The survey shows that tariffs exacerbate inflationary pressures, and the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in the next meeting or postpone until the second quarter.

The survey shows that in the face of rising inflation threats, economists predict that the Federal Reserve will wait until the next quarter to cut interest rates again, while previously they expected the Federal Reserve to cut rates in March. Since Donald Trump won the US presidential election in November last year, economists have raised their inflation forecasts because they are concerned that Trump's policies, especially his tariff policy, may rekindle price pressures in the economy. After cumulative interest rate cuts of 100 basis points from September to December last year, including Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve officials recently stated that they were "not in a hurry" to cut interest rates further. Due to a strong job market and continued robust consumer spending, many economists believe that the US economy is in a favorable position and there is almost no need to lower interest rates. So far, there have been new tariff news every week. Trump said on Sunday that he will impose a new 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum. The plan to impose tariffs on Mexico and Canada has been postponed to March 1, but an additional 10% tariff will be imposed on goods imported from China. Chief international economist at Dutch International Group, James Knightley, said, "Tariffs can lead to inflation, and may have adverse effects on economic growth. This uncertainty means that the Federal Reserve can only wait and see what will happen." He said, "Donald Trump's policy priorities have many variables, some of which are even contradictory. This is very challenging, so we have very low confidence in any forecasts of the US economy and global economic activity." In a survey in January, nearly 60% of economists expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in March, but in a survey conducted from February 4 to 10, opinions on when the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates next diverged. Two-thirds of forecasters (out of 101) expected at least one rate cut by the end of June, with 22 predicting a cut in March and 45 predicting a cut in the second quarter. Among the 99 economists who made predictions for the end of 2025, only 17 said the next rate cut would take place in the second half of this year, while 16 said there would be no cuts this year. Interest rate futures prices indicate a slightly higher than 50% likelihood of a rate cut by mid-2025. Although the median forecast in the survey predicts two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, bringing rates to 3.75%-4.00% by the end of 2025, the forecast range is wide, with the lowest at 3.00%-3.25% and the highest at 4.50%-4.75%. There is no majority view. But economists are more certain about inflation pressures. From the survey conducted last October (before the US presidential election) to the latest survey, over 90% of the respondents have raised their annual inflation forecasts for 2025, with an average increase of about 40 basis points. Neil Shearing, Chief Economist at Capital Economics, pointed out, "This uncertainty is likely to keep Federal Reserve officials on the sidelines in the coming months, and if high tariffs are ultimately imposed, the resulting rise in inflation will prevent the Federal Reserve from further easing policy in the remaining time until 2025." The median in the survey shows that after achieving annualized growth of 2.3% in the last quarter, the US economy will grow by 2.2% this year, and by 2.0% in 2026, higher than the Federal Reserve officials' current forecast of non-inflationary economic growth rates of 1.8% for the next few years. The US unemployment rate dropped slightly to 4% last month, and is expected to be 4.2% and 4.1% this year and next year respectively.