Collective Wisdom Consulting: global tablet panel market is expected to grow by 8% in 2024, with an even more optimistic outlook for 2025.

In the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the data from Group Intelligence Consulting, the shipment volume of flat panels reached 62 million pieces, a significant 16% year-on-year growth compared to 54 million pieces in the same period in 2023. This growth trend mainly reflects the recovery of market demand, especially driven by the active promotion of brand flat panel market, the demand for flat panels has received strong support. Looking at the whole year, the total shipment volume of the global flat panel market in 2024 is locked at 261 million pieces, an 8% increase compared to 2023. This growth is attributed to several factors: firstly, the gradual recovery of the global economy has increased consumers' demand for tablet computers; secondly, brand tablet computer brands have further stimulated market demand through expanding application innovation scenarios. In addition, the vigorous development of class tablet market has also contributed to the overall growth, various applications such as learning machines, gaming machines, smart speakers, smart control systems, ordering machines, etc., effectively driving the development of the class tablet panel market. In terms of demand structure, brand tablet computer demand accounts for 60% of the total, while class tablet application demand accounts for 40%. This indicates that although traditional tablet computers are still the main driver of the market, the increasing demand for class tablet devices in different fields is becoming the new Beijing Dynamic Power driving industry growth. In the future, with technological progress and further exploration of market segmentation areas, it is expected that the flat panel and class panel market will continue to expand, bringing more development opportunities to the entire industry. Structural: a-Si LCD Dominates, Mid-to-High-End LTPS-LCD and Oxide-LCD Growth, OLED Faces Cost Challenges and Slower Growth than Expected As the tablet computer market continues to develop, various display technologies are gradually showing distinct trends in their application in different brands and products. The four main backplane technologies: a-Si LCD, LTPS-LCD, Oxide-LCD, and OLED, have different market shares and prospects in the tablet market. The following is a detailed analysis of the application trends of these technologies in the market. a-Si LCD a-Si LCD remains the first choice for most tablet brands, especially in mid-range to low-end products. In 2024, a-Si LCD accounted for approximately 72% of the market share in brand tablets, a decrease of 5 percentage points from 2023. Although its technology is relatively mature and cost-effective, the intensifying brand competition has driven the upgrade of panel technology, gradually reducing the market share of a-Si LCD in brand products. However, in the white-label tablet market, especially in the low-price segment market, a-Si LCD is still the most cost-effective choice. LTPS LCD According to the data from Group Intelligence Consulting, in 2024, the shipment volume of LTPS-LCD flat panels reached 17.3 million pieces, achieving a 10% year-on-year growth. This growth is mainly driven by mid-to-high-end tablet computer brands, especially the increasing demand from Chinese brands such as Huawei and Xiaomi. On the supply side, the market is mainly dominated by three panel manufacturers: CSOT, BOE, and Tianma. However, LTPS-LCD technology faces price competition pressure from Oxide LCD and a-Si LCD in the short term. In addition, changes in demand for LTPS-LCD panels in other application areas such as smartphones, vehicle displays, and laptops have also had an impact on the strategic adjustments of panel manufacturers. In the medium to long term, with the gradual reduction in OLED technology costs, the competitive pressure it poses to LTPS-LCD cannot be underestimated. Despite the challenges mentioned above, it is expected that LTPS-LCD will continue to maintain a certain growth trend by 2025, thanks to its excellent performance in resolution, refresh rate, and other aspects, allowing it to continue to occupy a place in specific market segments. Therefore, despite intense market competition, LTPS-LCD technology still has development potential in the near future. Oxide-LCD Although there are relatively few brands currently using Oxide-LCD technology, its market influence is gradually strengthening. In 2023, this technology accounted for 7% of the overall market share in tablet computer panels, and in 2024, due to Apple's shift to other technologies, its market share slightly decreased to 6%. However, in 2024, the demand from non-Apple brand for Oxide-LCD panels doubled year-on-year, driving the market share of Oxide-LCD in brand tablets to increase from 9% in 2023 to 10% in 2024. Currently, the supply of Oxide-LCD is quite concentrated, with suppliers including LGD and Sharp for Apple, and mainland panel manufacturers such as BOE actively promoting this technology. In addition, other mainland panel manufacturers such as CSOT, HKC, are also actively exploring and implementing Oxide technology in the tablet field. With the continued promotion and technological progress of these manufacturers, it is expected that Oxide LCD will continue to maintain a high growth trend by 2025, and will benefit from market expansion opportunities brought by the upgrade of tablet computer specifications, together with LTPS LCD. OLED 2024 is considered an important year for OLED technology in the tablet market, especially driven by Apple's upgrade of its iPad Pro series to OLED screens. However, despite