OPEC+ hesitates, Bank of America predicts: Will resume some crude oil production in April.

Jason Prior, the oil trading director at Bank of America, stated that OPEC+ is expected to resume some of the reduced crude oil production in April, following President Trump's call for lower oil prices. Prior said on Monday, "We anticipate some volumes being brought back to the market." He mentioned that OPEC+ led by Saudi Arabia and Russia may start restoring around 150,000 barrels per day of crude oil production from April. It is worth noting that last week's reports indicated that OPEC+ is considering delaying its planned increase in production set to begin in April. This would be the fourth time OPEC+ has postponed the plan to restore production. OPEC+ first announced a gradual production recovery plan in June last year, but due to slowing crude oil demand growth and increased new supply in the Americas, the organization has been forced to delay the production increase plan three times. The current goal of the organization is to gradually restore 2.2 million barrels per day of production by the end of 2026. One representative stated that the global crude oil market is currently too fragile to resume production. Another representative mentioned that no decision has been made yet, and there are disagreements on how to proceed with the production increase plan. A final decision may be made in the coming weeks. For OPEC+, it faces a tricky dilemma: whether to start relaxing production limits even if the short-term crude oil demand situation is unlikely to improve? Restoring production in a well-supplied market may lead to a sharp drop in oil prices. Delaying the production increase again could help maintain price stability, but it also risks losing market control and puts economic pressure on oil-producing countries, possibly angering President Trump. Trump has been urging OPEC+ to lower oil prices. Additionally, talks between Trump and Russian President Putin, as well as subsequent bilateral talks between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, have sparked speculation about a possible ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the potential relaxation of U.S. sanctions on Russia's large-scale oil production. However, Goldman Sachs recently reiterated its view that even if a peace agreement is reached between Russia and Ukraine, easing U.S. sanctions on Russia would not lead to a significant increase in Russia's oil supply to the global market. Goldman Sachs pointed out that the main factor limiting Russian oil production is compliance with the OPEC+ production cut agreement, not the impact of sanctions; furthermore, the current sanctions primarily change the direction of Russian oil exports rather than the total export volume. Based on the above situation, Goldman Sachs further stated that due to increased compliance by Russia and some other OPEC+ oil-producing countries with the OPEC+ targets, and ongoing uncertainty in U.S. policy, OPEC+ may postpone its planned gradual increase in oil production set to begin in April this year until July.