Guolian Minsheng Securities: Express delivery leader announces January operating data, suggest focusing on leading stocks that have previously experienced overselling and have a stable fundamental base.

Guolian Minsheng Securities released a research report stating that leading listed express delivery companies have announced their main operating data for the express delivery business in January 2025. Currently, the valuation of the sector is at a historically low level, and it is recommended to pay attention to industry leaders with a strong fundamentals and a significant previous drop. In terms of individual stocks, the report recommends focusing on S.F. Holding (002352.SZ), which continues to strengthen its leading advantage in high-end and timely delivery services, has broad growth potential in international business, and is expected to see an increase in market share and strong profitability. It also suggests investing in ZTO Express (02057), which has strong resilience in profits, and STO Express Co., Ltd. (002468.SZ), which is leading in business volume growth during the expansion period and improving efficiency. The report also advises keeping an eye on YTO Express Group (600233.SH), known for its stable network and cost advantages, and YUNDA Holding Group (002120.SZ), which is expected to see growth in business volume and performance due to the recovery in business volume and increased capacity utilization. Key points of Guolian Minsheng Securities: National express delivery volume: industry prosperity on the rise, high growth rate in package volume maintained Since the beginning of 2025, the national express delivery volume has maintained a high growth rate. According to data from the State Post Bureau, as of the Spring Festival (January 14 to February 18), the national express collection volume was 15.549 billion packages, an increase of 29% compared to the same period in 2024; the express delivery volume was 15.969 billion packages, an increase of 31.1% year-on-year. During the Spring Festival holiday period (January 28 to February 4), the national express collection volume was 1.145 billion packages, an increase of 31% compared to the same period last year, and the express delivery volume was 782 million packages, up 26.7% year-on-year. Listed company business volume: Shentong surpasses, SF leading in package volume growth In January, SF/YTO/YUNDA/Shentong completed business volumes of 1.330/2.268/2.013/2.023 billion packages, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.95%, 5.46%, 2.86%, and 11.77% respectively. SF's business volume growth rate is leading, mainly due to the impact of the delayed Spring Festival in 2025, and the concentrated demand for gift delivery before and after the Spring Festival, benefiting the high-quality direct-operated express delivery brands. In terms of the express delivery sector, Shentong's growth rate is impressive, surpassing YUNDA in January. Listed company unit price per ticket: most express delivery companies show a month-on-month increase in prices In January, the unit prices per ticket for SF/YTO/YUNDA/Shentong were 15.61/2.35/2.02/2.06 yuan, with year-on-year changes of -8.18%, -3.76%, -11.01%, and -5.94% respectively, and month-on-month changes of +7.29%, +2.62%, -0.49%, and +1.98% respectively. SF's month-on-month increase in unit price per ticket leads, mainly affected by factors such as the structure and weight of the goods. With the exception of YUNDA, the prices of e-commerce express delivery services mostly show a slight month-on-month increase. Risk warning: macroeconomic recovery falling short of expectations; price competition in the express delivery industry exceeding expectations.