Zhongjin: Improved supply and demand expected to narrow the price difference between domestic and international markets, domestic antimony prices on the rise.

CICC released a research report stating that, according to Asian Metal and Baichuan Yingfu data, as of February 14th, domestic antimony ingot was priced at 141,000 yuan per ton, up 2% from before the Spring Festival; MB antimony ingot averaged 47,000 US dollars per ton, up 5% from before the Spring Festival. Since February, the improvement in exports combined with the peak season approaching has boosted overall demand, while the contraction in imports has suppressed domestic antimony ingot production, initiating the second round of price increases for domestic antimony. CICC's main points are as follows: The recovery of downstream demand, combined with improved exports, is expected to boost overall demand. Firstly, the implementation of the replacement of old with new policies and the gradual entry into the peak season for the procurement of upstream raw materials in areas such as household appliances are expected to drive growth in the use of antimony in flame retardants as traditional demand recovers. Secondly, the slowdown in the cold repair speed of photovoltaic glass production lines, after achieving industry production reduction targets, is expected to stabilize daily melting output of photovoltaic glass with the increase in operating rates of downstream component manufacturers in March. The demand for sodium antimonate in photovoltaic glass is expected to gradually recover. Thirdly, according to customs data, in November and December of 2024, China exported 776 and 1571 tons of antimony trioxide, up by 1748% and 102% compared to the previous months respectively, returning to around 50% of the average monthly level before export controls were imposed in the previous three years. The high price difference between domestic and foreign markets raises the cost of imported ore, leading to a reduction in imported ore that suppresses domestic antimony ingot production, causing the domestic antimony industry to enter a period of de-stocking and price increases. According to customs data, in December 2024, China imported 2141 metric tons of antimony ore from overseas, down by 63% compared to the previous month. According to Asian Metal, in January, China's antimony ingot production was 3650 tons, down by 48% month-on-month and 18% year-on-year; domestic smelters' antimony ingot inventory was 1400 tons, down by 7%, reaching historically low levels. With the improvement in exports and the arrival of the peak purchasing season downstream, the shrinking of imported ore leads to a reduction in domestic smelting raw materials. Against the backdrop of a tight domestic supply of ore and historically low levels of antimony ingot inventory, domestic antimony prices are expected to experience a second round of increases. In the long term, the tight global supply and demand situation for antimony is expected to continue, with the central price of antimony expected to rise. Benefiting from the continuous growth in new photovoltaic installations and the increasing penetration of double-glass components in photovoltaics, the demand for antimony in photovoltaic glass is expected to continue growing. The implementation of replacement of old with new policies is expected to drive demand growth for electrical equipment and other products, thereby boosting the use of antimony in the flame retardant sector. Against the background of a rigid global supply of antimony ore, it is forecasted that the antimony supply-demand gap from 2024 to 2027 will be -0.9, -1.3, -1, -1.4 thousand tons, accounting for -6%, -8%, -6%, -9% of demand respectively. The supply-demand balance may continue to be tight, with the central price of antimony expected to rise. Risk: Overseas supply exceeds expectations, export improvement is lower than expected, and downstream demand for antimony is replaced to a greater extent than expected.