Goldman Sachs: Maintains "buy" rating on LI AUTO-W (02015) and raises target price to 137 Hong Kong dollars.

Goldman Sachs released a research report stating that it maintains a "buy" rating on LI AUTO-W (02015), with the target price raised from HK$131 to HK$137. Ideal Car delivered 159,000 new energy passenger vehicles in the fourth quarter of last year, a year-on-year increase of 20% and a quarterly increase of 4%. However, due to a lack of new models, the company's market share in the mainland's new energy vehicle retail market decreased from 5% in the third quarter of 2024 to 4.1%. The bank raised its 2024 net profit forecast for the company by 10% based on better cost management, but lowered its net profit forecast for the current and next two years by 4% to 6% due to lower sales delivery volume. The bank expects the company's total revenue for the fourth quarter to be RMB 44 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5% and a quarterly increase of 2%. Among them, automotive income is expected to increase by 4% to RMB 42 billion; the average selling price is expected to decrease by 13% to RMB 266,000. The total gross profit for the period is estimated to be RMB 9.6 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2%; the gross profit margin is 22%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.5 percentage points. As for automotive gross profit, it is expected to be RMB 9 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2%; the automotive gross profit margin is 21.3%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4 percentage points. In addition, EBIT is expected to increase by 15% to RMB 3.5 billion; EBIT profit margin is 8%, and non-GAAP net profit is expected to decrease by 11% to RMB 4 billion, with a net profit margin of 9.1%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6 percentage points.