TrendForce: It is expected that the global LED lighting market will resume positive growth and reach 566.26 billion US dollars by 2025.

TrendForce Consultancy reported that in 2024, the general LED lighting market was negatively affected by a downturn in major market demand, resulting in a decrease in market value and a overall decline in revenue for the top lighting companies in the industry. However, the LED smart lighting and niche LED plant lighting markets showed contrary growth trends. Looking ahead to 2025, with a slight improvement in the global economic situation, the demand for LED lighting products with high quality, healthy, comfortable lighting, and smart lighting features is expected to drive the recovery of market value. TrendForce predicts that the global LED lighting market will recover to $56.626 billion in 2025. The LED plant lighting market is expected to enter the next growth phase with the development of vertical farms. General Lighting Market In 2024, the Federal Reserve maintained a high interest rate, weakening market demand in China, the European economy continued to be weak due to geopolitical factors, and Japan was affected by the devaluation of the yen. The market size measured in US dollars also shrank. The main markets of the United States, Europe, and China, which have historically been the sources of demand for the lighting market, all faced pressure in 2024, affecting the overall LED lighting market value. However, with a slight improvement in market demand in Q4 2024, and accelerated penetration of LEDs, the decline in market value narrowed slightly. In 2024, the LED lighting market value decreased by 4.2% to $560.58 billion. Looking ahead to 2025, it is expected that with a slight improvement in the global economic situation, the construction industry closely related to the LED lighting industry will show signs of moderate recovery. New installations, renovations, and slow improvements in public infrastructure projects, including municipal sports fields, will contribute positively to the LED lighting industry, especially with the demand for replacement of existing products with LED in renovation projects, as well as the increasing demand for high-quality, healthy, comfortable lighting and smart lighting products. However, with adjustments in the global supply chain layout, global capacity remains in an expansion state, and competition is expected to intensify further. In some regions in 2025, LED lighting may be included in trade policy adjustments, and related measures may suppress demand for LED lighting. Overall, TrendForce estimates that the global LED lighting market will recover positively to $56.626 billion in 2025. From the perspective of LED lighting products, TrendForce believes that with increased investment in infrastructure, municipal sports, entertainment, and the increasing number of electric vehicle charging installations, there will be opportunities to redesign outdoor lighting, leading to continued growth in outdoor lighting products including LED street lights, LED floodlights, and LED parking lot lights. In the medium to long term, it is expected that after 2026, residential and non-residential construction markets, including healthcare, new manufacturing, and infrastructure sectors, and activities promoting sustainability such as carbon reduction, will drive significant growth in the LED lighting industry in 2026. It should be noted that changes in the international trade environment may have a certain impact on market demand. Therefore, TrendForce maintains a cautious and optimistic attitude towards the future market, estimating that the market size will reach $63.903 billion in 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 2.7% from 2024 to 2029. Smart Lighting Market In 2024, due to the demand for energy-saving, LED lighting products that can achieve dimming and color adjustment, as well as those equipped with smart control systems, increased. TrendForce's latest data shows that the global smart lighting market size grew by 17.6% in 2024. In terms of application, the growth of the IoT lighting market is being driven by a decrease in the cost of smart lighting products and the increasing demand for energy efficiency in the professional lighting market (including commercial, outdoor, and industrial sectors), particularly in the outdoor and industrial lighting sectors. Looking ahead to 2025, an improvement in consumer market demand is expected, leading to a rebound in the smart home lighting market, with smart home lighting products covering various types such as light bulbs, filament lamps, and ceiling lamps. In addition, spotlights, downlights, and light strip products are gradually penetrating the smart home lighting market and experiencing rapid growth. Plant Lighting Market TrendForce's latest data shows that the global LED plant lighting market reached $1.315 billion in 2024, an increase of 6.6% year-on-year. According to TrendForce's analysis, this recovery is not just a simple downstream replenishment demand but a real demand recovery with a certain degree of sustainability. Looking ahead to 2025, driven by a new round of lighting replacements, an increase in demand is expected to be stimulated by a shift towards products with higher photosynthetic photon flux (PPF) and photosynthetic photon efficiency (PPE) as well as controllable multi-channel products. In addition, LEDs will continue to penetrate the market to replace traditional high-energy-consuming products. Regions such as Asia, the Middle East, North America, and Europe are making significant investments in vertical farming, cultivating a variety of species towards high-value crops, along with input from research institutions, is expected to drive rapid growth in the LED plant lighting market.