Huachuang Securities: The price of new photovoltaic glass single panels is expected to rise, and the recognition of BC products continues to increase.

Huachuang Securities released a research report stating that there is currently no cold maintenance for photovoltaic glass in February, and the overall supply side is stable; after March, the peak season demand for rush installation will resonate, and production at all links is expected to see a significant improvement month-on-month. According to SMM's forecast, module production in March will exceed 50GW. It is expected that the inventory of photovoltaic glass will further decrease, with an expectation of price increase for new orders, which may drive profit recovery. It is worth mentioning that since 2024, in the component joint procurement carried out by the five major power generation groups, BC sections have been set for all, and in January 2025, the bidding for the photovoltaic component framework procurement for 2025-2026 by Datang Group included estimates of 19.5/2/1GW for TOPCon, HJT, and BC respectively. Compared to the cancellation of PERC products in the 2024 component joint procurement, the addition of efficient BC products signifies the continuous increase in market recognition for BC. Regarding Huachuang Securities' main points: Photovoltaic glass prices are operating at low levels, with a turning point in inventory approaching. According to Sublime China Information, this week's 3.2mm coated photovoltaic glass is priced at 19.25 yuan/m2, unchanged from the previous week; 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass panels are priced at 12.00 yuan/m2, also unchanged from the previous week. As of this Thursday, the industry's inventory turnover days are approximately 37.2 days, a decrease of 2.1 days compared to the previous week, or a 5.3% decrease. There is currently no cold maintenance for photovoltaic glass in February, and the overall supply side is stable. According to Sublime China Information, since 2025, there has only been cold maintenance of 3700t/d of photovoltaic glass capacity in January. In February 2025, downstream purchases of photovoltaic glass have been actively transacted positively, and according to SMM data, February's photovoltaic glass production has remained at over 40GW, with an overall tight balance expected in the first quarter. With expectations of improved demand month-on-month, new prices for photovoltaic glass in March are expected to increase. With the peak season demand for rush installation after March, production at all links is expected to see a significant improvement month-on-month. According to SMM's forecast, module production in March is expected to exceed 50GW. The inventory of photovoltaic glass is expected to further decrease, with an expectation of price increase for new orders, which may drive profit recovery. BC products show excellent empirical results. According to a global photovoltaic public account, the latest data from a commercial building rooftop empirical project in Kunming, Yunnan, compared the power generation capabilities of BC, TOPCon, and HJT technologies. The empirical data covers the period from November 24 to early February 25. With the same unit area, Longi's BC second-generation product's actual power generation capacity is 6.67% higher than TOPCon and 7.54% higher than HJT; in terms of power generation per watt, Longi's BC second-generation product's power generation is 3.6% higher than TOPCon and 4.5% higher than HJT. Recognition for BC products continues to increase, accelerating industrialization. Since 2024, BC sections have been set by the five major power generation groups in the component joint procurement carried out by them. In January 2025, the bidding for the photovoltaic component framework procurement for 2025-2026 by Datang Group included estimates of 19.5/2/1GW for TOPCon, HJT, and BC respectively. Compared to the cancellation of PERC products in the 2024 component joint procurement, the addition of efficient BC products signifies the continuous increase in market recognition for BC. According to current plans, by the end of 2025, LONGi Green Energy Technology's HPBC2.0 battery capacity is expected to reach 50GW, and Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy's ABC component capacity is expected to reach 35GW. With continuous breakthroughs in BC efficiency and acceleration of industrialization, attention is recommended on related BC industrial chain targets. Prices of the photovoltaic industry chain: (1) Primary material links: According to InfoLinkConsulting, this week's average price for polysilicon dense material/granules is 39.0/37.0 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week/+2.8%. The average price for 182-183.75mm/210mm monocrystalline P-type silicon wafers is 1.15/1.70 yuan/piece, unchanged from the previous week/unchanged; the average price for 182-183.75mm/182*210mm/210mm monocrystalline N-type silicon wafers is 1.18/1.30/1.55 yuan/piece, unchanged from the previous week/unchanged/unchanged. The average price of 182-183.75mm/210mm monocrystalline PERC cell wafers is 0.330/0.280 yuan/W, unchanged from the previous week. The price of 182-183.75mm/182*210mm/210mm TOPCon cell wafers is 0.290/0.285/0.295 yuan/W, unchanged from the previous week/+1.8%/unchanged. The price of 182*182-210mm/210mm double-sided double-glass PERC modules is 0.65/0.66 yuan/W, unchanged from the previous week. This week's price for 182-183.75mm TOPCon double-glass modules is 0.69 yuan/W, unchanged from the previous week; 210mm HJT double-glass module prices are 0.85 yuan/W, unchanged from the previous week. (2) Auxiliary material links: This week's price for 3.2mm coated photovoltaic glass is 19.25 yuan/m2, unchanged from the previous week; the price for 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass panels is 12 yuan/m2, unchanged from the previous week. According to Sobi Consulting, this week's prices for transparent EVA film are 5.89 yuan/m2, unchanged from the previous week; white EVA film prices are 6.42 yuan/m2, unchanged from the previous week; POE film prices are 8.28 yuan/m2, unchanged from the previous week. Investment advice: (1) With improvements in supply and demand and expectations of policy regulation, it is recommended to focus on leading companies in silicon materials, integrated components, and auxiliary materials that are expected to improve profitability. Recommended companies to watch: For silicon materials, Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH), GCL TECH (03800), Xinjiang Daqo New Energy (688303.SH); for integrated components, Longi Co., Ltd. (601012.SH), Jinko Solar (688223.SH), JA Solar Technology (002459.SZ), TriSolar Co., Ltd.(688599.SH), CSI Solar Co., Ltd.(688472.SH); leading accessory materials companies, Hangzhou First Applied Material(603806.SH), Flat Glass Group(601865.SH), XINYI SOLAR(00968), etc.(2) With the leading layout of new technologies, there is potential for coordinated growth. Suggestions for attention: related to BC production, Longji shares (601012.SH), Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy (600732.SH), Wuhan DR Laser Technology Corp., (300776.SZ), Suzhou YourBest New-type Materials (301266.SZ), Jiangsu Kuangshun Photosensitivity New-Material Stock (300537.SZ), etc.; Silver-less/low-silver paste technology, Changzhou Fusion New Material (688503.SH), Wuxi Dk Electronic Materials Co., Ltd. (300842.SZ). (3) Benefitting from the outbreak of demand in emerging markets and the layout of inverters and brackets in high-profit areas. Suggestions for attention: inverter segment, Ningbo Deye Technology (605117.SH), Sungrow Power Supply (300274.SZ), SolaX Power Network Technology (688708.SH), Sineng Electric (300827.SZ); bracket segment, Arctech Solar Holding (688408.SH), Wenzhou Yihua Connector (002897.SZ). Risk warning: End demand lower than expected, intensified market competition, fluctuations in upstream raw material prices, trade friction factors, changes in industry policies, etc.