Cui Dongshu: Commercial vehicle domestic insurance sales in January decreased by 14% year-on-year, performance was relatively weak.

The Secretary-General of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, Cui Dongshu, stated that according to the data from the National Financial Bureau, the data for commercial vehicle compulsory insurance in China experienced strong growth before 2021 and entered a phase of slow growth in the past two years. Due to the complex interference of the Spring Festival factors, the domestic commercial vehicle compulsory insurance performance in January this year was temporarily lackluster. With the promotion of national subsidies, the sales of electric buses and other commercial vehicles in certain sub-markets in January surged due to new energy subsidies. By 2024, the domestic insurance for commercial vehicles reached 2.85 million units, almost flat year-on-year; in January 2025, domestic sales of commercial vehicles reached 160,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 14% and a decrease of 42% compared to December 2024. In recent years, the export market for fuel vehicles in commercial vehicles has experienced explosive growth, while domestic sales of fuel vehicles have plummeted, resulting in a huge contrast in domestic and foreign demand trends under policy distortions. In 2024, the sales of new energy commercial vehicles reached 579,000 units, an 84% year-on-year increase; in January 2025, it reached 30,500 units, a 24% year-on-year increase and a 62% decrease compared to the previous month. The penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles in January 2025 was 19%, with a penetration rate of 13% for trucks and 51% for buses, showing a significant increase compared to the same period. The domestic market of new energy commercial vehicles has shown relatively strong performance under policy promotion, with strong exports of fuel vehicles, forming a characteristic market pattern under policy distortions, and traditional fuel vehicles needing effective policy support. 1. Analysis of national commercial vehicle market compulsory insurance data In recent years, the domestic commercial vehicle market has shown a rapid decline in demand. From the high sales in 2020 to the peak decline in 2021, and the low point in 2022-2023, the domestic insurance for commercial vehicles reached 2.85 million units in 2024, almost flat year-on-year; in January 2025, domestic sales of commercial vehicles reached 160,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 14% and a decrease of 42% compared to December 2024. The commercial vehicle market in 2024 showed a relatively stable overall trend, with strong sales in the fourth quarter due to the promotion of subsidy updates at the end of the year, leading to large fluctuations in monthly data. Commercial vehicle sales in January this year were 164,000 units, reaching a low level of sales in recent years. The comprehensive inventory increase in 2023 should reach 420,000 units, reaching a historical high. The remaining inventory of manufacturers' sales-insurance-exports in 2024 was 93,000 units, a decrease from the previous year. The inventory in the first half of 2024 increased significantly, while in the second half of the year, there was a continued decrease in inventory. In July, it decreased by 21,100 units, in August by 27,700 units, in September by 38,400 units, in October by 8,000 units, in November by 16,000 units, and in December by 8,500 units, gradually easing the inventory pressure in the commercial vehicle market. 2. Analysis of sales of national commercial vehicle market by Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation In 2024, the sales of new energy commercial vehicles reached 579,000 units, an 84% year-on-year increase; in January 2025, it reached 30,500 units, a 24% year-on-year increase and a 62% decrease compared to the previous month. After the policy tailing at the end of 2024, the performance of new energy vehicles in early 2025 was relatively weak, showing a temporary adjustment after the withdrawal of subsidies, but still achieving year-on-year growth. In 2023, the overall performance of new energy commercial vehicles showed a low level in the first 4 months due to the withdrawal of subsidies, followed by strong growth from May to December. The months of January and February 2024 returned to normal monthly trends, and the post-holiday start from March onwards also showed rapid growth, especially in the fourth quarter, with continuous high sales of new energy vehicles, demonstrating good performance. The sales of new energy vehicles in January 2025 remained at a high level. 3. Penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles In 2024, the penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles in commercial vehicles reached 20%, showing a good increase compared to 2023. In January, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 19%, a 6 percentage point increase compared to January last year, showing relatively strong performance. From 2019 to 2021, the overall penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles was around 3%, reaching 9% in 2022, 11% in 2023, and a good penetration rate of 20% throughout 2024, reflecting the strong growth trend of new energy commercial vehicles. In January 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in commercial vehicles reached 19%, with a penetration rate of 13% for trucks and 51% for buses, showing a significant increase compared to the same period. The penetration rate of electric vehicles in heavy trucks and buses has increased significantly. 4. Analysis of changes in the commercial vehicle market The structure of trucks and buses in commercial vehicles is relatively stable. Light trucks perform well in trucks, while heavy trucks have shown an improvement in their trend after a deep adjustment last year, with some effects from the scrap-and-renew policy. In buses, the trend of light buses is average, with the electrification bringing light buses to replace microbuses as the market's main force. Large and medium-sized buses showed strong performance in early 2025, with stable trends in fuel-powered large and medium-sized buses. 