technological innovation, market demand did not grow as fast as expected, mainly due to high prices. According to the data from Group Intelligence Consulting, the global OLED tablet panel shipment volume in 2024 was 10.5 million pieces, with Apple's demand accounting for about 5.5 million pieces, approximately 52% of the share. Samsung and Huawei accounted for 24% and 21% respectively. Looking towards 2025, although the application of OLED technology in high-end tablets continues to expand, overall panel costs are still high, making it difficult for OLED to achieve significant growth in demand, and it is expected to see a slight increase. The breakthrough growth in the OLED market is expected to gradually show by the end of 2026. Despite the anticipated growth, the high prices present a challenge to the OLED market's expansion.The sales of the Pro series did not meet expectations, but Apple still plans to introduce OLED technology in other models such as the iPad Mini and iPad Air, providing potential for rapid penetration of OLED panel applications. However, the key to achieving wider adoption lies in whether the price of OLED panels can significantly decrease. Only when the price of OLED panels effectively decreases can more brands be encouraged to adopt them.Competition Section: BOE Consolidates Its Leading Position with Market Share Exceeding 50% BOE In 2024, BOE continued to maintain its leading position in the global flat panel display market, with its market share exceeding 52%, consolidating its industry leader position. Throughout the year, BOE achieved growth in both LCD and OLED technologies, especially in the area of high-end technologies, with LTPS LCD and Oxide LCD performing particularly well, increasing by 70% and 195% respectively. In terms of customer structure, BOE maintained long-term stable cooperation with major global flat panel brands, providing a stable source of orders. Furthermore, through channel optimization and adjustments in shipping strategies, BOE further solidified its market share. In 2025, with the official mass production of BOE's new generation LTPS LCD production line B20 and further research and application of Oxide LCD technology, it is expected to continue to consolidate its advantage in the mid to low-end market and gain a larger market share in the high-end segment. LG Display (LGD) In 2024, LGD's flat panel display shipments reached about 27 million units, achieving a 7% year-on-year growth. In terms of demand structure, the demand for OLED panels was around 3.1 million units, accounting for 11% of total shipments. The demand for OLED panels from the iPad Pro series was lower than expected, with actual shipments far below the initial expectations for the year. Looking ahead to 2025, although overall demand from Apple is expected to remain robust, significant growth in demand for OLED panels is unlikely, putting pressure on LGD's growth in the OLED segment. Innolux In 2024, Innolux's flat panel computer shipments were around 26 million units, with its market share dropping from 16% in 2023 to 10% in 2024. This decline was mainly due to the shift in demand from its major customer Samsung to other panel manufacturers such as TCL Huaxing and Huajia Color. Looking ahead to 2025, shipments will mainly come from channel demand, and the scale of shipments may face further pressure. CSOT In 2024, CSOT of TCL Huaxing experienced rapid growth in flat panel computers, with nearly 18 million units shipped throughout the year. In terms of shipment structure, a-Si LCD accounted for 56%, while LTPS LCD accounted for 44%. The mass production of the T9 a-Si LCD production line brought more opportunities for TCL Huaxing. Strengthening partnerships with brands such as Samsung, Huawei, and Honor. Looking ahead to 2025, with a solid customer base and abundant production capacity support, TCL Huaxing is expected to continue growing rapidly and expand its market share. Outlook Section: Optimistic Growth and Structural Changes in the 2025 Flat Panel Display Market In 2025, the outlook for the flat panel display market is optimistic. Further economic recovery globally is expected to drive demand, in addition to the replacement wave formed during the pandemic expected to enter a new upgrade cycle in 2025, further boosting market growth. In the domestic market, government subsidy policies clearly include flat panel computers in the subsidy scope, which will further drive growth in the domestic market. From a technological perspective, brand manufacturers are constantly advancing specifications upgrades, including size enlargement, resolution improvement, higher refresh rates, lower power consumption, and other feature optimizations. This trend not only brings new market opportunities but also intensifies industry competition, urging manufacturers to invest more resources in product innovation and quality control. The impact of government subsidy policies will also lead to changes in the quarterly stocking rhythm, with a gradual slowdown in the quarter-on-quarter decline in the first quarter of 2025 compared to 2024, traditional off-seasons may see a warming trend. However, the supply chain reshaping caused by US tariff policies is changing the landscape of the OEM market, with some brand manufacturers re-adjusting their supply chain layouts to reduce potential cost risks. This may affect brand structures, demand rhythms, and changes in white label demand. White label demand targeting the US market may face challenges due to limited capabilities in shifting supply chains. In summary, despite the overall optimistic market expectations for 2025, there are certain structural changes and fluctuations between supply structures and market demands.