologies. By 2024, renewable energy generation in mainland China has exceeded 30%. It is expected that by 2025/2030, wind power and solar energy generation in mainland China will account for 23%/35%, and the installed capacity of energy storage is expected to increase to 188/366GW, with new energy storage accounting for nearly 65%/73%. There are various paths for new energy storage technologies, with lithium-ion batteries still being the mainstream due to cost and technological advantages. However, due to the inability of lithium-ion batteries to meet the future needs of the energy storage industry in terms of safety and storage duration, other new energy storage technologies have emerged in the industry. Considering factors such as cost, safety, and technological maturity, compressed air energy storage, flow batteries, molten salt thermal storage, and lithium batteries are in the top tier. 2025 is expected to be a turning point in the development of long-duration energy storage, while lithium-ion batteries will still be the mainstream in the short term. The recent cancellation of mandatory storage policies has relieved new energy projects from policy burdens. In the short term, the installation demand for energy storage projects may be under pressure, but the continued growth of wind and solar power generation leads to issues of curtailment and consumption, hence the long-term demand for long-duration energy storage remains unchanged. It is estimated that by 2025/30, the proportion of energy storage with over 4 hours in mainland China will increase to 21%/50%. Regarding the evolution of the technological landscape of long-duration energy storage, considering that the initial investment cost of lithium-ion battery storage has already dropped to 500 yuan/kWh, manufacturers are developing energy storage systems of over 6MWh to meet the demand for large-capacity storage. In the short term, lithium-ion battery storage will still be the mainstream. From 2025 to 2030, the commercialization process of compressed air energy storage and flow batteries will accelerate, gradually becoming the main force of long-duration energy storage. The final proportion of the two technologies will depend on the pace of cost reduction. Hydrogen storage has a low energy conversion efficiency (about 40%) and higher costs, making it more suitable for seasonal and large-capacity storage. It is currently in the early stages of research and development, and it is expected that hydrogen storage will become a choice for long-duration energy storage by 2030, with the acceleration of commercialization progress expected by 2035. Flow batteries support the development of long-duration energy storage, and the commercialization process of vanadium flow batteries, zinc-bromine batteries, and others is accelerating. With advantages in safety, cycle life, and flexibility, the installed capacity of flow battery energy storage in mainland China reached 1.8GWh in 2024 (compared to 270MWh in 2023). Among mainstream flow batteries, vanadium flow batteries have obvious advantages in electrochemical performance, with a cost per Wh already down to 2 yuan and still room for further decrease. Its supply chain has been initially formed, supporting the development of projects in the hundreds of MWs. Zinc-bromine flow batteries continue to break through technically, with issues like zinc dendrites, self-discharge, and the corrosiveness of bromine and bromide preliminarily resolved. Due to its wide operating temperature range and low initial investment cost, it has already been applied in cold regions such as Xinjiang and Qinghai. After scaling up, the cost advantages are expected to become more significant. In the industrial chain, a focus is recommended on opportunities for domestic alternatives to vanadium flow battery membranes.