Middle Finger Research Institute: Many regions in Guangdong have announced the implementation of land acquisition policies, with a total planned land purchase price exceeding 35 billion yuan.

Since the beginning of this year, some cities have released solicitations for the acquisition of idle stock land. Multiple regions in Guangdong Province have publicized the first batch of specific projects and prices for the acquisition of stock land using special bonds, and policies are entering the implementation phase. According to incomplete statistics from the China Index Research Institute, as of February 11th, cities such as Foshan, Huizhou, Zhuhai, Zhongshan, and Jiangmen have announced a total of over 160 land plots, with a total land area of over 6.8 million square meters and a total planned acquisition price exceeding 35 billion yuan. Among them, Huizhou has a planned acquisition price exceeding 12 billion yuan, ranking first; Zhuhai has a planned acquisition price of 6.65 billion yuan, ranking second. The team predicts that more cities will follow Guangdong Province's practices, issuing detailed operational guidelines or guidance, and providing more policy support for land adjustment and land replacement to overcome barriers in cross-regional land replacement. 01 Policy Summary In 2024, the central government and regulatory departments continued to introduce policies to revitalize idle stock land. In June, the Ministry of Natural Resources put forward 18 measures for disposing of idle stock land. In October, the Ministry of Finance clarified the use of special bonds to purchase idle stock land, and since November, more complementary policies have been implemented. Specifically: In May 2024, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the Ministry of Natural Resources proposed properly disposing of idle land and activating stock land. They allowed companies to adjust planning conditions and design requirements reasonably and supported local authorities in reclaiming land at a fair price. In June 2024, the Ministry of Natural Resources and the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice on the Implementation of Several Policy Measures for Properly Handling Idle Stock Land" (Natural Resource Development [2024] No. 104), which outlined 18 measures for disposing of idle stock land. In October 2024, the Ministry of Finance explicitly allowed the use of special bonds to recover idle stock land. In November 2024, the Ministry of Natural Resources issued the "Notice on the Use of Local Government Special Bond Funds for Repurchasing and Purchasing Idle Stock Land" (Natural Resource Development [2024] No. 242), requiring local governments to actively use local government special bond funds to increase the repurchase and acquisition of idle stock land. It also specified detailed guidelines for the use of special bond funds to purchase stock land, including the scope of repurchase, repurchase prices, and principles of re-supply, to guide local governments in implementing specific policies. In December 2024, the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Optimizing and Improving the Management Mechanism of Local Government Special Bonds" (State Council General Office [2024] No. 52), which explicitly supported cities in reclaiming eligible idle stock land and further expanding the application of local government special bonds, providing a basis for supporting the reclamation of stock land with special bonds. In January 2025, the Ministry of Finance stated in a press conference that "within the new issuance quota of special bonds in 2025, local authorities can arrange for special bond projects for land reserves and repurchase of stock commercial housing for affordable housing as needed," and also indicated that "the relevant requirements for special bond management have been clarified, and local authorities can proceed accordingly." 02 Latest Developments According to monitoring by the China Index, at the end of 2024, local governments actively surveyed the scale of idle stock land. Some regions have issued public solicitations for the repurchase and acquisition of idle stock land. In January 2025, Huzhou repurchased four plots of land from Jinmao for 781 million yuan and planned to use special bonds to pay compensation. In addition, Guangdong Province has formulated the "Guidelines for Local Government Special Bonds for Land Reserve Areas (Trial Implementation)" to accelerate the repurchase of idle stock land in various regions within the province. According to monitoring data, multiple regions in Guangdong Province (not limited to the city level, including subordinate districts, cities, and counties) have announced the project and repurchase prices for the first batch of land reserve special bond applications for repurchasing idle stock land in 2025. Table: First batch of planned acquisitions using special bonds to purchase stock land in some cities in Guangdong Province as of February 11th Data source: Official websites of natural resources bureaus in various regions, China Index data CREIS Matching these land plots with land transaction data in the China Index database, there are several main points: From a basic information perspective, firstly, the types of land plots in the public notices are diverse, including residential, commercial, industrial, and other types of land, with residential land accounting for over 50%, commercial land accounting for over 30%, and industrial land accounting for over 10%. Secondly, the transactions for the land plots mainly occurred from 2020 to 2024, accounting for over 80%, with the majority of plots transacted between 2021-2023; land plots from 2012-2017 accounted for around 15%. Thirdly, the land plots were purchased by local state-owned enterprises, central enterprises, and private enterprises, with the majority being local state-owned enterprises, and some plots from companies such as Poly, China Resources, Overseas Chinese City, and Huafa were included in the list. In terms of acquisition prices, according to document No. 242 from the Ministry of Natural Resources, the acquisition price is based on the market assessment price and the cost to acquire land by enterprises. This price is determined based on the lower of the two and then adjusted based on market conditions and other factors. The planned acquisition prices in various regions in Guangdong Province are also based on a comprehensive consideration of market assessment prices and land transaction prices. For example, for a plot in Shatian Town, Dongguan, the planned acquisition price was determined based on the lower of the transaction price and the assessment price. Table: Details of a plot in Shatian Town, Dongguan, planned for first batch of repurchase Data source: Government website In most cities, the land plots in the public notices were transacted without a premium, and the planned acquisition prices were generally in line with the transaction prices at the time of sale. Around 70% of the plots had a planned acquisition price-to-transaction price ratio between 0.8-1.0, with over 40% falling between 0.9-1.0, and about 13% between 0.7-0.8. Some plots had a significant discount on the planned acquisition price. Looking at different years, the ratio of planned acquisition prices to transaction prices in 2020-2023 was around 0.9, it was 0.96 in 2024, and in 2018-2019 the ratio was between 0.7-0.8. The ratios for plots from earlier years were relatively higher, and this ratio range may provide important references for other regions. 03 Policy Trends The progress in implementing the use of special bonds for the acquisition of stock land by most cities still needs to be expedited. There are still challenges in local governments acquiring stock land.Multiple difficulties were identified through research, including unclear special bond quotas, complex adjustment procedures, and difficulties in coordinating land replacement benefits, which have led to a lack of enthusiasm among some local governments to participate. Low acquisition prices, difficulties in coordinating between government and enterprises, low willingness of enterprises to participate, and the fact that current acquisition targets are mainly local state-owned enterprises also make it difficult to mobilize the enthusiasm of other types of enterprises.The acquisition of idle inventory land through special bonds is beneficial for improving the market supply-demand relationship, promoting the real estate market to enter a new cycle, and is also a key measure to promote real estate development investment and stabilize the start of new projects by 2025. Clearing up various barriers to land acquisition and speeding up the pace of land acquisition may become an important focus of future central and local government policies, with related supporting policies expected to continue to be improved. It is expected that more cities will refer to and learn from the practices of Guangdong Province, and introduce detailed operating rules or guidelines. At the same time, providing more policy support for adjustment of regulations and land replacement will also be an important direction to overcome obstacles in cross-regional land replacement. In addition, the China Index believes that efforts can be made in the following aspects to accelerate the pace of special bond acquisitions of existing land and play a greater role in promoting the real estate market to enter a new cycle: First, with regard to the acquisition price, the starting price at the time of land transfer can be used as an important reference for the acquisition price; Second, with regard to the acquisition target, it can be specified to acquire existing land since 2020 to maximize the financial benefits; Third, regarding the type of enterprises, increase support for private enterprises, and promote the land recovered to form effective supply, such as the ratio of local SOEs: central SOEs: private enterprises = 35% : 30% : 35%, and in some regions, the proportion of private enterprises can be increased to over 40%.