Crowd intelligence consulting: it is predicted that global car sales will reach 93.5 million vehicles in 2025, an increase of 3.3% year-on-year.

According to the group intelligence consultation data, global car sales in 2024 will reach 90.5 million units, an increase of 2.3% compared to the previous year. The Chinese market plays the most critical role in the recovery of the global car market, and as the world's largest automotive market, the rapid development of the Chinese automotive industry in electrification and intelligence has not only changed the domestic market landscape but also brought new momentum to the global automotive industry. According to group intelligence consulting forecasts, global car sales will reach 93.5 million units in 2025, an increase of 3.3% compared to the previous year, with the mainland China region experiencing the most significant growth, with an expected year-on-year sales increase of 7.6% to reach a market size of 33.8 million units. The penetration of electric vehicles in China exceeded expectations, with plug-in hybrids & extended-range models becoming the focus of car manufacturers. Looking back at 2024, the transformation process of Chinese car companies towards electrification has been faster than expected. According to group intelligence consultation data, in 2024, new energy vehicle sales in mainland China reached 12.87 million units, an increase of approximately 36% year-on-year, with the penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeding 40% for the first time, and in the passenger car sector, this figure has already exceeded 50%. With the continuous breakthroughs in lithium battery technology and cost reductions, electric vehicles are accelerating their popularization. Range anxiety and charging efficiency, which have plagued consumers in the past, will no longer be the main concerns. Major car manufacturers are increasing their efforts towards electrification and launching more competitive electric models, leading to intense market competition. According to group intelligence consultation forecasts, new energy vehicle sales in mainland China in 2025 are expected to reach 17.6 million units, with a year-on-year growth of over 35%, and the penetration rate is expected to exceed 50% for the first time. Plug-in hybrids and extended-range models are gradually becoming the focus of car manufacturers in the new energy phase-out competition. In terms of the vehicle structure in the domestic passenger car sector, plug-in hybrids & extended-range models have seen rapid growth starting in the 2024. While pure electric models will be the better strategic direction for new energy vehicles after further breakthroughs in battery technology, we are currently in the middle of the transition from the fuel era to electrification. The vast traditional fuel car consumer group still needs time and actual experience to gradually accept the transformation from pure gasoline to pure electric. The era of hybrid electric vehicles is expected to continue for a long time. According to group intelligence consultation data, the proportion of plug-in hybrids & extended-range vehicles in new energy vehicle sales in 2024 reached 40%, an increase of about 10 percentage points from 2023. With numerous domestic independent car brands following the pace of companies like NIO and Huawei to increase the introduction of extended-range power new models, it is expected that by the end of 2025, the proportion of hybrid vehicles in new energy vehicles will continue to increase to about 45%. The price war intensifies, highlighting the price-performance advantages of independent brands, while joint venture brands face a survival crisis. With the arrival of 2025, the Chinese car market is undergoing a more profound transformation, especially with the significant changes in the competitive landscape between independent brands and joint venture brands. Against the backdrop of the rapid popularization of new energy vehicles, Chinese independent brands, with their first-mover advantage and technological accumulation, have made significant progress in gaining market share. According to group intelligence consultation data, the penetration rate of independent brand vehicles in mainland China reached 65% in 2024, and it is expected to increase to 75% by the end of 2025. Independent brand models are not only beginning to dominate the domestic market but also gaining traction in international markets, especially in the European Union, Southeast Asia, Latin America, and other regions have seen strong growth. In contrast, the market share of German, Japanese and other brands that used to dominate the domestic market continues to decline, Korean, French, and other brands are nearing exit from the Chinese market, and American brands are relatively stable due to Tesla's position in the electric vehicle sector. Joint venture automakers are currently in a critical stage of electrification transformation and face issues with relatively insufficient product competitiveness. Although some joint venture brands such as Dongfeng Nissan, GAC Toyota, Honda, etc., have increased their investment in intelligent