Morgan Stanley maintains "overweight" rating on AIA (01299) with a slightly lowered target price of HK$91.

Morgan Stanley released a research report saying that, based on fixed exchange rates, it is expected that AIA (01299) will record a 20% year-on-year increase in new business value for the whole year last year, which is satisfactory; after-tax operating profit (OPAT) and embedded value (EV) are expected to see healthy increases of 8% and 7% respectively. Morgan Stanley views the performance of new business value and shareholder returns as the main factors for this stock this year. The bank listed AIA as its top pick, with a target price slightly lowered from HK$92 to HK$91 and a "Hold" rating. The bank pointed out that the company completed its buyback plan on February 11, having repurchased $12 billion in shares over the past three years. Management will announce a new buyback plan at the upcoming annual report release next month, estimating a minimum buyback size of $2 billion under a base case scenario. The bank estimates that the company can continue to achieve strong growth in new business value in 2025 and 2026, with expected growth rates of 12.9% and 12.8% respectively. The overall shareholder return is expected to exceed 8% for the whole of last year, with increased shareholder returns seen as one of the main catalysts.