How does Starlink impact global telecommunications and satellite services? Goldman Sachs continues to be bullish on traditional operators.
25/02/2025
GMT Eight
Notice that satellite internet is gradually becoming an important player in the global telecommunications field with its unique charm and potential. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. has delved into the impact of emerging satellite internet service providers such as Starlink, Amazon.com, Inc., and several China Spacesat operators on global telecommunications and satellite services. The report points out that despite facing many challenges, satellite internet has brought new opportunities for telecom operators while also posing a significant competitive threat to existing satellite operators.
The Rise of Satellite Internet
SpaceX's Starlink, Amazon.com, Inc.'s Kuiper project, and several Chinese satellite operators are accelerating their deployment plans for low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s latest research report shows that if major companies achieve their launch targets, the number of LEO satellites will increase from the current 7,000 to 30,000 by 2030, and may exceed 78,000 by 2035.
Although satellite internet has tremendous potential, its development still faces many challenges. Firstly, regulatory issues are a significant barrier, including risks of space debris and spectrum conflicts. Secondly, economic costs are also a factor that cannot be ignored. The cost of satellite broadband services is currently higher than traditional telecom services, which may limit its competitiveness in price-sensitive markets. Additionally, LEO satellites have relatively short lifespans, usually around 5 years, which requires satellite operators to continuously invest funds in satellite updates and maintenance.
The report suggests that the threat of satellite internet to traditional telecom operators is limited, mainly due to capacity constraints of satellite operators. Even if Starlink and other satellite companies achieve their launch and capacity increase goals, it is estimated that by 2035, only about 8% of the U.S. population will be able to access competitive satellite broadband services. However, satellite internet has broad prospects for application in rural and remote areas where traditional telecom infrastructure is lacking, making satellite internet an effective supplementary tool.
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. points out that the rise of emerging satellite operators poses a significant competitive threat to existing satellite operators. In particular, European satellite operators such as Eutelsat and SES may face greater market pressure. These existing satellite operators need to accelerate their pace in technological upgrades, cost control, and market expansion to address the challenges posed by emerging satellite operators.
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. has given Eutelsat a "sell" rating, noting that Eutelsat's debt-to-equity ratio has climbed to 2.8:1 after its merger with OneWeb, reflecting the vulnerability of the traditional satellite business model in the LEO era.
Telecom operators face both opportunities and challenges
Facing the challenges of satellite communication, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. has given "buy" ratings to operators such as AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon.
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. believes that the threat of satellite internet to traditional telecom operators is limited, mainly due to capacity constraints of satellite operators. Even if Starlink and other satellite companies achieve their launch and capacity increase goals, it is estimated that by 2035, only about 8% of the U.S. population will be able to access competitive satellite broadband services. However, satellite internet has broad prospects for application in rural and remote areas where traditional telecom infrastructure is lacking, making satellite internet an effective supplementary tool.
As a leader in the satellite internet field, Starlink has established a network of around 7,000 LEO satellites globally and plans to launch more satellites in the coming years. Starlink has made significant progress in the consumer market and has also signed multiple wholesale agreements in the enterprise and government markets. For example, Starlink has partnered with T-Mobile to provide satellite broadband services, indicating a trend of integration between satellite internet and traditional telecom services.