driving systems and introduced multiple new energy models, the overall penetration rate of new energy vehicles by joint venture brands remains far lower than that of independent brands. The second half of the new energy phase-out competition begins, with intelligent driving becoming a key focus for users. The group intelligence consultation looked at the sales of major new energy vehicle companies in mainland China in 2024, with BYD Company Limited still leading the sales with around 4.26 million units, and traditional car manufacturers such as Geely, Changan, Chery also performing well. New players in the market like NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto began to ramp up their efforts in the second half of 2024 and achieved their annual targets gradually. In addition, cross-border companies like Xiaomi and Huawei quickly ramped up their products and their models became the hottest topics in 2024. While several car manufacturers have shown their achievements, some companies have started to show signs of operational issues one by one and are gradually becoming a part of the history of the development of the automotive industry. In terms of specific manufacturers: BYD Company Limited (BYD) (Including BYD Company Limited + Tangshi + Formula Leopard + Look Up) With the success of models like the Seagull, QinL, and Haimao 06 in the A0 and A+ markets, BYD Company Limited's automotive sales in 2024 continued to reach a historical high of 4.26 million units, a 41% year-on-year increase, maintaining the top position in global and domestic new energy vehicles. In 2025, BYD Company Limited will focus on deploying intelligent driving features, with high-end brands like Look Up, Formula Leopard, and Tangshi moving forward to fully deploy Urban NOA functions, while also aggressively lowering the price of high-speed NOA functions to vehicles below 100,000 RMB. With BYD Company Limited's influence, other domestic traditional car manufacturers such as Changan, Chery, Geely, etc., will accelerate the penetration of intelligent driving features into mid-to-low-end models, ushering in the era of universal autonomous driving. According to group intelligence consultation forecasts, BYD Company Limited's new car sales in China in 2025 will continue to grow at a high rate.Sales are expected to reach 5.5 million units, a 29% year-on-year increase, with over 60% of new cars expected to have autonomous driving capabilities. Tesla's sales in China in 2024 are estimated to be around 920,000 units, a 3% decrease compared to the previous year. Due to the lack of major product updates in the past three years, Tesla's product competitiveness has gradually been surpassed by domestic new energy brands. However, it is expected to maintain significant sales in 2024, mainly due to the continued 5-year interest-free policy support and consumer recognition and high tolerance for brand mistakes. Moving into 2025, with the launch of the renewed version of Tesla Model Y, market attention is expected to be regained. According to crowd intelligence consulting forecasts, Tesla's sales in China in 2025 are expected to reach 1.05 million units, a 15% year-on-year increase. One of the driving forces of this growth is the three-year update of Model Y and consumers' increasing emphasis on brand stability in the phase of elimination of car companies. Looking ahead, the introduction of the more affordable Model Q model will further expand Tesla's market space.Geely Auto (Geely) (including Geely, Galaxy, Lynk & Co, Zeeker) In 2024, Geely's domestic sales of new energy vehicles reached 900,000 units, an 89% year-on-year increase, making it the highest domestic carmaker in new energy vehicle sales outside of BYD Company Limited. In the past, Geely had many sub-brands, leading to resource shortages and overlapping strategic planning. However, in the second half of 2024, with the strategic reorganization of the group, a clear positioning of the Geely-Galaxy-Lynk & Co-Zeeker four major brand levels has been formed. In the future, in the market of various car models, Geely will compete head-to-head with BYD Company Limited. From a product perspective, the high cost-effective models such as Starship and Starwish launched by Geely in the second half of 2024 have had a significant impact on BYD Company Limited in the 100,000 yuan market segment. In terms of technology, in order to compete with BYD Company Limited's proud DMI technology, Geely is iterating from multi-speed DHT hybrid technology to single-speed EMI technology, optimizing both product cost and reliability. This is a key factor in Geely's ability to sustain price wars with BYD Company Limited. According to Group Intel's forecast, Geely's domestic new energy sales under its brands are expected to reach 1.5 million units in 2025, a 66% year-on-year increase, while also working together to further suppress joint venture brands. Chongqing Changan Automobile (Changan) (including Changan, Deep Blue, Qiyuan) In 2024, domestic sales of new energy vehicles by Chongqing Changan Automobile reached approximately 610,000 units, a 47% year-on-year increase. Chongqing Changan Automobile continues