5. Analysis of the energy structure of commercial vehicles The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in commercial vehicles is generally low, with little market presence of plug-in hybrids and good performance of pure electric vehicles. In the early part of 2024, the sales of large buses fueled by gasoline experienced a significant rebound, reflecting a return to the demand for fuel-powered vehicles in the post-subsidy era. The demand for new energy vehicles in January this year has increased, with more estimates of purchases of pure electric buses in various regions. Hydrogen-powered commercial vehicles rely on subsidies to boost sales, with only high subsidies for large buses, but overall, the performance of hydrogen-powered vehicles is average. The electrification of commercial vehicles is performing well, with products such as extended-range vehicles still exploring and not yet showing significant sales. 6. Analysis of changes in the competitive structure of commercial vehicles Light trucks are the mainstay of commercial vehicle companies, with Foton and Wuling being the main players in the commercial vehicle market, showing strong sales in light trucks and buses respectively. Sinotruk Jinan Truck is also strong in light trucks. 7. Regional market structure of medium and heavy trucks Overall, medium and heavy trucks have a higher market share in North China, Northwest China, Southwest China, and the Central Yangtze River region, but the market share in Northwest China in January was unusually high. The penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks in regions such as the Central Yellow River, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, and Southwest China has been good, with a rapid increase in the penetration rate in the Central Yellow River region in particular.Among the heavy-duty truck enterprises such as Dongfeng and FAW, the overall performance of heavy trucks is relatively stable. Some second-line heavy truck companies like Xugong have seen an increase in the penetration rate of electric vehicles. In December last year, Jiefang had a strong final sprint, with a higher proportion of new energy vehicles. However, in January this year, the sales were temporarily lower.8. Regional Market Structure of Light Trucks The light truck market mainly has a higher market share in the eastern regions such as North China and Southwest, but the performance of light trucks in the Northwest region is gradually strengthening. The main market for new energy light trucks is still relatively strong in the eastern and southern markets, while the overall market in Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai has shown some recovery this year. The main manufacturers of domestic light trucks are still Beiqi Foton, SAIC-GM Wuling, Sinotruk Jinan Truck, Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp., Ltd., and Dongfeng Motor, among others. In particular, recently, companies like Wuling and Chang'an have gradually improved their performance in the small and medium-sized light truck market. The main players in the new energy light truck market are companies like GEELY AUTO, especially GEELY AUTO has shown outstanding performance in the new energy light truck market in the past two years. 9. Regional Market Structure of Light Passenger Vehicles The sales areas of the domestic light passenger vehicle market are mainly in the economically developed regions of East China and South China. The market share in North China and Southwest regions is also relatively high. The demand for new energy light passenger vehicles is mainly in developed regions, with strong performance in the South China region. Due to road permit policies, the sales volume of fuel-powered light passenger vehicles in Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai has declined. The major manufacturers of light passenger vehicles are mainly Jiangling Motors Corporation, SAIC Maxus, SAIC-GM Wuling, Chongqing Changan Automobile, Beiqi Foton, and Geely Commercial vehicles, among others, with emerging forces like Geely Commercial Vehicles and Guizhou Changjiang showing strong performance in the new energy light passenger vehicle segment. Recently, Wuling has finally launched its electric light passenger vehicle, which is quite competitive. 10. Regional Market Structure of Large and Medium-Sized Passenger Vehicles The market for large and medium-sized passenger vehicles has shown strong performance recently, with significant fluctuations in market demands between regions. Policy subsidies and market momentum have led to differentiation in the policy stimulation of new energy vehicles and the demand for fuel-powered vehicles in the large and medium passenger vehicle market. There was a sudden increase in new energy buses in the Northwest and North China regions at the beginning of the year. The performance in the East China region was relatively poor. Overall, the performance in the Central and Western regions was good. High penetration of new energy large and medium-sized passenger vehicles is mainly seen in the East-East, Central-Yangtze River, South China markets, and Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai. The performance in other regions depends on policy subsidies and the early start of public transportation in the Northwest and North China this year. The main manufacturers of large and medium-sized passenger vehicles are Yutong, Golden Dragon, and other companies performing relatively well, especially in traditional fuel-powered vehicles. Companies like Beiqi Foton also have relatively good performance. The high penetration rate of new energy large and medium-sized passenger vehicles is mainly seen in second-tier companies, with companies like Zhongche Era Passenger Vehicles performing well in January of this year. The main companies are all actively developing new energy vehicles alongside traditional fuel-powered vehicles, with a good market for traditional fuel-powered vehicles as well.