Sinolink: Antimony, photovoltaic installation rush + export repair + import weakened, strongly bullish on price hikes.

Sinolink released a research report stating that with the expectation of exports gradually recovering to a high level, combined with the possibility of a surge in photovoltaic installations, domestic and foreign demand resonating could drive a rapid increase in antimony demand. Additionally, the sustained high premium overseas is expected to significantly reduce domestic antimony ore imports, and the upward trend in antimony prices is expected to be gradually established. The price of photovoltaic glass may increase, potentially further opening up the price space for antimony ingots. As antimony is difficult for glass manufacturers to accumulate inventory, the industry is strongly bullish on the rise in antimony prices. It is recommended to focus on Guangxi Huaxi Nonferrous Metal (600301.SH) and Hunan Gold Corporation (002155.SZ). Event: According to BaiChuan Yingfu, on February 24th, the domestic antimony ingot price was 146,000 yuan/ton, with weekly/monthly increases of 3%/4%; the overseas price was $49,600/ton, with weekly/monthly increases of 2%/14%. Sinolink's main viewpoints are as follows: Photovoltaics are expected to surge, with continued domestic demand. On February 9th, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice on deepening the marketization reform of new energy on-grid electricity prices, promoting high-quality development of new energy. The notice stated that for incremental projects commissioned on or after June 1, 2025, the mechanism of electricity volume scale included will be dynamically adjusted based on the completion of various local new energy development targets set by the country, and the mechanism electricity prices will be determined by various regions through market-based bidding. According to the North Star CECEP Solar Energy Photovoltaic Network, the profit calculation model will undergo significant changes after projects are connected to the grid on June 1. Following the issuance of the document, it is still unclear how the actual settlement price of projects will be calculated. Considering the operational difficulties, completing projects and getting them connected to the grid before June 1st is safer and more prudent, leading to another surge in photovoltaic installations. Antimony, as a clarifying agent in photovoltaic glass, is the best choice, and is expected to benefit from the increase in production; with smelters facing a shortage of raw materials, glass manufacturers will be unable to build up stocks, and a potential glass price increase in the industry could provide space for antimony prices to rise. Foreign demand continues to recover, and the price turning point has arrived. After the export suspension in October 2024, exports in November and December have recovered to 25%/46% of pre-control levels, with major export destinations being Southeast Asia and Africa. As the overseas antimony supply chain is being restructured, it is believed that a new balance mechanism established overseas will help repair the price difference between domestic and foreign antimony markets. With other regions gradually opening up exports, domestic antimony metal supply is expected to return to a shortage stage. Weakness in imports is beginning to materialize. Since the export control began, the price difference between domestic and foreign markets has gradually widened. However, due to the strong bargaining power of domestic smelters and overseas miners, as well as long-term agreements between them, imports remained at relatively high levels until December 2024. Starting in January of this year, long-term orders began to gradually fulfill, with overseas ore imports returning to market pricing. The high premium overseas has significantly reduced the economic feasibility of imports, leading to a decline in import volumes, causing a substantial shortage of raw materials and further boosting prices. Inventory remains at historically low levels. As of late February, domestic antimony ingot and antimony trioxide inventories were 37,000 tons and 62,000 tons respectively, with a 60-day increase of -3.4%/-1.9% and a 90-day increase of -7.4%/-3.3%. Despite a decline in both domestic and foreign demand in the fourth quarter of 2024, mainstream antimony products in the domestic market did not show significant inventory accumulation, indicating that the shortage of antimony raw materials has not improved. Inventories remain at historically low levels. Overseas major mines are expected to reduce production, and the supply-demand gap continues to widen. According to Asian Metal, with the decline in gold-antimony ore production in Russia, the import volume of Russian gold-antimony ore in 2025 is expected to significantly decrease. Additionally, overseas prices have a higher premium compared to domestic prices, leading to lower economic feasibility for imports. Risk Warning New mine output exceeds expectations; demand falls short of expectations; antimony flame retardant substitutes exceed expectations.