to use the Deep Blue brand as a backbone in the new energy track, continuously updating and iterating on extended-range models and new product planning. Meanwhile, the Qiyuan brand serves as a strategic complement to the Deep Blue brand, mainly targeting the pure electric market. With its excellent product strength and cost-effectiveness, as well as cooperation with Huawei in the field of intelligent driving, Chongqing Changan Automobile is expected to continue to achieve high growth in the field of new energy in the future. According to Group Intel's forecast, Chongqing Changan Automobile's domestic new energy sales are expected to reach 1 million units in 2025, a 65% year-on-year increase. In addition, intelligent driving and cabin are also key focuses of Chongqing Changan Automobile's 2025 layout. In the field of intelligent driving, Chongqing Changan Automobile will gradually extend high-speed NOA functions to 100,000 yuan-level models to maintain competitiveness in the intelligent driving track against competitors. In the cabin field, in addition to continuous optimization of the vehicle's system, there is also a pursuit of large space and high comfort, which will align with Ideal Auto to form a top 4 pattern in the extended-range market in 2025. Ideal Auto (Li Auto) Ideal Auto's sales in 2024 were approximately 500,000 units, a 33% year-on-year increase, falling short of the 700,000 unit sales target set at the beginning of 2024. After entering 2024, Ideal Auto faced encirclement in the extended-range field by Wanjie and Zerun, with market share in the 300,000 to 400,000 yuan price range being gradually divided by Wanjie, while in the under 200,000 yuan price range, the "half-price Ideal" LEAPMOTOR dominated the market. Therefore, Ideal Auto faces a great challenge to continue realizing its vision of high growth in the extended-range field. In the pure electric field, the "i" series models that were originally planned to be launched in mid-2024 were postponed to 2025 due to the mediocre market response compared to Mega. Therefore, although Ideal Auto achieved sales growth in the past year by lowering the average price of its products, it appears somewhat weaker compared to its competitors. According to Group Intel's forecast, Ideal Auto's sales in 2025 are expected to be 640,000 units, only a 27% year-on-year increase. One of the reasons is that the company will face more competitive models in the extended-range field, such as Wanjie M8, Zhijie R7, Deep Blue S09, Tengshi N9, Lynk 900, and in the pure electric field, the "i" series models may have difficulty gaining the acceptance of most consumers similar to the "L" series, making it challenging to continue achieving high sales growth. Hongmeng Intelligent Travel (HIMA) (including Wanjie, Zhijie, Enjoy World, Honor World) The Hongmeng Intelligent Travel brand was created by Huawei, and because Huawei did not obtain direct car-making qualifications, it formed an automotive ecosystem alliance with four major domestic car companies. Different from the "HI" model that cooperates with Avita, Lantu, and Jihuxi, the "Four Realms" models under Hongmeng Intelligent Travel are all led by Huawei in design, development, quality management, and channel sales, and are produced by Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock, Chery, Beiqi, and Jianghuai respectively. With Huawei's brand effect and the wide acceptance of ADS intelligent driving, Hongmeng Intelligent Travel's sales reached 450,000 units in 2024, an increase of over 300% year-on-year, with models such as Wanjie M9, Wanjie M7, and Zhijie R7 becoming the best-selling models in various segments. According to Group Intel's forecast, entering 2025, with the launch of more models and the iteration of existing products, Hongmeng Intelligent Travel's sales are expected to reach 950,000 units, a 110% year-on-year increase, with the biggest growth expected to come from the Wanjie M8 model. Chery Automobile (Chery) (including Chery, Startimes, Jietu, iCAR)In 2024, Chery's domestic sales of new energy vehicles reached approximately 450,000 units, an increase of over 250% compared to the previous year. Although Chery is a leading carmaker in terms of export volume in China, it has not neglected the domestic market. Before 2024, Chery mainly relied on A00-class mini cars in the domestic new energy race to gain market share. However, with other carmakers introducing higher cost-effective competitive products, its market share gradually weakened. In 2024, Chery focused on developing its own product line to enhance competitiveness, with key emphasis on new energy series such as "Chery Fengyun," "Jietu Shanhai," and "iCAR." The "Fengyun" and "Shanhai" series focus on plug-in hybrid models as the core, forming a dual model strategy with their sister fuel models, gradually transitioning towards electrification. Additionally, Chery's high-end brand Star Tour Star Genesis will learn from the cooperation models with Huawei, further elevating the brand. According to Group Intelligence's forecast, Chery's new energy vehicle sales in 2025 are expected to reach 700,000 units, a 56% year-on-year growth. Great