China Automobile Dealers Association: In January, the national comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers was 1.40, an increase of 22.8% month-on-month.

On February 12, 2025, the China Automobile Dealers Association released the results of the "Automobile Dealer Inventory" survey for January 2025: the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers in January was 1.40, an increase of 22.8% compared to the previous month and an increase of 1.4% compared to the same period last year. The inventory level is below the warning line and above the reasonable range. The "Two New" policies in 2025 continue to drive consumption demand to a certain extent in the first quarter. Typically, car consumption is weak after the Spring Festival, and the market is relatively flat. The first week of February was heavily impacted by the Spring Festival holiday, with manufacturers offering promotions and price reductions after the Spring Festival, attracting more consumers to visit stores, but order volume and transaction situation remain sluggish. It is expected that wholesale pressure from manufacturers will increase in February, and the latter half of February will enter a restocking phase, with inventory levels expected to rise. 1. Inventory coefficient comparison and month-on-month increase in January Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the automobile market experienced a seasonal downturn. Currently, most manufacturers have not issued new sales targets, and dealers' promotional intentions are relatively cautious. At the same time, the end of the "Two New" policy at the end of 2024 resulted in some of the pre-Spring Festival car purchasing demand being released early. Although the guidance for the 2025 two new policy was released in the early part of January, before the Spring Festival, only half of the provinces released the subsidy details for local replacement and renewal, and the effectiveness of the new policy has not fully manifested, leading to strong consumer wait-and-see sentiment, a decrease in overall market activity, and a decline in January sales both month-on-month and year-on-year. Overall, it is estimated that the terminal sales of passenger cars in January will be approximately 1.85 million units. Based on this calculation, the total inventory of automobile dealers at the end of January is around 2.59 million units. In order to reduce operational risks, dealers have increased efforts to clear inventory before the Spring Festival, operating with lighter inventory and showing a lack of strong willingness to restock. 2. High-end luxury and imported, joint venture, and independent brand inventory coefficients increase month-on-month The inventory coefficient for high-end luxury & imported brands is 1.17, an increase of 6.4% month-on-month; the inventory coefficient for joint venture brands is 1.15, an increase of 9.5% month-on-month; and the inventory coefficient for independent brands is 1.64, an increase of 35.5% month-on-month. 3. Brands with the highest inventory depth in January The shortened effective sales time during the January Spring Festival holiday resulted in a significant decrease in sales compared to December of the previous year. At the same time, some car companies reduced their inventory at the end of the year, leading to relatively higher inventory levels for some brands. In January, there were 12 brands with inventory depths exceeding 2 months, with the brand with the highest inventory depth being Jaguar Land Rover, SAIC-GM Wuling.