BOCOM INTL: Industrial mother machine related data continues to improve, and the industry's prosperity in 2025 is expected to further increase.

BOCOM INTL released a research report, stating that looking ahead to 2025, as the demand for equipment upgrades is released and the effects of incremental policies take effect, downstream demand for machine tools will continue to recover. At the same time, with the continuous renewal cycle of the machine tool industry, as well as the rapid development of emerging industries such as aerospace, aviation, and humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation, the market's demand for high-end CNC machine tools is expected to continue to grow, potentially driving significant improvements in the operating performance of machine tool companies. Event: On January 24th, the China Machine Tool Industry Association released a brief analysis of the 2024 customs data for tool imports and exports. In 2024, China's tool export value was 25.653 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%; tool import value was 8.525 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.66%. The export value is 3.01 times the import value, with a larger increase in exports and a slight decrease in imports. BOCOM INTL's main points are as follows: In 2024, most types of tools experienced year-on-year growth in export value, while there remains a significant difference in the unit price of imported and exported tools. According to the association's statistics, in 2024, most types of tools saw an increase in export value compared to the previous year. For example, drill bits increased by 10.56%, other milling tools by 18.65%, super-hard material working parts for boring or reaming tools by 24.22%, unnamed interchangeable tools for other material working parts by 13.13%, coated blades by 4.98%, non-coated blades by 10.34%, and taps by 0.29%. In terms of the unit price of tool imports and exports, products with the same commodity code show that imported prices are significantly higher than exported prices. For example, the average import price of coated blades is approximately 2.92 times that of exported prices; the average import price of non-coated blades is about 4.21 times that of exported prices; and the average import price of taps is even 8.44 times that of exported prices. In addition, there are significant changes in the export prices of some types of tools; for example, the unit price of milling cutters decreased by 4.74%, drill bits by 0.24%, taps by 6.72%, bimetal band saw blades by 8.62%, coated blades by 2.4%, while the unit price of non-coated blades increased by 2%. In December 2024, machine tool exports increased by +21.7% year-on-year, with both export value and quantity achieving three consecutive months of positive growth. According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs, China's machine tool exports in 2024 showed good growth, with the total annual export amount reaching 11.267 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 7%. In December, the export amount was 1.172 billion US dollars, a significant year-on-year increase of 21.7%, maintaining three consecutive months of positive growth. In terms of export quantity, China's total annual machine tool exports in 2024 were 18.26 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7%; in December, the export quantity was 1.66 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, also achieving three consecutive months of positive growth. The above data indicates that China's machine tool exports have not only increased in quantity and amount, but the product structure is also continuously optimized, with a higher proportion of high value-added machine tool products. In addition, in 2024, the average price of exported machine tools in China was $617.04 per unit, a year-on-year increase of 2.02%. Looking ahead, China's machine tool industry is expected to gain more market share in the international high-end market and further enhance the international competitiveness of China's machine tool industry. In addition, in terms of machine tool types, in December, China's cutting and forming machine tool production increased by 35% and 14.3% respectively, achieving double-digit growth and a gradual recovery trend. With the assistance of policies, China's machine tool industry has transformed from quantity-oriented to quality-oriented, and the trend of high-quality development in the industry has emerged. In recent years, to promote the high-quality development of China's machine tool industry, a series of continuous policies have been introduced, further reinforced in 2024, such as placing CNC machine tools in the encouraged category in the "Industrial Structure Adjustment Guideline (2024)"; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and seven other departments issued a plan to promote the application of machine tools and carry out "industrial base + demand" matchmaking activities. With the joint efforts of multiple policies, China's machine tool industry has significantly deepened and enhanced in areas such as collaborative innovation in the industry chain, supply-demand matching, independent innovation of products and core components, and services in key areas. Furthermore, as China's machine tool industry shifts from quantity-oriented to quality-oriented development, Chinese machine tool companies have actively participated in exploring overseas markets; this has not only brought opportunities for their own development but also provided important support for enhancing the international competitiveness of China's machine tool industry, expanding market share, and achieving sustainable high-quality development. Investment Recommendations: Watch related targets for machine tools (Kede Numerical Control (688305.SH), Ningbo Haitian Precision Machinery (601882.SH), Neway Cnc Equipment (Suzhou) Co., Ltd (688697.SH), Yuhuan CNC Machine Tool (002903.SZ), Hiecise Precision Equipment Co., Ltd. (300809.SZ), Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share (000837.SZ)), numerical control systems (Wuhan Huazhong Numerical Control (300161.SZ), Googol Technology (301510.SZ)), tools (Beijing Worldia Diamond Tools (688028.SH), Zhuzhou Huarui Precision Cutting Tools.Co., Ltd (688059.SH), OKE Precision Cutting)Tools (688308.SH) and the automated parts procurement platform (DongGuan YiHeDa Automation (301029.SZ)).Risk Warning: risks such as the economic recovery falling short of expectations, the implementation speed of stimulus policies falling short of expectations, the process of technological innovation falling short of expectations, and escalating overseas trade frictions.