Wall Motor (GWM) (including Haval + WEY + Tank + Euler) In 2024, Great Wall Motor's domestic sales of new energy vehicles reached approximately 320,000 units, achieving a year-on-year growth of only 23% during the rapid penetration period of new energy. The Haval brand used to focus on the fuel SUV market but lacked compelling model names after transitioning to new energy, losing its market dominance due to increased competition. In addition, the Euler brand excelled in the small car segment in the past but has not continued to innovate in recent years, leaving it behind competitors. For Great Wall Motor, the Tank brand specializing in off-road areas currently carries a heavy burden. As there are not many competitors in this niche market yet, the Tank series will soon face challenges with the launch of BYD Company Limited's Qin Leopard brand. According to Group Intelligence's forecast, Great Wall's new energy vehicle sales in 2025 are expected to see little growth, with sales projected at 380,000 units, with a year-on-year growth rate below 20%. LEAPMOTOR LEAPMOTOR had a breakthrough in 2024, reaching sales of 290,000 units, a year-on-year increase of over 100%. LEAPMOTOR's success lies first in its self-developed full-stack strategy, and secondly in product decisions, learning extensively from Ideal Auto's philosophy, prioritizing models such as C10, C11, C16 for the wider family travel market. Thanks to the excellent cost-effectiveness brought by the self-developed full-stack system and precise product positioning, LEAPMOTOR performed exceptionally well in the market over the past year, attracting the attention of international giants. Stellantis Group's strategic investment will further propel LEAPMOTOR into the global market, with promising future prospects. According to Group Intelligence's forecast, LEAPMOTOR is expected to continue doubling its sales in 2025, with sales projected at 580,000 units. Apart from sustained growth in the domestic market, its global models also have ample development opportunities in overseas markets. Xpeng Motors Xpeng Motors had sales of 190,000 units in 2024, a 34% increase compared to the previous year. In terms of sales volume, Xpeng's growth curve over the past year is similar to NIO's, but their business strategies differ significantly. Unlike NIO's focus on the high-end brand strategy, with the listing and delivery of Xiaomi cars, Xpeng faced significant competition in the market segment under 200,000 yuan. To sustain brand operations and gain more market share, Xpeng shifted its product strategy to focus more on the market below 200,000 yuan. The success of the MONA 03 and P7+ models launched in the second half of 2024 further validates this strategy. According to Group Intelligence's forecast, with the introduction of the new P7i, G7, G6 models featuring the pure visual smart driving solution, as well as the first extended-range model, Xpeng Motors will continue to leverage its cost-effectiveness advantage, with sales expected to reach 360,000 units in 2025, a year-on-year growth rate close to 90%. As the investment from the Volkswagen Group, Xpeng Motors is poised to make breakthroughs on the international stage. Xiaomi Motors Xiaomi Motors achieved sales of 140,000 units in 2024 solely with the SU7 model, becoming a new force in the automotive industry to reach over 100,000 annual sales in the fastest time since the launch of its first model. The success of Xiaomi Motors can be attributed to various factors, from product performance, quality management to marketing efforts, all contributing to its success. Its product design has also been well received by consumers, a key factor in its success. According to Group Intelligence's forecast, with the release of the YU7 model to fill the gap in its SUV lineup, Xiaomi Motors' sales are expected to reach 350,000 units in 2025, a staggering 150% year-on-year growth. Currently, the biggest constraint on Xiaomi Motors sales is the capacity of its factories. With further expansion of the factory, Xiaomi Motors' market performance is expected to continue to improve. Brand layout reshaping, carmakers need to adapt to market changes and accelerate transformation 2025 is an important year for accelerating the restructuring of the competitive landscape for Chinese domestic brands. Facing fierce market competition, the rise of domestic brands is not merely reflected in the growth of sales but also in establishing a strong brand image gradually through technological innovation and service upgrades. With technological breakthroughs and brand positioning, domestic brands will occupy a larger market share in the mid-to-high-end segment. As more domestic brands accelerate their internationalization, their influence in the global automotive market will continue to strengthen. In order for joint venture brands to maintain competitiveness in this changing landscape, they need to proactively adapt to changes in market demand, set aside their egos, and accelerate the pace of transformation, increasing investment in new energy technologies and intelligent connectivity to secure their position in the fiercely competitive market.