Hong Kong stock concept tracking | Trump's tariff policy may disrupt global oil demand and supply. Short-term tanker freight rates are likely to rise. (List of concept stocks included)

President Trump's series of tariff policies may continue to reshape the global oil market. During his campaign, Trump called himself "Tariff Man" and announced a 25% import tariff on products from Canada and Mexico, with a 10% tariff on Canadian energy products. He later announced that the tariffs on the two countries would be delayed for 30 days. The United States imports about 4 million barrels of oil from Canada every day, and slightly less than 1 million barrels from Mexico. Analysts Fredrik Dybwad and Nils Thommesen of the Norwegian ship brokerage company Fearnleys said that oil trade could become more complex, and oil transport distances could increase. The two analysts pointed out that the crude oil imported from Canada and Mexico by the United States is widely used, meaning that the demand for these crude oils will not disappear. If American buyers start looking for other sources of supply, they may find new sources in South America and the Middle East. The hammer of US tariffs may also push OPEC and its allies to take action. Mukesh Sahdev, Global Head of Oil Commodities Markets at Rystad, said that OPEC+ faces a new challenge with Trump imposing tariffs on major oil-producing countries, which could disrupt global oil demand and supply. Although the organization may cancel production cuts to maintain market stability, tariffs on Canada and Mexico may force the two countries to readjust their crude oil flows, affecting US refineries and potentially leading to price increases. Perhaps, OPEC+ may proceed cautiously, stabilizing prices while responding to geopolitical tensions. Uncertainty remains a key factor in the tanker market, and multiple factors could significantly alter market trends. For now, the future path is still unclear, bringing short-term upward risks to oil tanker freight rates. Related Hong Kong stocks in the oil shipping sector: COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation (01138): COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation announced that it expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately RMB 3.96 billion in 2024, an increase of approximately 17.2% compared to the same period in the previous year. Morgan Stanley believes that US sanctions may gradually drive the "shadow fleet" out of the market, benefiting the legitimate oil tanker market. The bank believes that negative sentiment arising from weaker-than-expected performance in the fourth quarter of 2024 may improve. The bank holds a positive view on COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation.